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Sigh. I’ve seen this movie before…

1.31" so far since midnight Current temp : 62°

There are some nasty members on the AI guidance, including GDM, which despite some challenges in the Atlantic this season has still performed better than any model. We'd take.

Time to put on the sprinklers

1.31" since midnight imby

Yeah definite model bust today . Hopefully the storm hits next Sunday .The eye moves directly across CT east to west on Euro Aifs

I had people asking me about the weather for games today and I leaned stein but not nearly enough. It’s quite remarkable.

Wrong once again

The lower bound of my forecast was .50” and even that seems generous now. Only .11” here on the day.

With the patriots sucking and a likely loss in the WC playoffs for the Sox, I need this storm for sanity.

.26 here so far

I'll sell that 10" the Euro is showing here over the next 15 days.

I had to do a double take to make sure I had the right storm. Clearly making a run now. Another deep burst may be enough to get over the top.

Nothing did

Not even wet ground. A few drops. Unreal.

I’ve already compared the current Nino to the prior one for both GLAAM and for OHC (like night and day). 1. Here’s a similar comparison of PDO: Current: -0.71 Sept of 2023: ~-2.4 on Sept 19th though these are admittedly volatile as one can see it rose steeply Oct 1-20th: 2. SOI: 90 day mean is now way down at ~-22. The mean was down to only -8 for the same 90 day period in 2023. It was -18 in 2015 and -14 in 1997. A rough estimate using monthlies (due to no dailies that far back) for 1982 is -19 to -20. The only other 90 day mean as of Sept 20th back to 1876 that realistically could be about as low as 2026’s -22 based on monthlies is 1896 (incoming strong Nino) though that chance is <50% as it is more likely in the -20 to -21 range. So in summary: 2026: -22 2023: -8 2015: -18 1997: -14 1982: -19 to -20 1896: -20 to -21 The other super-Ninos’ rough estimates: none even close to 2026, 1896, 1982, 2015: 1972: -13 1965: -14 1957: -5 1888: -11 1877: -10

Up to 1.21” on the day with a drizzle/mist now.

.22 today . Saw lots of forecasts with widespread 1” . Not the setup for that

Look at Fay…

As far as overall synoptic pattern recognition, machines are taking over. They just don’t have the skill to resolve hi res or mesoscale features.

its 80 degrees down in South Jersey with a 73 dewpoint in Money Island along the Delaware Bay

Well, last season they were right