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LocoAko

Meteorologist
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About LocoAko

  • Birthday 06/25/1990

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  • Website URL
    http://www.twitter.com/imjacobnotjames

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KOKC
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Oklahoma City, OK
  • Interests
    Photography, piano, mallet percussion, amateur storm chasing, hiking

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  1. Fantastic. Thanks for all your hard work Brett!
  2. Not sure if this is the right thread for this, but yikes. http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/dec/04/california-natural-gas-leak-methane-climate-change-old-infrastructure?CMP=share_btn_tw
  3. Not Arctic, but thought I'd share. http://news.agu.org/press-release/satellite-data-shows-u-s-methane-hot-spot-bigger-than-expected/
  4. Just figured I'd get a main thread going for the potential impacts of the remnants of Tropical Storm Odile on the Southern Plains to organize the discussion. So far, the Euro has backed off of its prolific rainfall totals (up to 17" SW of OKC) that it showed yesterday, but forecasts keep bouncing around a bit as is to be expected, with the GFS now shifting the swath of heaviest rain into northern OK from southern KS and the 84-hr NAM doing the same. WPC Discussion Threw this together from the GFS forecast PWAT and the climatological PWAT graph from OUN to demonstrate their point: Forecast Offices Graphics Norman Amarillo Drought Monitor And just for fun, a discussion from the Oklahoma State Climatologist of the heaviest rainfall events in Oklahoma history (all due to tropical remnants): http://ticker.mesonet.org/select.php?mo=09&da=16&yr=2014
  5. 1: You can always use MUCAPE. Typically, without an inversion, the most-unstable CAPE will be equal to the surface-based CAPE, since surface parcels will have the highest instability. MUCAPE is typically used for overnight/elevated convection just because it is in those instances where the SBCAPE can be most misleading, so to speak. 2: I'm not really sure how to answer this question, but I think the answer is no. Usually when referencing the cap "breaking", people are referring to surface parcels breaching the CIN and ascending past through LFC. Elevated instability, seen via the MUCAPE, can exist above the cap and generate convection regardless of any cap. 3 & 4: MUCAPE and MLCAPE are different ideas addressing different issues. MUCAPE is used when there may be inversions limiting the extent of surface-based instability, but where instability may exist above this inversion. It only seeks to locate the maximum CAPE possible lifting any parcel. MLCAPE, on the other hand, is the CAPE found when the lifted parcel has the conditions of the average lowest 100 mb of the atmosphere. This is done to obtain more realistic CAPE values, as due to low-level mixing a parcel will typical not have the conditions of the lowest (ground) level but will be representative of the lowest ~100mb or so of the atmosphere. Often, temperatures will be superadiabatic right at ground level (and therefore deceptively high compared to the T a parcel would have), and moisture pooling will often exist in the lowest data point, whereas a parcel would be much more thoroughly mixed. Therefore, MUCAPE isn't inherently more unstable than MLCAPE.... it depends on the atmospheric situation at play. As per #3, MLCAPE can be the most unstable if the atmospheric conditions allow for it, but it isn't always the case. Check out this sounding showing elevated instability: As you can see, the parcel ascending from 940mb has quite a bit of positive buoyancy and CAPE (and would be considered MUCAPE, as it is not surface-based and is the parcel with the most CAPE out of any in the sounding). In contrast, the MLCAPE, taken by using the average parcel conditions in the lowest ~100mb, would be T=~15C and Td=~4C, and would not result in very much MLCAPE, and certainly less so than the MUCAPE. Keep in mind that MUCAPE will lift parcels from anywhere in the sounding to find the one that is the most unstable, while MLCAPE is essentially surface-based CAPE, except that the "surface-based" parcel has the average conditions in the lowest ~100mb as opposed to the true "surface" values.
  6. The debate over whether global warming is occurring - yes. I haven't seen any scientists claim we know everything about everything. Come on now.
  7. The bolded is definitely the case (I see it with my friends all the time). I guess I mostly don't care what a lot of alarmists or deniers say, so when I hear statements like this, I think of the scientific community. In that sense, I take "the science is settled" to clearly mean that we ARE warming and it IS anthropogenically-induced, but I don't hear people claim we know everything.
  8. I keep seeing this brought up as some sort of talking point, but who has stated that we "know all"? Seriously.
  9. Yup. Plus the 1-in-1000 year stuff isn't really even related to CC, it's just a statistical measure.
  10. See edit above. I believe the extra is 91F on April 16th.
  11. Adding New Brunswick, NJ through today: 90 degree days: 17 (April: 1, May: 2, June: 6, July: 8) 89 degree days: 1
  12. Seconded suggestion for this book! Great, comprehensive resource for all things mesoscale.
  13. You are a very powerful poster.

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