40/70 Benchmark

Pretty close to a full split.....I would wait to see what actually verified because I still anticipate a full split, more akin to 2018 and 2023.

Yea, we'll see...I certainly don't expect a perfect forecast from 3 months lead.

I do like 2023 as a late season analog (Feb-March), but the RNA shouldn't be as extreme.

Yea. I'm impressed with the AI suite overall.

VDDay coming up..no better time to fully exorcise those Kristine demons.

Relative to WINDEX, I wouldn't be surprised.....great if that's your thing. Personally, I'd prefer large winter storm threat and I'm still not sure I see one, unfortunately.

Looks like the main PV lobe is headed to Asia. That is why the airmass grows rather stale on this side of the hemisphere beyond about Feb 10th.

Yea, probably a great pattern for NNE.

I guess I sensed an optimistic tone in your interpretation. Agree concerning volatility, but I think the correction vector in terms of at least the middle third of the month is warmer. Hopefully I'm wrong.

I don't echo Steve's optimism that we are geared up for a conveyor belt of prime threats. I think it's going to be a messy month that will scrap and claw it's way to near climo snowfall in SNE.

I'm not saying it's a warm-sector with all rain...but it's probably a mess for SNE.

Yup.

Yea, this weekend into the onset of early next week concludes the utility of the 2015 analog...that is coming to an end.

My guess for that bigger VD event is that you will want to be up and in....probably not too unlike OP GFS, but maybe more aggressive triple point development.

I agree for the most part, but I think we will get above average for a stretch centered on the time of the SSW/split....kind of like January with the cold start-moderation-colder finish, but the PNA will be reversed...ie January had the first week RNA carry over from December before PNA took over. Here we have the initial carry over +PNA from January until RNA rules the majority of the month. Feb def. won't be as cold as January relative to climo....the N Pacific will also probably break more hostile for at least an interval mid month, along with NAO.