40/70 Benchmark

I have learned the hard way to not mock alternative viewpoints. I know I teased Chuck about the -PDO following strong El Nino push back, but that was just because the data is supportive of it right now. He could ultimately be right, but we will need to confirm that posthumously...hence my sarcasm.

Well, everything was initially "bunk", until it wasn't. I have no issue with it, as long the presenter is transparent about it. He admitted it's a pioneer concept, but that doesn't necessarily mean that it's incorrect.

All ribbing aside, I love the fact that you think outside of the box...I think that is necessary because if the "inner box" conceptualizations were working, we would have gleaned a modicum of skill with the seasonal forecasting arena.

So it sounds pretty frontier and skeptical....but I am open to it.

Yup...this is why I have theorized that we actually want a RONI equal to, or exceeding the ONI. The lagging RONI is indicative of competing cool ENSO AAM. This point it what was lost on me in 2015 and 2023.

Yea, all of the strong El Nino events that worked out in terms of an active east coast winter had a pronounced period of NAO blocking...only real argument to be made is 2002, but that is significantly weaker than this event should be.

I haven't see any literature supporting a 2-3 month lag.

Does it have the potential to be as poor as 2015? At this stage, absolutely. Are there still avenues to a better season? Sure.

This is new to me. 2-3 month lagged response?? One thing I will need to look at when doing my post season analysis next week is the connection of +WPO to the more active Pac jet, as last season was strongly -WPO. It may be that this analysis is difficult to do on a seasonal level, and it needs to be analyzed on a weekly basis. Additionally, I'm sure it's not a perfect correlation (increased PAC jet strength/+WPO), either.

Agreed, there were some competing forces. I have also mentioned that last season still had a notable dearth of true coastals, February blizzard not withstanding. However, we were still able to produce above average snowfall because it was consistently so anomalously cold. I think it was a combination of factors....I agree CC is playing a hand, but it's also important not to get carried away with over attribution. There are other reasons last season was not a 1995 redux....most notably, the solar cycle was somewhat more hostile and there wasn't as much high latitude blocking. There was indeed a far amount last season given the high solar/strong -QBO combo, but 1995 featured one of the more impressive seasonal blocking displays on record given the ascending solar phase shortly after min. That being said, I do agree 1995 was a decent analog in some respects...it was one of my main ENSO analogs. I did try to address all of this in my write-up. The Limitation of Traditional Conceptualizations In A Warming Climate The Relative Ocean Nino Index (RONI) attempts to remove the trend due to global warming in an effort to produce a measure that is of more direct relevance to changes in tropical convection driven by SST anomalies, rather than the general warming around the globe. This is similar to the issues addressed with respect to the original PDO patterns in that the general background warming alters these traditional relationships. Just as the west Pacific warm pool enhances the general cold phase of the Pacific despite the general warming along the coast of the western CONUS, it also strengthens the proclivity for the MJO to frequent the MC in a similar fashion to canonical La Nina despite any competing forces. In this case, the competing force is perhaps some heightened convection and vertical ascent in the vicinity of the dateline relative to what would normally be expected for a cool ENSO event. Thus it is probably unreasonable to expect as consistently of a cold pattern as seen in an older analog, such as 1995-1996, due to the increased baseline tendency for MC forcing and Pacific jet extensions. Note the absence of subsidence in the vicinity of the dateline in the traditional weak and east-based La Niña composites. However, the most recent weak and east-based events are not devoid of this Modoki like subsidence in this area, rather it is just more subdued. This is indicative of considerable periods of MC forcing and Pacific jet extensions, albeit less pronounced than in a canonical La Niña that is more west-based. This is also illustrated by the aforementioned increase in the Pacific jet over time. How this manifests in terms of the RONI is that these modern La Niña events often have stronger RONI values due to the west Pacific warm pool accentuating the cool ENSO influence. This is what feedbacks into the pattern that reenforces the cold over Siberia and warmth east of Japan that embodies the +WPO regime, and strengthens the jet. Below is the progression over the past quarter of a century in the north Pacific relative to the intensity of the Aleutian low, as the attendant Hadley Cell has continued to expand northward. Note that this western Pacific warmth was less pronounced in the older La Nina analog composite, which is why the jet was weaker in the mean. Given that the 2017 La Nina had an ASO RONI value of -.71 and ultimately peaked at -1.24(.53), and the ASO 2021 value was -.91 and descended to -1.23 (.32), the anticipated peak range from the current ASO value of -.78 is between -1 and -1.2. This range is essentially a compromise between the slightly lower range suggested by the aforementioned analogs, and current guidance, which is supportive of a slightly higher peak of -.9, which has been inching lower. The forecast range is on the periphery of weak and moderate designation, although it will likely be considered weak due to both the paltry ONI and 90 day SOI of 6.47, as well as a lack of the discernible Pacific pressure dipole that is characteristic of well established cool ENSO.

Fair enough, but all else being equal, I would still bet on +PDO developing during a stronger El Nino....especially given the past few events have been accompanied by -PDO.

Kind of analogous to ENSO in that the PDO cycle itself is still operating as it always has, however, the baseline warming is limiting it's ability to drive the weather pattern around the hemisphere. Interesting.

CANSIPS looks a bit more neutralish to me, since the warmth displaced northward slightly...probably in part why the model is colder in the east next winter.

I always joke about this, but that emboldened line is the kiss of death from you. I read that, and instantly knew that the next line would be something casting doubt on the notion of a +PDO accompanying the El Nino. Haha I can't imagine this being another 2023 in terms of the PDO. I think if it remains negative, it will be marginal. Just talking about the actual DM mean index reading....not trying to imply that the winter can't still be awful for the east.