40/70 Benchmark

Are you speaking of 700mb RH?

10"

Not what I said....however, SSTAs are less impactful when ENSO is weak...take a look at 1976...east based event, yet crushed NE. Even with Nina....2000 was modoki, yet crushed NE. (similar solar/QBO to this year). When ENSO is weak, other factors play more of a role, like solar cycle, etc. 18-19 was low solar-descending solar/west QBO, which is a shitty combo. 2019 was neutral.

Agree. Big March incoming...

I would never have guessed that was under "lower"dynamics...

Thanks, I usually use F5 site for fronto, but only has EURO.

Thanks so much. Where is that fronto option of TT? Having trouble finding it...does it require subscription?

-EPO (+TNH) was a byproduct of high solar and exceptionally strong easterly QBO....like this year. The fact that it was a modoki El Niño helps, yes.

Take a look at weak El Niños versus stronger back throughout history.......2014, 2004, 1977, 1976, 1968...all weak and NE winters. 2015, 2009, 2002, 1986, 1982, 1957...those stronger ones get the mid Atlantic.

You are 100% WRONG....weak El Niño is best in SNE because the STJ is less pronounced....that is the reason I nailed that winter in my first outlook. I looked at ENSO as said with would be a SNE winter.

I give this winter a solid "B" so far.....can't give it an "A" being at normal snowfall after getting boned on the '78 redux. Let's see what can. happen during the final stanza to move this up...

I didn't used 2014-2015 as a seasonal analog because of ENSO, but it was in my +TNH composite for latter January into February.

I was off by 6 days on the Blizzard, too....my largest KU window began March 1.

I should also add that the east doesn't even necessarily need a reversal because I this that the first half of March will be wintry, anyway.

Early March was my last window.