40/70 Benchmark

Like I said, too much warmth.

Right....events that strong always have warmth in region 1.2. Okay.....I get that. But that doesn't make me wrong....good luck getting one that doesn't.

That is a composite only a mother could love.

Exceptionally strong....I don't argue 1.5-2.0 can be favorable.

Maybe I'm wrong...but until I see data to the contrary, I will feel as though extremely strong ENSO is hostile for high latitude blocking.

Right....on average.....exceptionally strong events aren't average.

No, I'm not "stuck"....what I do know is there is literal dearth of high latitude blocking when ENSO is exceptionally powerful, and I don't think that's a coincidence. Okay, the sample size is small....but it still is what it is.

I would prefer it a bit weaker...but I don't doubt we could have had a good interlude(s) if the polar domain were not so hostile. I compare all of these analogs with a fine-tooth comb this summer and fall.

Agree 100%.

Orientation doesn't matter much for weak events, either.....much more disparity in weak events....ie east-based events that were colder, and west-based that were warmer.

Not counting one KU in the mid Atlantic....I mean above average snowfall throughout the NE and colder than average.

I think it's a combination of the fact that there is so much excess heat in extreme warm ENSO, and it impacts the Atlantic STJ in such a manner that is very hostile to high latitude blocking. I'd have to look back at the research to double check..been a minute.

I knew you would call sample size Well, once we get a big NE winter with a 2.1+ El Niño, I'll capitulate.

No argument there....highly doubt it averages negative for the season next year.