40/70 Benchmark

It doesn't really add up IMO....they have slightly above average precip, normal temps...yet below average snow.

Everytime you post one of these inane click-whores' content, a weenie gets it's bun, and a brain cell dies.

I think the NAO will be okay in Decmber before becoming hostile for mid season, then turns more favorable in February...very much in line with raindance. Gun-to-head picking a single season that mirrors the expected behavior of the NAO, it would be 2022-2023. If you read between the lines, my stance was obvious last summer. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/08/preview-of-polar-domain-for-winter-2025.html

Agreed.

100% same page.

Yes.

I think 2013-2014 is definitely worthy of inclusion as an analog...most notably for it's statospheric reflection events during mid season. It's an awful polar analog...agree there.

No, the pattern has sucked...not arguing that. Bu no luck at all....going to have to disagree, as I often will when anyone speaks in absolutes, at least at this latitude. I had 42.5" in 2021-2022....a good 20" below my longer term average.

I didn't so much better than you....we often have pretty congruent obs.

Luck was still involved in general, as it always is....this is why I finished below average snowfall in each of those seasons, as I have each season since 2018-2019.

There will be some large differences from the 2013-2014 season, but for some reason, only a certain charcter of divergences are being discussed. I don't hear much mention of the fact that this season is likely to feature more high latitude blocking. It's indirectly referenced....ie, the poor QBO match will be offered as evidence against the analog in general, but little analysis elaborates on what that may entail; a weaker PV. And I've seen the research linking the -IDO to reduced coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere, and linking -QBO to reduced poleward ridging. Be that as it may, differences in an of themselves don't necessarily perclude a similar sensible weather outcome after accounting for CC.

Yea, I'm not saying it's a precise overlay...but generally similar....I think January '22 had more of longitudinal element to the gradient...this is more latitude.

This is actually pretty similar to the January 2022 event in terms of QPF distribution...same haves and have nots.

Much needed rain, regardless...but glad this one was a practice run.

Yea, it's going to be raining the majority of the day, but not going to add up to much outside of CJ land and the higher terrain. Very banded, and the bands will favor said areas.