All Activity

4:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 Location: 26.4°N 88.0°W Moving: NNE at 15 mph Min pressure: 963 mb Max sustained: 110 mph

Satellite continues to improve, and we have a warming clear eye now. Category 3 is looking much more likely. If they don't pull the trigger in the 4AM CDT package, they probably will later with an intermediate advisory.

This was a great read. Thank you for the indepth intelligent and fact based response. I am of very ordinarily intellect, just always fascinated by weather but these videos are getting out of control.

While severe is possible over the northern and central half later next week (esp. with the PNA heading back into + phase), the bigger story is looking to be Fall coming back with a nice bang over the entire state. With substantially below normal temps next weekend (Oct 17th - 18th). AI/IFS models have been trending colder (now into the 30s), on Sunday morning's lows. This happened in the last (strengthening) EN Fall of 2023 before October ended, when much below normal temps happened everywhere in the state. But, ensembles are projecting the AO to remain in a modest + phase until about Oct 20th. So am not very convinced on seeing 30s in the state just yet. Fall should be very noticeable over the entire state by next weekend either way, with both below normal daytime highs and nighttime lows.

Just woke up after a short night of sleep. Overnight recon has been interesting. Might have a Major at the 4AM adv. Possible landfall between Baldwin county AL & FWB FL if I were to hazard a guess currently.

Very good coverage of beneficial rainfall in the state the past week. Without causing major flood or runoff issues, surprisingly.

Yeah I mean... Here is a good example, from the time we moved to Vermont: '23-24: 42.5", -14.0" below avg (avg. 56.5" imby) '24-25: 60.1", +3.6" above avg '25-26: 64.3", +7.8" above avg Two above average seasons Yet the net is still -2.6" across the three years. Weather is dynamic and fluid, so even in blow torch winters (like this coming one) there will be chances and breaks in that pattern that yeild chances. Any snow is good snow in cases like this. Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

Best structure Isaias has had in its lifecycle so far. Perhaps a window here for some brief intensification prior to increasing shear today.

For those who didn’t realize it, 1905’s very late 1st on record H was similarly powerful to Isaias with it peaking as a MH (cat 3) and that was also during El Niño. *Edited: it was not the last storm of the season at genesis but was when it degenerated below TC status at its end.

Now the NCEP systems have rolled out the RRFS ensemble members (I guess,) and the NAM, for now, has not disappeared.

I am not impressed with the satellite signature.

surprise hailstorms in Iowa

Amazing Liberty! 20 post responses within one post……. Should we contact Guinness? As long as a ‘Daily Post Within A Post limited member’ designation is not created, you’ve certainly found a way. Five of these would be equivalent to a hundred post/responses daily. You would definitely secure a place in the New Englands Forums post count hall of fame. Stay well, as always ….