40/70 Benchmark

I putting the finishing touches on my stuff....just about done. If not this weekend, Monday,

No surprise to me....I was saying I wasn't at all considering La Niña peaking early when you commented on the subsurface warmth last month. Same thing happened over the summer, and in 2008....which peaked LATE.

I would not expect a very cold Decemer, - NAO just delivers consistently pedestrian departures. You need the +TNH get really cold values...and this is assuming tha the -NAO isn't overdone, which it probably is.

135.5 Final ACE

Found it. If Anthony didn't post the EURO, then the EURO looks just like whatever he posted.

I think the absence of a severe RNA would also help...sure, the Pac jet would still mitigate KU potential, but it's not absolutely prohibitive to more moderate events.

Anyone have the EURO PV forecast?

The big rise since July was a given....it was at record levels.

I did wonder about warm ENSO before spring, but quickly relazed it wasn't happening. I do think we are nearing a PDO shift, but obviously not there yet.

Anyone know where Judah's fraud index landed? Guessing about normal?

Apprently all 5,323 -IOD graphics were earth shattering, even though no one can say definitevely how manifests into the pattern.

Yes, it's not ideal, though I would gladly take heaping serving of December 2007 with a side of December 2008. The ceiling in any single event isn't there, but they are defintely the safer bet in terms of a floor my area. There is a wide array of ways for my area to get proked in coastals, and I have found just about ever single one of them this decade independent of CC.

I'm confident that isn't permanent. SE Canada is going to get colder, as we saw last year and are likely about to again. That helps the NE more than the mid atl, but it is what it is.

It's definitely not zero....but I don't view this as a season that screams "KU".