40/70 Benchmark

Yea, last night we officially moved to the vacuous "better/worse" OTS resignation.

Agree. Yea, I would rank this ahead of 2003-2004, but kind of similar tendencies. Yea, that December 5th event got wiped that year.

It's now that time of year where the pack decays quickly in the absence of replenishment.

If I had to choose a winter this reminded me of it would be 2003-2004....impressive cold, but not really one I would care to relive again because there was only one good storm. ...though I got porked in the biggie that season, so this year would rank ahead of it.

It never is.....anytime there is a major storm modeled near the east coast that doesn't end up on a headline, it's usually not geographically far off from doing so. Like I said last night, it's not "over"...we are going to do this all week, but it in the end it's likely to be a blue-ball special.

Yea, hot, steamaing pile of excrement lol

06z GFS appears as though it's struggling with the convection, as it has like 8 different lows.

I'd love to see a slightly shallower trough with the N energy phasing in more aggressively.

Obviously track is one issue, but I would also like to see this close off later.

Like I said last week, the dip may have just been rushed...we are seeing some trending towards that.

Yea, I mentioned folks have up on that reversal too quickly...maybe it won't technically get there, but it will be close.

Yes, the "fast flow" explanation is a bit too reductive IMHO.

Yes, exactly.

Irony being @MJO812has been citing the decaying block as the reason we are going to get a big storm all week

I don't understand how fast flow in-and-of-itself would favor one longitude for phasing over another. Now, what I do understand is why tropical forcing overlayed onto said speed-of-flow increase may do that.