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GWDLT. 59 and mostly sunny. Beautiful spring day.

Another stellar day so far, while we wait for potential thunderstorms later.

definately wine. i can only go by snow pack in my yard. last year the last trace was gone on 3/17. this year i still have some piles hanging on. also, last March averaged 2 degrees warmer than this March so far.

I’m drier than SNH. Makes total sense.

Warm season already underway there.

Latest NAO and AO predictions are showing it staying positive now. Expect the models to warm up.

Latest NAO and AO predictions are showing it staying positive now. Expect the models to warm up.

64 here

Absolute boning up here again. Have had maybe a few minutes of sun.

Pretty strong opposite correlation (-WPO) Sept-Nov 2025 Before +WPO Winter (opposite for -WPO) Clear pattern

Do you have an image from this past fall to illustrate how it lead the big -WPO winter?

Thats a pretty sensible demarcation, actually. Would give critical mass/ synergies to a couple "quiet" subforms, too.

Western Pacific and Indian Ocean seems to definitely lead Winter WPO, SSTA-wise.

WPO is the index I have struggled with the most......I went big -WPO winter 2024-2025 and it was EPO instead....this past season I went big -EPO and it was -WPO. N Pac is a PIA.

As we progress more into the Fall the Indian Ocean SSTAs are a good indicator of the WPO setting up for the Winter. Check out the early season lead though... Pretty strong May-July You can make an index with the N Pacific cold pool at -0.4 vs Indian Ocean and ENSO +0.5 and have a 80% probability indicator for Winter WPO.

If it were up to me, I would merge the Upstate NY/Pennsylvania/Philadelphia, and NYC into one region, and do it like this: New England - CT/MA/VT/NH/RI/ME NY/PA/NJ Mid-Atlantic - DE/MD/DC/VA/WV

I remember you telling me about the Indian ocean Aug-Nov being a good indicator of winter WPO...it looked strongly positive all summer and into the fall, before flipping drastically at the last moment. Looked kind of neutralish, but the WPO ended up strongly negative.

Mid latitudes are kind of on fire the last few years.. I would just like to see a trough 45N in the Pacific

This is my point...+PDO doesn't guarantee a cold winter...it merely increases the probability of the warmer west/colder east pattern. If we end up with like a 2.6 event, then it won't matter.

Seems in April there was one in Connecticut, my lawn was brown and dormant, we'd go 45 minutes south into Connecticut for golf, and the grass was nice and green a goods two weeks before mine.

Yeah, North Atlantic SSTAs and tripole or not is also a good indicator.. a few things that are determined in the summer.

I have no issue with that.....it's why I always like to compare my work with your NAO formula before publishing.

You will tend to get more of an Aleutian low, which drops a trough into the eastern US. I guess the west would still be quite warm in that scenario.

Yes...and maybe that happens and it's still warm, or warm everywhere....too early to entertain that or dispute it.

Believe it or not Summer sea-level pressure 60-90N is a great lead for what kind of upper latitude pattern will happen in the Winter.. since 2012 it's flipped every single time. We want negative SLP June-August