40/70 Benchmark

I'll be absolutely floored if my area doesn't do better.

IOD/WPO correlation. I don't doubt the La Nina correlation....Modoki favors positive NAO/flat Aleutian ridging and EP is more favorable for negative NAO/poleward Aleutian ridging. Anyway, obviously exceptions with regard to both correlations. I would favor weak +WPO/NAO in the DJFM mean this season.

Low of 39.7. Back up to 44.6

Just eyeballing.......while I don't doubt the correlation, there are plenty of exceptions.

Correct. This place is much more reasonable and grounded than mainsteam social media.

Should end any residual delusions of grandeur regarding the ultimate intensity of this cool ENSO event.

That said, while I don't expect a supernova strength PV this year, it should be a positive NAO in the seasonal mean.

It was also a Modoki La Nina....nothing is in a vacuum.

I think the analog does have some utility....it's a great ENSO analog....but there are also some glaring limitations; namely the solar cycle and the western Pacific.

I know...was sarcastically operating off of the premise that the SAI is correlated to winter. I wasn't refuting anthing...don't worry, I'm not trying to steal your CC.

Still 63.1 at home...front probably through in about an hour or so..

Yea, the trick has been pulling this off during the actual cold season....the shoulder seasons of fall and spring have been more prone to traditional blocking patterns, likely owed to the shorter wave lengths rendering Rosby waves less vulnerable to Pac jet intrusions.

Eh, can't win 'em all.

Yea, the loop will be over western CT in a couple of months.