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Almost 2" qpf on ai GFS. An I wouldn't call one run a trend either

as long as we have euro ai on our side we'll have a storm. Regular euro is equivalent to canadian maybe, not great! It used to be the best but there was a upgrade several years ago and ever since it's done pretty bad but this year it has been horrendous!

GFS looking pretty bad so far

Look at the vort over the last 5 runs

Euro ai and euro have to hope they stops or trends better tonight

AI GFS is not that different from 18Z its a tick SE but just a hair. Still a very big hit for most but who knows when its done correcting SE, the thing was over HFD yesterday.

lol so icon loses the storm and it's gone. bro icon is the worst global model!

Sure looked like the wave got squashed more before trying to amplify

It Actually recovered and still closed off along or just se the bm.

All the models tonight have unfortunately trended towards the Euro at h5. Except for maybe the aigfs

Trust me, some will. It will com back again to some extent.

Total QPF GFS AI AIGFS:

I don’t disagree, we had a pretty special SWFE. However, in context of this event, I think the odds are fading fast with each model run.

Icon looks nothing like euro. What are you all talking about

Just about a decade of buttah-face seasons....due for a lookah.

00z GFS AI AIGFS

At least the tease came at like day 5-6 and not 2-3. Won’t have to waste the rest of the week tracking ghosts

Nearly completely absent of coastals, but on track for a climo season for the first time in half a decade. It doesn’t need to be pretty. Production is all that matters.

0z AIGFS juiced up from 18z more QPF all around and primary doesn't go as far north.. temps are iffy though.

00z GFS AI AIGFS:

Gfs bot kicked se again. That’s like 10 straight moves se now.

2/18 00z GFS AI AIGFS

Well tomorrow will be 5 days out, so still plenty of time to see how this goes...