40/70 Benchmark

Sorry, had to do a screenshot or this site drives me nuts over the size. CFS 2m temp anomaly forecast for JFM.

As do I, but again....don't expect that pervasive of an RNA.

Yea, I'm sure it would be warmer for Xmas.

Okay, I absolutely agree with this. The is in sync with my observation about how dialectical seasonal forecasting has become.

Solar max and QBO east seasons aren't exactly void of blocking potential, either. Research by Gray et al, 2004 elaborates on the complex relationship between the solar cycle and the QBO phase. Integrating Solar & QBO Research for a Comprehensive Polar Forecast The aforementioned Holton-Tan relationship, which dictates that an easterly QBO is correlated with both a greater incidence of, and an earlier development of SSW, becomes more complicated when considering the solar cycle. In some cases, when the QBO and solar cycle are in conflict, they can either over ride one another or even cancel each other out (Gray et al 2004). Here is a list of combinations and the theorized relationships for clarity. Solar min/W QBO: This is entirely consistent with the Holton-Tan relationship in that the westerly QBO essentially "wins". The PV is likely to be stronger than average until the final warming in spring. Solar max/W QBO: In this case, the Holton-Tan relationship is applicable early on in the season, as major warmings are unlikely. However, the Holton-Tan relationship reverses mid winter and the latter portion of the season from February onward is susceptible to warmings and major PV disruption. Winter 2024-2025 was a textbook example of this. Solar Min/E QBO: There are no inconsistencies here, as the entire season is more prone to polar vortex disruptions and SSW as per the Holton-Tan relationship. Solar Max/E QBO (2025-2026): The Holton-Tan relationship applies early on given that PV disruptions are likely in December, before the relationship reverses and they are less likely later in the season

What I mean is there is more than one avenue to a similar sensible weather outcome......ie, just because SST patterns are differetn doesn't necessarily preclude an analog seasons from ultimately being a valid analog in terms of sensible weather. All this proves is that 2013-2014 is not an ostenisbly viable N PAC analog, however, that does not necessarily mean that the coming season won't have some similarities. I think there is plenty of support for poleward ridging, regardless.

Anyway, don't get me wrong....I'm not trying to go JB here and start hypng to hell.....but I feel as though seasonal forecasting has really become polarized, and lacks nuance. On the one hand, we have the lust for clicks on social media driving the hype train, and on the other hand we have this group of enthusiasts and pros that have adopted this insipid style of forecating whereas one should forecast warmth first, and think later, if at all. They are both equally as ill advised IMHO, though obviously the latter will verify better over the long run simply due to CC, rather than any actual skill. And I am not grouping people like Chris into that, either.....there are those who forecast warmth that present a great deal of data in support of said outcome and forth in a great deal of effort. However, there are some who have become "lazy", or unimaginative, so to speak. Not directed at anyone specifically...more of a general observation.

I highly doubt a PNA that biased towards negtive, but we'll see. Possible-

Okay....if that is the case, it would seem a warmer version of 2013-2014 adjusted for CC is a perfectly a viable option.

Don, can you do me a favor and let me know how many analogs you have that are a 100% match? Thanks.

Which is all the QBO difference means.

Probably a weaker PV this year then....winter cancel. Honestly though, you have this habit of dispelling analogs due to random differences.

Perhaps you should start.

How did I know you would elicit a wrothless contribution from you.....let me ask you this...say you have a routine that consists of making disparaging remarks to winter enthusiasts on a weather forum while taking a $hit each day...I know, not like any loser would do that, but humor me. Each day, you notice prior to flushing that the log that represents the culimation of your efforts is brown; but this one day it's actually blue. While it's not remarkable that there is yet another log in the toilet after trolling 40/70 online, would it be notable that saig log was blue instead of brown? The dog sh cfs is consistently warm, bro. Ponder that while harassing AMWX members from the $hitter tomrrow-

Looks to be a severe -WPO/EPO.....somewhat +PNA and a modestly -NAO/AO. PNA and especially AO are iffy...