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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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cstrunk

cstrunk

Posted
Posted

I sure hope we can get at least an inch out of this system coming through tonight through Friday. The radar looks nice in Oklahoma, and that is heading south. If nothing else it will be nice to have highs in the 80's instead of 90's for a few days after the front comes through.

 

Had a couple sprinkles but that's it. The precip fell apart over East Texas. Cloud cover will likely inhibit thunderstorms in my area this afternoon, but we'll see. Still hoping for at least some appreciable rainfall over the next couple days. It's very humid but at least the temperatures are being held in check with the clouds.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

This will be a bit earlier than normal cold front, at least here, and as far south as the SW GoM (though, in a Niño year, this is a bit expected). We will have to monitor any tropical mischief at it's tail end when it becomes stationary and interacts with a TW and the trough associated to the cold front provides strong ventilation (and shear, at least in the beginning).

 

Yeah, it looks like a complicated process and the proximity to land could give the models fits. 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

Relief is on its way to Austin.  The AggieDome may hold for the days, but expect showers to overrun us tomorrow.

 

As WxMx outlined the front could be the recipe for tropical gumbo down towards Campeche during the weekend.

24 100 degree days looks like how we'll end up, yesterday hit 99-this front should end the opportunities for us to hit 100 again. 

 

Rolling thunderstorms around the area tonight-always good to have some rain after the scorching. 

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

From the Bering Sea to the North Sea and points south, nothing but AN heights. Don't think I've seen that before.

Yea, just seems like we need something to shake things up. I figured September would be warm but also thought we would see more rain than we have. Still think the unique SST configuration will give us fits this winter. Lot's of winter forecast will bust this year (but that's every year lol!)

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PelicanGuy

PelicanGuy

Posted
Posted

A little stormy this morning across SE Louisiana, with a couple of warnings.

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL ST. BERNARD PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
NORTHWESTERN PLAQUEMINES PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 1145 AM CDT

* AT 1116 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR POYDRAS...OR 10 MILES EAST OF BELLE CHASSE...AND MOVING WEST
AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELLE CHASSE...CHALMETTE...VIOLET...POYDRAS AND MERAUX.

 

***************

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
BRETON SOUND...
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA OUT 20 NM...

* UNTIL 1215 PM CDT

* AT 1128 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS AND WINDS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER...
LOCATED 13 NM SOUTHEAST OF BARATARIA BAY...MOVING NORTH AT 25
KNOTS.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY OPEN WATERS.

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PelicanGuy

PelicanGuy

Posted
Posted

The tornado warning has been reissued by NWS Slidell. No reports of any damage.

 

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
west central St. Bernard Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
northwestern Plaquemines Parish in southeastern Louisiana...

* until 1215 PM CDT

* at 1144 am CDT... Doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm
capable of producing a tornado. This dangerous storm was located
over Poydras... or 7 miles east of Belle Chasse... and moving west at
10 mph.

* Locations impacted include...
Belle Chasse... Poydras and Violet. 

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
Posted

This has been one of the most bipolar years I can remember: a winter where we essentially had no chance from November - February and then we pull out two great events in the last week of Feb and first week of March. Then, we go from brutal drought to flood conditions with record rains in May. Then the rest of the year it's been bone dry again, and drought returns. nuts.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

So what model are you guys hugging for the end of next week?

 

GFS

 

gfs_z500a_us_29.png

 

or Euro?

 

ecmwf_z500a_us_8.png

And to top it off, the Euro retrogrades it from there leaving most of N. and NE Texas dry in NW flow aloft...

 

The ensembles don't really support that outcome but the persistent dry pattern across our area is hard to bet against at this point. 

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Time to start getting hype for Winter! (unless it is dry and warm...)The Euro weeklies look really wet across most of Texas but warm as well for October... I guess warm and wet is better than warm and dry.  It is also looking like there will be another big WWB out over the Pacific and probably an associated burst in typhoon activity. So maybe some of that energy will get transported to the high latitudes and kick some cold air down across the US.

 

I'll leave y'all with this:

 

The only winters since 1950 with greater than 10" of snowfall for the season in DFW area were all El Niño winters. h/t @NWSFortWorth

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
Posted

The only Ninos I remember of this magnitude are 82-83 and 97-98 and they were putrid locally. limited sample size and all that. Going to be optimistic this year even if it kills me. I keep repeating "09-10" to myself. It's a poor analog but one that isn't is 87-88 and that was fairly decent. Nothing memorable but cold and wintry throughout.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

One reason I am hopeful for this winter is the current SST configuration

 

10ie4uc.png

 

If you pull out the "cold" El Nino winters for our area then you get a configuration that matches the current SSTs spatially but nothing compares to the current anomalies in the yellow area. Then when you look at the "warm" winters the yellow circle area is close to normal and then there is a cold tongue that extends from just north of Australia to the blue circle. However, I'm still worried that the magnitude of the warm anomalies and overall coverage will make for something squirrely.  

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

So what model are you guys hugging for the end of next week?

 

GFS

 

 

 

or Euro?

 

 

And to top it off, the Euro retrogrades it from there leaving most of N. and NE Texas dry in NW flow aloft...

 

The ensembles don't really support that outcome but the persistent dry pattern across our area is hard to bet against at this point. 

 

And the Euro wins and the drought marches on...

 

From FWD overnight discussion:

 

IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE RIDGING ON THE WEST COAST...THAT WILL

REPLACE THE DEPARTING LOW...WILL BE TOO AMPLIFIED TO KEEP THE LOW

WITHIN THE POLAR JET STREAM. THIS MEANS THAT IT IS INCREASINGLY

LIKELY THAT THE LOW WILL CUT OFF WELL TO OUR WEST. EL NINO FANS

SHOULD NOT DESPAIR...AS THERE WILL STILL BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND

INSTABILITY SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION FOR RAIN CHANCES BOTH

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. BUT

FOR DROUGHT-STRICKEN EAST TEXAS...THIS EVENT MAY NOT PROVIDE MUCH

RELIEF.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO DIVE REMARKABLY FAR SOUTH

INTO MEXICO...BEFORE RETROGRADING. THIS WILL MEAN UNSEASONABLY

STRONG LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL RETURN TO TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEX

GUIDANCE IS PROJECTING LOW TO MID 90S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MORE

THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH A PROLONGED WARM

AND DRY PERIOD WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK...SO OUR RAINFALL

TALLIES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF OCTOBER WILL LIKELY HINGE ON THE

EVENT LATER THIS WEEK.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

The DFW area is looking warm and dry through the middle of October and who knows beyond that. Going over a few things and September being warm and dry shouldn't have been a surprise to anyone but things should flip to cooler and wetter at some point. November looks below normal and wet but December should bounce back to warmer. However, October looked like it would be below normal temp and above precipitation but that will be hard to get to at this point unless there is a major flip for the 2nd half of the month. 

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