40/70 Benchmark

Anyone have the EURO PV forecast?

The big rise since July was a given....it was at record levels.

I did wonder about warm ENSO before spring, but quickly relazed it wasn't happening. I do think we are nearing a PDO shift, but obviously not there yet.

Anyone know where Judah's fraud index landed? Guessing about normal?

Apprently all 5,323 -IOD graphics were earth shattering, even though no one can say definitevely how manifests into the pattern.

Yes, it's not ideal, though I would gladly take heaping serving of December 2007 with a side of December 2008. The ceiling in any single event isn't there, but they are defintely the safer bet in terms of a floor my area. There is a wide array of ways for my area to get proked in coastals, and I have found just about ever single one of them this decade independent of CC.

I'm confident that isn't permanent. SE Canada is going to get colder, as we saw last year and are likely about to again. That helps the NE more than the mid atl, but it is what it is.

It's definitely not zero....but I don't view this as a season that screams "KU".

I think it will be tough for VA.

I agree with what you are saying, but I highly doubt this "screw zone" is permanent...part of the issue has been the lack of cold in SE Canada, which seems to be changing, so there will be more snow indepenedent of BM blizzards.

Absolutely. Makes perfect sense. My guess is that we can, but will have to "make hay", so to speak in reduced intervals of time relative to similar patterns in the past.

Your contention is that the warm pool creates a +WPO pattern that promotes both a western storm track, and a fast jet that knocks down PNA ridges/shears phasing attempts and causes suppression, correct?

Yes. I agree with the vast majority of what you are saying.

I think the strat may offer some assistance late season, but if it doesn't, all bets are off. I will posting my thoughts early next week....a great deal of time is spent addressing many of the CC related issues that @bluewaveraises.