40/70 Benchmark

Yea-pump that east wind

Oh, no.... That's the run we chase for 10 days only to never find again.

I haven't seen anyone predicting a +PNA for February, but if so, I would agree that they are woefully misguided.

I was thinking the same thing yesterday driving home...I'm like, I wish tonight's cloud deck had moved in middayish

EURO

Looks like a huge Norlun centered on CT over 1000'.

Erection slowly activated....

Yea, I mean I'm not saying it can't whiff, either...it's just fraught with uncertainty, which is why I'm reluctant to bite into it. Made that mistake last week. I can just ignore if I don't introduce and it goes away.

Yea, I know...I was more referencing John's comment. Maybe he's right, but I would just be careful about expecting the same N Pac setup to have that exact, same result later in the season, as far as stifling storminess.

Frankly, the WPO isn't that important in March due to wave lengths shortening, so can't even be sure that would have the same stifling impact that it did earlier in the season.

Not necessarily fooled AFAIC, but to me, that is close enough at several months lead.

GEFS probably won't.

I don't anticipate lights out in March, at least for the NE, anyway.

Yea, that is our only shot with VD Day IMO...you can see the OP Euro erodes it faster, which is why it has had an inland runner a la Feb 2023, whereas the OP GFS keeps it more stout and we go a more Jan 2011 route.

Same...I was incorporating everything...I would follow the ONI as long as the RONI and MEI weren't inordinately different....if they were, I would defer to them and maybe use ONI as a tie-breaker. I probably still will.