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Birds everywhere. Can hear em chirping outside as they fly by. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-comp_radar-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Canadian starts out that way, but then gets trapped under the ridge and a much weaker version of future Imelda gets pulled into New England. Verbatim stuff aside, if this becomes a situation where it will be a close scrape of the SE coast, we’ll need to pay close attention to the orientation of this ridge and whether it closes off an escape route as Imelda tries moving eastward. I was always skeptical of Imelda getting well inland and I brought the ridging closing the escape route up as a possibility yesterday. While I’d be skeptical of some sort of threat further north, it really seems like anything is on the table. Anomalous ridging does anomalous things. Sometimes.

Beer

0Z CMC stays OTS unlike 12Z, which looped back to NC So far, all OTS with only Euro left

Love the red hill hike. We are 5 min from there.

Best rates of the season. Just dumping. https://ibb.co/y3g7BFV

Looks like another fish storm

Everyone here wants a hurricane to hit. We are all weenies.

0Z: Icon stays OTS as has been case every run GFS stays OTS 2nd run in a row JMA goes out only 72 but implies it would again get pulled into Humberto and stay OTS UKMET stays OTS as (like the Icon) has been the case every run: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 23.5N 77.1W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 28.09.2025 36 23.5N 77.3W 1004 38 0000UTC 29.09.2025 48 25.0N 77.5W 1002 38 1200UTC 29.09.2025 60 26.5N 78.0W 1001 38 0000UTC 30.09.2025 72 28.1N 78.3W 998 43 1200UTC 30.09.2025 84 28.3N 78.5W 995 42 0000UTC 01.10.2025 96 27.6N 76.9W 993 38 1200UTC 01.10.2025 108 27.4N 74.6W 991 45 0000UTC 02.10.2025 120 27.8N 71.6W 989 45 1200UTC 02.10.2025 132 28.3N 68.0W 987 48 0000UTC 03.10.2025 144 28.8N 63.5W 989 66 1200UTC 03.10.2025 156 29.8N 59.3W 994 54 0000UTC 04.10.2025 168 30.3N 56.7W 997 41 ——————— CMC next

Looking like the stall offshore is real

0Z GFS also likely not going to hit the US based on 78 but we’ll see.

WB 0Z RDPS is closer to the SC coast. Very heavy rains and hurricane force winds close to the coast at the end of the run.

0Z Icon is again OTS.

Damn it, don't you watch the X-Files?

want to believe what?

Yeah the writing was on the wall pretty quickly this morning, unabated RI was almost a guarantee.@WxWatcher007was correctly calling for this to be the season of the SW Atlantic… once Erin’s cold pool rebounded, that zone has become rocket fuel once again

A stall off the coast is fine with us in Helene ravaged WNC.

Humberto is a little west of track and is now forecast to become our second category five hurricane of the season.

WB 18Z 3K at hr 60 has a hurricane just off the coast of Florida....

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 26 2025 Humberto has continued to intensify rapidly this evening. The eye temperature has increased to 15C and the eyewall white ring (-73C) is nearly closed. A 2137 UTC WSFM-1 HiRes microwave pass indicated that a concentric ring was developing about 65 nm from the eye. The initial intensity is raised to 125 kt and is close to the UW-CIMSS ADT of T6.4 and above the constrained subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. All intensity contributions, low shear, warm waters, and ample mid-level moisture, appear conducive for Humberto to intensify rapidly during the next 12-24 hours. DTOPS guidance indicates a high probability of RI during the next 12-24 hours, and the latest official intensity forecast follows suit, bringing Humberto to a peak intensity of 140 kt Saturday night. By the 36 hour period, however, inner-core fluctuations as a result of eyewall replacement cycles (ERC) are possible, and it's difficult to forecast the exact timing. It's worth mentioning, however, that the UW-CIMSS M-PERC (Microwave-based Probability of Eyewall Replacement Cycle) statistical model is predicting a 61 percent of onset. By mid-next week, increasing vertical shear spreading over Humberto should induce a gradual weakening trend. At the same time, while it passes west of Bermuda, a significant expansion in the surface wind field will likely occur. The NHC intensity forecast is just above the previous forecast through the 36 hour period, and closely follows a blend of the HCCA consensus and the HAFS/HWRF/HMON hurricane models. Humberto has taken a trochoidal jog to the left of the track this evening, likely due to the rapid intensification event. The initial motion is estimated to be slightly south of due west, or 265/6 kt. Humberto is expected to move slowly toward the west or west-northwest during the next day or so in the easterly steering flow provided by mid-tropospheric high pressure located to the north of the cyclone and just east of Bermuda. Around the 48 hour period, or Sunday evening, a northwestward turn with some reduction in forward speed is forecast while the above-mentioned high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. By day 4, Humberto should commence a rather abrupt turn northward and northeastward in response to a major shortwave upper-level trough amplifying and moving out of northeastern Canada and into the northwestern Atlantic. The official track forecast is located just to the left of the previous advisory, primarily due to the initial motion left of track, and lies between the HCCA corrected consensus and the Google DeepMind ensemble model. NOAA buoy 41044, located about 38 n mi southwest of the center, has reported falling pressure,sustained tropical-storm-force winds, gusts just below hurricane-force and 17 ft seas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 22.1N 58.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 22.2N 59.8W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 22.7N 61.6W 140 KT 160 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 23.6N 63.5W 135 KT 155 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 24.8N 65.3W 130 KT 150 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 26.2N 67.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 27.9N 68.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 32.1N 68.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 36.0N 62.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts

WOW Humberto now forecast to become a cat 5

Good to see the Euro AI take up the annual challenge of throwing tropical up the bay

Tucked.

It's been such a dead season, I want to believe.