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Severe WX Outlook Through Friday Morning: NE/mid-Atl.

Low pressure develops across Pennsylvania later today and I am expecting at least some isolated severe thunderstorms across the region. Isolated thunderstorm threat... Satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies with just some high clouds across eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Daytime heating is expected to push surface temperatures well into the 80's along with dew-points that are already in the upper 60's to lower 70's. In the warm sector well ahead of a cold front (east of the Appalachi

Quincy

Quincy

 

Recap: Tornadoes in New York, May 29th, 2013

Two tornadoes (an EF-2 and an EF-1) touched down in eastern New York on Wednesday, both around 7:00 p.m., according to the National Weather Service (NWS). The stronger tornado, an EF-2, had winds of up to 125 MPH and caused damage along a relatively wide and long path. The tornado width was estimated at 1 mile wide with a track length of 17 miles from Florida to Rotterdam. The second tornado formed just to the southwest of the EF-2 tornado, around the same time. It was a weaker and shorter-liv

Quincy

Quincy

 

Severe WX Outlook, Northeast: Wednesday, May 29th

As a warm front lifts into the Northeastern United States on Wednesday, a warmer, more humid air-mass floods into the Northeast. Some thunderstorm development is forecast and some of those storms may be capable of reaching severe limits, particularly across portions of New York and west-central New England. Low threat (Conditions are somewhat favorable for severe thunderstorms) Interior New England, New York, northwestern New Jersey and norther Pennsylvania: As a warm front clears, an increas

Quincy

Quincy

 

Severe WX Outlook, Mid-Atl.: Wednesday, May 15th

As a warm front lifts into the Northeastern United States on Wednesday, some thunderstorm development is forecast and some of those storms may be capable of reaching severe limits. Low threat (Conditions are somewhat favorable for severe thunderstorms) Central Pennsylvania and portions of Maryland: A warm front is expected to lift into the Northeast on Wednesday. The focus is across the warm sector where some strong wind shear combines with surface/low-level instability to enhance the severe

Quincy

Quincy

 

Recap: Tornado in Massachusetts, May 9th, 2013

The National Weather Service (NWS) reported that an EF-0 tornado touched down in eastern Massachusetts Thursday afternoon, shortly after 4:30 p.m. An upper level low lifted northward through New England on Thursday. An unseasonably cold air mass was in place, resulting in cold temperatures aloft. It was the combination of low Lifted Condensation Levels (LCL's) and moderate wind shear aloft that helped create an environment that was marginally supportive of tornado development. It is possible th

Quincy

Quincy

 

Severe WX Outlook, NE, Mid-Atl.: Saturday, May 11th

As a cold front moves towards the East Coast on Saturday, some thunderstorm development is possible during the afternoon and early evening hours. Low threat (Conditions are somewhat favorable for severe thunderstorms) Mid-Atlantic region (east of Appalachians), lower Hudson Valley and SW New England. Conditions will destabilize in a warm, somewhat moist air-mass before an approaching cold front swings from west to east through the area. The biggest question mark is how much daytime heating wi

Quincy

Quincy

 

April Forecast Verification for Inland Connecticut

I've been creating daily 6-day forecasts for the better part of this year, with a focus on inland Connecticut. Before making any forecast, I take a close look at the computer model forecasts through Day 6, including a few forecast techniques to see how verification pans out. In April, I had 29 days worth of data, out of a possible 30, to measure forecast accuracy. As expected, forecast error generally increases with time. It is interesting to note a spike at Day 5 and a decrease at Day 6. That

Quincy

Quincy

 

Severe WX Outlook, NE, Mid-Atl.: Wednesday, April 24th

A cold front is forecast to move from west to east across the East Coast on Wednesday. The result could mean scattered thunderstorms along the front, along with a few severe thunderstorms. (Marginal threat) Middle Appalachians into DE, PA, inland NJ and interior NY. A similar setup to this past Friday is expected on Wednesday, with a cold front moving across the area during the afternoon and evening hours. The only difference here is that the cold front is not as strong as that scenario (last

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Quincy

 

Recap: Tornado in New York, April 19th, 2013

The National Weather Service (NWS) confirmed that an EF-1 tornado touched down in New York state Friday evening, shortly before 8 p.m. A strong cold front moved across Pennsylvania and New York state late Friday evening. At the same time, a marginally unstable air-mass was in place closer to the surface. With moderate to strong wind shear in place and significant storm relative helicity in place, the stage was set for damaging winds and even a marginal tornado threat. As a result, a Tornado Wa

Quincy

Quincy

 

Updated: Severe WX Outlook, NE, Mid-Atl.: Friday, April 19th

A strong cold front approaches the Appalachians Friday afternoon and evening. Along that cold front, a squall line with thunderstorms is currently expected is develop. (Marginal threat) Middle Appalachians into Pennsylvania, northwestern New Jersey and interior New York: Daytime heating is expected to push temperatures into the low to mid-70's in the valley locations with mid to upper 60's in the higher elevations. Low and mid-level clouds will likely limit just how unstable the atmosphere c

Quincy

Quincy

 

Severe WX Outlook, NE, Mid-Atl.: Friday, April 19th

A strong low pressure system is forecast to move up into the Great Lakes by Thursday and eventually into southeastern Canada late Friday into Saturday. A potent cold front associated with this storm will move towards the Appalachians by the second half of Friday. (For Wednesday and Thursday, severe thunderstorm activity is probable for the Mississippi Valley and portions of the western Ohio River Valley. I see a marginal setup for severe storms from Central N.Y. into the middle Appalachians. Ev

Quincy

Quincy

 

Connecticut Snowfall Totals: Mar. 7-8, 2013

Here are some maps that I compiled from various sources. Most of the reports came in through the National Weather Service, with a few from this forum and social media reports that passed through quality control. Snowfall amounts were greatest across the higher terrain of Tolland County. This was due to a persistent band of moderate to heavy snow, as well as the altitude as temperatures were marginal through a portion of the event. Totals in the Connecticut River valley and the immediate shorel

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Quincy

 

Final Snow Forecast: 2 Maps, Mar. 6-8

I don't really expect much snowfall at all tonight. For some continuity and a slight amount of uncertainty, I painted the entire area with 2" or less of snow. Eastern Conn. and northern R.I. have perhaps a 50/50 shot at 1-2": of snow, while the rest of the area has a high probability of receiving less than 1". Temperatures and moisture look very marginal and although some precipitation should back southern sections of southern New England, I don't see it being a big deal. There may be a few slu

Quincy

Quincy

 

Snowfall Forecast: March 6-8, 2013

Just a very brief discussion: Low pressure slowly moves east of the mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday night into Thursday. A relatively broad storm with possible multiple low centers spin around and pinwheel periods of snow (some rain mixing in at the coastal plain) through the region from Wednesday into Friday. This looks to be an elevation-dependent event, but heavy amounts or precipitation across eastern Mass., eastern Conn. and much of R.I. will help offset some of the "snow losses." In those a

Quincy

Quincy

 

Snowfall Forecast: February 26-27, 2013

Outside of the hilly terrain across the interior, this snow event does not look like a big deal. I expect 3-6"+ across the east slopes of the Berkshires and much of Worcester County. Connecticut only sees a brief period of rain, with generally 1-3" across the northern hills. The boundary layer temperatures are simply too marginal for much to change, especially with dew-points in the upper 20's as of early Tuesday evening. Downstream observations don't indicate that cold air damming across New E

Quincy

Quincy

 

Regional Snowfall Forecast: Feb. 23-24

What a challenging forecast and I still think the models have more to resolve, mainly on Sunday with respect to enhancement of snow along a trough. Essentially, a light mixture of rain and snow overspreads the region through later today. Across the lower Hudson Valley, Connecticut, Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts, I expect virtually no daytime snow accumulation. Low pressure develops south of the area tonight, but the heaviest precipitation and best lift also stays south. Some snow

Quincy

Quincy

 

Updated Snow Forecast: Feb. 8-9, 2013

I expect mostly snow for just about all of southern New England (pictured on this map). Although there may be a brief mixture along the I-95 corridor in Conn./RI, I expect crashing temperatures and heights to bring a wind-driven snow right down to the coast and into eastern Long Island. As far as snowfall totals go, I think that higher ratios will help push NW Conn. and W Mass. to 20"+. Further east, heavy precipitation will offset somewhat lower ratios for 20"+ from IJD to BOS. There is still

Quincy

Quincy

 

Snowfall Forecast: February 8-9, 2013

I just want to quickly share my latest thoughts for Connecticut and surrounding areas. There's little doubt that a strong storm with plenty of precipitation will impact the tri-state area and southern New England Friday into early Saturday, but there are still a few details to discuss. Concern #1: Mixing along the shoreline. An initially "warm" boundary layer may cause mixed precipitation to fall near the Connecticut shoreline and coastal Rhode Island for several hours. With that said, as lo

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Quincy

 

Connecticut Snowfall Totals: Jan. 28, 2013

Generally light snow overspread Connecticut from west to east during the morning on January 28th. Snow continued into the early afternoon and at the same time, warmer air moved in aloft. A change to sleet and freezing rain occurred from southwest to northeast, with portions of the I-95 corridor changing over to plain rain. Precipitation tapered off to intermittent drizzle with freezing drizzle across much of the interior by early evening. Snowfall totals were fairly uniform with most areas pic

Quincy

Quincy

 

Snow/Ice Forecast for CT & Vicinity

I expect light snow to reach the NY/CT and NY/MA border around 9 a.m. or so and then overspread the area from west to east. The heaviest precipitation amounts impact northern Connecticut into central and western Massachusetts. Quick warming at 850mb should push most areas over to sleet and freezing rain. The cold layer aloft up to about 925mb looks deep enough where the inland hills may get a thump of sleet, while the interior coastal plain could see several hours of freezing rain. By late aft

Quincy

Quincy

 

Snowfall Forecast: January 25-26, 2013

This isn't really a big event, but due to the amount of discussion it's had, I felt a map was warranted. Low pressure moving through the Great Lakes brings an usual push of generally light snow towards the Appalachians. A new area of low pressure is forecast to form east of the mid-Atlantic region, enhancing snowfall amounts ever so slightly around the coastal plain. This map does not show it, but light snow should extend southward into Virginia. I believe that most areas will see an inch or l

Quincy

Quincy

 

Final Conn. Snowfall Map: Jan. 15-16, 2012

Thanks to some feedback, I cleaned up this map and added a few additional reports. There are still some gaps in Litchfield County, a report of 4.0 inches in Torrington made more sense based off of observations and radar imagery for that area. You can see how the higher amounts were generally confined to the higher terrain, with lower amounts in the Conn. River and Shetucket River valleys. Below is a color, contoured map I put together:

Quincy

Quincy

 

Preliminary Conn. Snowfall Totals

The image is comprised of snowfall totals from various sources, some of which include the New England forum on here. Snowfall totals across Connecticut were pretty uniform around 3-4", although slightly lower amounts occurred along I-95 and there were a few isolated amounts around 5". I'll post a contoured color map within the next 12 to 18 hours.

Quincy

Quincy

 

Snow Forecast: CT and Surrounding Areas

I see this event as a widespread 2-4 incher across most of interior SNE. The tough call comes along I-95 for BOS-PVD-GON, as often is the case. I do think most areas even along the South Shore get a thump of snow/sleet at the beginning. I'm not really all that confident on widespread 4"+ amounts, but I've outlined an area with a black dotted line that could see locally 5-6 inches. I also expect precipitation to quickly shut off in the morning (by 7 or 8 a.m. across much of Connecticut) and ta

Quincy

Quincy

 

A Look Back at Dec. 29 for Connecticut

Map above is based on reports from various sources, including this board, the National Weather Service and data viewers from across the state sent in. Event Summary: Scattered snow showers reached portions of western Connecticut by late morning on the 29th. This snow was associated with weakening low pressure over Pennsylvania. The main storm began to develop east of Virginia during the afternoon. Steady precipitation overspread the state from southwest to northeast between about 1 and 3 p.m

Quincy

Quincy