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  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    I've already told you this, but the historical ENSO-N. Pacific trough correlation is -0.38 for Oct-Nov combined and -0.32 for Dec.
  3. psuhoffman
    My thoughts on winter are probably in line with most people. The nino is likely to be the dominant player. Add in the fact the pacific basin is warm EVERYWHERE and it's likely the dominant airmass for winter is going to be pac puke. Add in the extreme east based nature of the current super nino and my fear is the north pacific low is going to be both on steroids' and banked up right against the pacific NW coast, similar to 1998. What all that means imo is likely a warm wet winter overall. A lot of STJ systems coming at us from the gulf but a lack of arctic air. I was in central PA for 1998 and we actually got above normal snowfall but it almost didn't feel like it because so many of the storms were a 4-5" mixed bag when it was frustrating because the track of the storm should have been a 12" plus snowstorm. And even when we did get a decent snow it was usually gone within 1-2 days because it was so mild. I expect something similar this winter. One caveat, the last 2 nina's we had (both during this current extreme hostile PDO cycle) the enso failed to couple fully with the mid latitude longwave patter. I saw various excuses for this. However, I've also seen some speculation, by people way smarter than me, that some of the long term changes in the pacific, the warming of the north pacific, the expansion of the hadley cell, the compression of the north pacific jet, and the changing SST profile in the IOD region have all combined to mute enso's impact on the longwave pattern. If this is true, then all bets are off, but the default pattern over the last 10 years has been awful for snow, so that is not necessarily a good thing.
  4. Typhoon Tip
    You know notice I am not suggesting or saying at all, that it won't be advantageous to pattern orientation ( depending on what one wants - ) ? I'm not sure it makes a difference. That's why I said 'straw man' above. Not sure anyone's really arguing. I just don't like the untrue application/attribution thing, and I read/heard a bunch of it from 'social media celebrities' Either correlates to a favorable pattern. Think getting there via different wholesale means. I would "possssibly" argue that the bottom-->up variety is more conducive to NE Pacific heights ...but you can see how therein in drives almost no difference for the N/A continent. Contrasting, the -AO forcing from a SSW full cycle forcing has it's own variability. In 2006-2007, for example there was a very impressive SSW museum piece event, Yet, the incredible balmy historic warmth ongoing across the N/A mid latitudes actually persisted for 2 weeks longer - really - than it should have. The blocking and cold unloaded over in Russia/Siberia first, because the planetary wave # was destructively interfering the genesis of cold conveyor over on our side of the hemisphere. That changed of course...we end up with some winter in February that year... Point being, these correlators for bringing cold into mid latitudes are not single sourced, as well, can vary in and of themselves.
  5. LakePaste25
    Models keep it going far longer than “a few days.” Sure we can see if they verify first, but if it persists then it’s the December Nino pattern a full month early.
  6. nw baltimore wx
    Whatever it takes.
  7. LakePaste25
    Completely disagree.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Not really. Strong few-day troughs are common in October.
  9. bluewave
    We can say that the pattern the last few weeks has been reversed from the same time period back in 1997. The strongest 500 mb trough and STJ is near the Southwest rather than the Southeast leading to the flooding and severe weather more focused in the Southwest. This is why the CONUS and in particular the Southeast has been so much warmer this October than it was back in 1997. The long range seasonal models from a month ago missed the more Southwest focused heavy rainfall. Same for the EPS weeklies beyond week 1 issued in early October. So we’ll just have to monitor going forward to see if some elements of this early season pattern continue. October 12th to 23rd 2026 500 mb pattern compared to 1997 October seasonal rainfall forecast issued in early September Verification
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    The Nino is not impacting the N. Pacific that much. If we can get a sustained -AO period, I don't see why it can't get cool, even Dec.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    2023 and 2001....
  12. Layman
    Juggernaut...my brother and I made the mistake of trying that once somewhere around 1994-1996. One of the huge snowy winters we had back then. We snowboard. I remember getting to escape from it somewhere (Solitude maybe?) but it was torturous. We're big fans of Great Eastern and have been able to find a couple really nice and long connectors to make it a 12-15 minute ride at a good clip. The lift to slope time works out to be a very reasonable balance.
  13. LakePaste25
    Yeah, for us anyway. I could still see areas in the upper Midwest that are further removed from CAD effects and coastals threatening records. I did make that distinction awhile ago. Of course places such as International Falls have very cold climates to begin with, so 50+ degrees is far more anomalous there.
  14. jconsor
    The same guy (who uses statistical techniques to do long-range forecasts) has been flagging a high risk for a Nov SSW since the beginning of the summer: https://x.com/Statisticizer/status/2106770331985748036. He also suggests a high risk for a SSW in Feb: https://x.com/Statisticizer/status/2114022327008612489
  15. MJO812
    Bam on board
  16. jconsor
    Some interesting analog years with weak strat PV/SSW in here: https://x.com/Statisticizer/status/2114434656158224475
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, it probably won't be record setting....not intending to imply it's a physical implausibility. I get how anomalous this is...could also be a record deal nationally, but not in any one region.
  18. Guest

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  19. Typhoon Tip
    I realize you're just talking/rhetoric here but ... there's a non-zero order probability that when the +ENSO is finally "pattern forcing" ...what emerges is shock-and-awe. Or not ... just sayn'
  20. GaWx
    John, There is a record weak SPV for early Nov being modeled, which would result in anomalies of ~-20 m/s. It may not result in an actual wind reversal (<0 m/s), but, say, a +5 m/s event would still be record shattering.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    John, how do you feel about last winter's early season warming? I know there was some skepticism there as well, and it ultimately (at least partially) led to a colder turn in January. I'm not trying to gaslight you or anything, either...honest inquiry, as the stat stuff is often so complicated and ambiguous.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely 100%...this is what I was trying to explain to Forky. The pattern will still suck, but it won't be record setting.
  23. Keith Central PA
    Both December 82 and 2015 had blowtorches for Christmas, which usually happens in strong nino's..If we can avoid that I guess you can call it a victory of sorts. I'm just trying to find any light of hope from this impeding disaster.
  24. psuhoffman
    I appreciate your point and 10 or 20 years ago I would have agreed and I've even written things very similar. I have a sociology degree so I can even confirm everything you say is clinically correct. However, I have become jaded, and my definition of stupid now includes people who are unable to get their heads out of their own arse and realize when they are being manipulated. And yes I realize that definition of stupid means about 50% of the human population is stupid. I grew up in a conservative Christian family. I was forced to attend Sunday school, until they asked me to stop because I would point out God was a terrorist monster for killing all the Egyptian first born children over a political agenda when he could have just snapped his fingers and got what he wanted. Apparently that wasn't the message they wanted me to get from the passover lesson. But my point is I was subjected to the same attempts at programming and propaganda that every other conservative was. And I will admit it took me a while to overcome it. When I was 15 I did something horrible. A boy who was clearly gay tried to be my friend and I avoided him because of how the other students were teasing me over being nice to him. I was a coward. I am ashamed that I was too weak at that age to tell the rest of them to go F themselves for how they were treating that boy. But I eventually did grow up, realized what utter BS conservatives were selling, and overcame the programming. So I have absolutely no sympathy for the people who choose to remain in that place mentally. Lastly for the record I am no longer trying to change anyone's mind. I spend 20 years doing that and it's useless. I am living my life and telling those people what I think of them, and they can go F themselves. I no longer care enough to try to save them from themselves. They can keep voting for policies that F them over for all I care. F around and find out! I do feel bad for the good people who get hurt by them but I've realized I can only do what I can do on an individual personal level. I donate my time and money to organizations that make a difference. I make sure day to day to be kind and generous to people. I coach. I teach. I make sure my children will NEVER by like those people. But unfortunately I think that no matter what there are too many stupid people who will always be easy to manipulate by powerful people with nefarious motives and that struggle is inevitable .
  25. LakePaste25
    One reason I am starting to lean away from a December 2015 torch is that we should see a more active southern stream in the SE US. It will be “only” mild/warm. The lack of active southern stream in 12/2015 caused the typical Canadian ridge to go much further south compared to December 2024 or December 1997. Part of this will be due to lack of MC forcing and more E Pac forcing, which will help sustain a more active southern stream in the SE. So the same E based orientation that makes it more difficult to get snow will also make it more difficult to get a record 2015 torch.
  26. Typhoon Tip
    yeah I'm not attempting to 'take credit' don't give a shit. It's probably obvious to most anyway ... it was a question that popped into head back in summer actually ha. when it was 89 F
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