All Activity

September has weak ENSO correlations, historically. It really picks up in October.

Looking through each year individually some years rhyme but you can't expect a 1:1 situation. 1991, 2015, 2023 stuck out the most as being similar to the northern hemisphere pattern we are currently seeing in the 3 month interval.

Invest 92L: 0Z UKMET: only makes it to TD status for the first time in many runs:NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 10.6N 40.2WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------0000UTC 13.08.2026 24 10.6N 40.2W 1011 231200UTC 13.08.2026 36 11.4N 42.5W 1012 270000UTC 14.08.2026 48 11.5N 46.5W 1012 301200UTC 14.08.2026 60 12.5N 49.9W 1013 280000UTC 15.08.2026 72 13.6N 54.3W 1012 301200UTC 15.08.2026 84 14.2N 58.8W 1012 290000UTC 16.08.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in association with a tropical wave located around 700 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression will likely form within a couple of days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

The only noticeable thing is the increase in moisture across my region specifically, still not enough to break the drought fully but working on it. The Caribbean has exceptional shear right now which is pretty typical of Nino (they are also below 30N so more in tune with what I had stated in my last post. There is quite an abundance of shear in that region that even areas of the East Pacific are being affected by this from about southern Mexico to Panama. Here are the 500mb patterns for MJJ leading into the strong to super Nino category based on RONI (since this is what we are using now). https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/ I was reluctant to use 2023-24 since in RONI terms was only a moderate Nino (borderline strong) and comparing it to this year so far. There are some similarities this year to those past years in the southern hemisphere but overall the northern hemisphere seems to be opposite.

Mosquitoes survive extreme northern winters because their eggs or adult females enter a state of dormant animation called diapause, allowing them to freeze solid without dying. Built-in Antifreeze: Mosquitoes produce glycerol and chemical compounds that lower the freezing point of their bodily fluids, preventing lethal ice crystals from destroying their cells. Insulating Snow Blanket: Mosquitoes overwinter beneath thick layers of snow, leaf litter, or in animal burrows. The snow acts as insulation, keeping ground temperatures much warmer than the -40°F air temperature. The Egg Strategy: Most northern mosquitoes belong to the Aedes genus. They lay eggs in dry soil before winter. These eggs are incredibly resilient, remaining completely dormant until spring. When the massive winter snowpack finally melts, the water cannot drain into the ground because the soil underneath is permanently frozen (permafrost). This creates millions of shallow, stagnant pools of water perfect for mosquito breeding. Combined with 24 hours of summer sunlight that warms the water rapidly, billions of eggs hatch all at once, creating the infamous "Arctic mosquito swarms." So guys, if you going up North, bring those frying pans! You're gonna need them!

Thanks! It looks like Dec 1957 was +7.4 QBO and Strong Nino That's the only ONI>1.0, QBO>+6 analog pre-1979. Dec 1970 Mod Nina, -17 QBO. Sometimes strong -PNA patterns have prevailed in Dec in Nina/-QBO. I could see how this would have been cold if not for the massive Aleutian block - notice the +150dm -NAO. (QBO is Strat - so more AO connection).

So it IS true we are seeing some influence from the Nino in the CONUS? This link is interesting. https://atlas.niu.edu/gwo/

A ton of rain tonight and much more coming. A very nice surprise this evening and tonight to pick up several inches of rainfall.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data goes back to 1948 monthly at just 30mb but was done being updated with a lot of other things back at the end of February 2026. Also have this pdf from awhile back again unfortunately have not seen this updated in a long time https://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/qbo/qbo_wind_pdf.pdf Updated site for ^^^ https://www.atmohub.kit.edu/english/807.php

Pffttt! Lame X post. He does not specify how *strong* El Nino was those years. That makes a big difference. And there have been 10 El Nino events since 1994, so where are the other 7 for comparison? 2002-03 was strong El Nino. How did that winter do? /S 2009-10 was strong El Nino, what happened that winter? /S We should be looking at very strong El Ninos only. We've have 4 since the 1950s, 1982-83, 1991-92, 1997-98, 2015-16. It is a mixed bag, leaning toward below avg snowfall, but there was the Feb 1983 blockbuster and also Jan 2016. So it does not mean it is a complete loss. Also, sample size, 4 very strong El Ninos in 70 years does not tell us the full gamut of what can happen, so don't let the @CoastalWxDebbie Downer attitude rule here! There are no less than a dozen other global and regional oscillations going on and how they interact w/ El Nino can and does lead to the unexpected. Case in point, normally in very strong El Nino, Cali is soaked and the Pac NW is dry. Well, that did not occur in 2015-16, it was the exact opposite! Also, the wx/atmosphere does not work linearly. In other words, just b/c this may be the strongest El Nino in modern times, does not mean you simply extrapolate in one direction based off other very strong events, esp. when it comes to regional sensible wx and the specifics.

You can actually make your own custom index, factoring in global warming, which is about +0.2-3 for Nino 3.4. In other words, 0.0 neutral is now with global warming +0.2-3. The point of RONI is to even it out, so you can track mid latitude influences more, but there are a lot of extra guidelines with it I think that make it vary month-to-month. Just factoring in global warming skew is helpful for seeing what pure ENSO event is like. On the seasonal model forecasts, it usually shows the timeframe somewhere on the top of the map. It's usually 1 month, or 3-months. The CPC officially uses RONI: Climate Prediction Center - CPC adopts Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) for reliable, responsive monitoring and tracking of ENSO

^QBO data only goes back to 1979, but add that and Dec is even warmer! I'm really curious to see what this Dec will look like.

Likely a rain-wrapped tor. If it was a MB that strong to flip cars, the other ones nearby would have at least been pushed sideways. Nothing I find more frightening in wx is not having good VIS when a tor may be present. I've been in that situation before in OK (the day of the El Reno monster in May 2013), and it was a harrowing experience to say the least.

Picked up 1.5 inches as of midnight. It's still pouring down here. All lightning and thunder seem to have moved out over the last 30 minutes.

Going to be some big rainfall rates in the morning. Looks like a ton of moisture setting up to.come across WNC.

The wind shear "barrier" along 20N is quite impressive. So 92L and what is behind it don't stand a chance once they gain more latitude. 93L well to the N in the basin is likely a TD/weak TS now. Sheared, but LLCC has become more defined and convection is persisting E of the center, plus its fast forward motion is likely augmenting the winds on the S quad. NHC gives it 40/40 but it could be declared at any time. It's small and will not last long if it becomes a TC.

Here’s the mean of the 9 Decembers preceding these very cold Nino Febs: like night and day! Look familiar?

LOLLLLL. https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/2087382965235982682?s=46

It is usually either a 3 month or a 1 month avg.