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Thank you for shifting attention to the mid-Atlantic coming powerful high impact event--interrupting lives. I am in agreement and it's been on the modeling from the EC EFS for several days (earlier posts own phase etc). One note I think everyone with interest in GFS suite modeling vs EC suite should monitor for eventual outcomes. While nothing is yet slam-dunk, I do believe it is now apparent the GFS suite has been wayward east (as the CMC GEPS) for several days. For now, unless NHC can get us a something to look at via RAL, we're on our own. IMO. I think by 4PM today the weather sensitive groups along the mid-Atlantic-SNE should be looking for mitigating risks including alternate plans.

Notice how tight pres gradient is near the center and it wanes outside of that? That's tropical structure.

I think so. Consensus seems like a loop south of BID, maybe west to south of ern LI and then lifting NE from there. Seems like biggest question is angle or approach before loop. That will dictate best winds and potential coastal flooding.

980mb at hr72 that would be fun

Hopefully the RRFS can score a win for the first time ever

Yes, inconsistent operational TC forecasting here. The fact a system is close to land or not should be irrelevant. The atmosphere does not abide by our rules and policies, it does what it does, and we need to do things according to it! And as noted, people in the field notice these things, and are valid concerns/complaints. And w/ social media these days, that can result in a PR disaster. You can't brush such things under the rug anymore hoping ppl will not notice. And in this case, it is not a low probability event. Some models are showing it clearly, and when you combine that w/ practical empirical fcst skill/experience?

I am more of a winter lurker. I came on because my husband said we are getting a little rain and some gusts of wind. It’s no big deal here only the cape. I just saw a post from a local TV Met that intrigued me enough to come back to check here for the bigger picture. Super storm sandy, remnants of ida, Irene, flash flooding here in Seymour and Oxford over a trivial rain event are engrained in my memory and how many were caught off guard. While sandy people prepped more for wind rather than flooding. One thing I’ve learned is people don’t believe the forecasts unless it’s labeled something. Here in New England flash flooding is often warned about rarely happens in a devastating ways. They’re warned but people just sort of give it a meh we always get those nothings going to happen. Meh those weather guys are always wrong. What they don’t do is listen and understand the chance is there. I have to say I’ve seen more downplaying of this more than hype on social media. .

You can see the skew-Ts for yourself, this things is getting funneled in cold air from aloft, as its surface low is feeding off a near-record or (record?) warm Atlantic.

Congrats central and Northern New England

upton continues to downplay the threat for the nyc area..

After looking at all the 0z models it seems we got a good storm on the way! About damn time this boring weather ends!!

On the tropical forum, it was pointed out the high 1000-500 thk. The initial low pressure center currently is S of the 576 thk line, and it wraps up and pools this value into a discrete closed contour! That's what Sandy had offshore E of ORF the day of landfall. 576+ is more than enough for a solid warm core that is not shallow (500 and below).

No change from Upton , already passed there usual time when they change/ issue things

I forgot to check the 1000-500 thickness. Good catch! 576+ is more than enough for a solid warm color that is not shallow (500 and below). The initial low pressure center currently is S of the 576 thk line, and it wrap up and pools this value into a discrete closed contour! That's what Sandy had offshore E of ORF the day of landfall.

Big time beach erosion and flood risk with a track like that.

I have long been a critic of the NHC on topics like this. Way behind the ball. I think they need to reconsider their mission statement. NHC tracking fish storms in the middle of the Atlantic….some 2000+miles away from any civilization. Meanwhile 10+ million Americans exposed to a modeled tropical type storm inside 48 hours and they haven’t even flagged it.

The 00z ECMWF track now gives the E Coast storm a sig better chances for going ST or even T w/ it farther S initially. The warm core is very apparent. 20 C at 925, 12 C at 700, and -5 C at 500 when it it close to 39.7N / 71.8W. Those are Sandy profile numbers from recon when it warm secluded and formed a small inner core the day of landfall (looked a lot like the Perfect Storm 1991 hurricane) after looking less tropical from when it was in the Bahamas to this point. And as a result, TS development probs has increased significantly to as high as 80% (60% on previous run). And yet nothing from NHC on its TWO.

If the 0z EURO is right , that’s exactly what will happen.

The 00z ECMWF track now gives it a sig better chances for going ST or even T w/ it farther S initially. The warm core is very apparent. 20 C at 925, 12 C at 700, and -5 C at 500 when it it close to 39.7N / 71.8W. Those are Sandy profile numbers from recon when it warm secluded and formed a small inner core the day of landfall (looked a lot like the Perfect Storm 1991 hurricane) after looking less tropical from when it was in the Bahamas to this point. And as a result, TS development probs has increased significantly to as high as 80% (60% on previous run). And yet nothing from NHC on its TWO.

Yep stronger run. Gfs also caved.

This is “The Perfect Storm”…..all major models show the eye developing at the 250mb level. Also, considering the tilted nature of its development, it will be a busy day later today. You have a strong tropical Burp crashing into a strong high that splits. With the full moon, this has distaster written all over it for CT, RI and southeastern MA. I’m hungry and I hope I get to eat my words.