E Pacific Tropical Action of 2014

[Yellow Evan]

Still better than anything the Atlantic has produced in like... forever

 

The first 4 storms yea. Elida and Fausto remind me of most ATL storms though. Meh, even El nino years sometimes get crap (Olivia 06, Ignacio 09, Marty 97).

[Yellow Evan]

Fausto is gone. What a fail.

[Yellow Evan]

New lemon. Even if it forms it is likely to be another dud.

[Yellow Evan]

New lemon. Even if it forms it is likely to be another dud.

 

Now a mandarin. Could be Wali or Genevieve. 

[Yellow Evan]

Invest'd now. Not much time left for it to form.

[Yellow Evan]

90E nearing the CPAC. Further east, there are some hints at stuff in the models in a few days, but I doubt we'll see a hurricane.

[Yellow Evan]

90E a lemon in the CPAC.

[Yellow Evan]

Per CPHC, 90E is now 1C.

 

Edit: Now Wali.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

[Superstorm93]

Epac got kinda active.

NHC broke out all the crayons.

[Yellow Evan]

Wali long gone, but yea, a bunch of storms coming.

 

First, we ave a mandarin/cherry in Invest 91E. It should form, but be somewhat weak (I'd say solid TS)

 

To its left, we have a mandarin. It might not form, and if it does, may do so in the CPAC.

 

Behind 91E, we have a mandarin. It has the most potential of the four, and could become a decent hurricane.

 

Behind that, we have a lemon. It might form, but GFS at 12z does not show it. But it has a tendency to propagate the MJO too fast (though last time, it verified) . EPAC looks favorable from now till at least the end of month, possibly continuing into early August if the GFS/ENCMWF are incorrect.

[Amped]

 

GFS really loving the east and central Pac.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

I can't remember the eastern pacific being that active at the same time in a really long time.  The most I can remember is 2 storms at once, although I'm sure 3 occurred recently, but can't think of when.

[Yellow Evan]

I can't remember the eastern pacific being that active at the same time in a really long time.  The most I can remember is 2 storms at once, although I'm sure 3 occurred recently, but can't think of when.

 

In 2005, there were 4 storms at once.

[Yellow Evan]

So, a little update.

 

We have 5 storms right now.

 

Our biggest threat to develop is 91E, which is a cherry. But it'll run into shear in a few days, and if it forms, will be ANOTHER weak TS in the middle of nowhere.

 

In the CPAC, there is a mandarin.

 

Elsewhere, there are two lemons left of 91E, both which have some potential, but on too poor of a connection to check models atm.

 

There is another system behind it that has a 20% in the five day TWO and may form next week. But not for a while.

[phil882]

So, a little update.

 

We have 5 storms right now.

 

Our biggest threat to develop is 91E, which is a cherry. But it'll run into shear in a few days, and if it forms, will be ANOTHER weak TS in the middle of nowhere.

 

In the CPAC, there is a mandarin.

 

Elsewhere, there are two lemons left of 91E, both which have some potential, but on too poor of a connection to check models atm.

 

There is another system behind it that has a 20% in the five day TWO and may form next week. But not for a while.

 

91E is now Genevieve (and probably has been at TS intensity for the last 18-24 hours according to ASCAT). Its future doesn't look bright though as it will be struggling against the outflow of 91C. 93E behind it looks pretty good and has a decent shot at TD/TS classification before it experiences the same problems. The best looking system and probably the one with the biggest likelihood of significant intensification (into a hurricane and beyond) is 94E as it has some decent separation from the remainder of the systems in the monsoon trough which should be a boon for it from an inflow and outflow perspective.

 

And the funny thing is, the MJO convectively active phase is still out over the WPAC. This period of activity probably won't be ending anytime soon.

[icebreaker5221]

Time to upgrade 93E?  I personally would like to see a bit stronger westerlies south of the center and convection wrapping all the way around, but should be enough to warrant a TD classification at the next advisory time IMO. 

 

 

[Yellow Evan]

Time to upgrade 93E?  I personally would like to see a bit stronger westerlies south of the center and convection wrapping all the way around, but should be enough to warrant a TD classification at the next advisory time IMO. 

 

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WMBds40.png

 

I don't think 94E is much far behind either IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

So, quick little update.

 

Genevieve continues as a 40 knt weakling. It faces an uncertain future.

 

Behind that, 93E and 94E are almost classifiable. 94E has hurricane potential. 93E is in the WDR an near cool SST's.

 

NHC TWO mentions another system that could form behind that.

[phil882]

Time to upgrade 93E?  I personally would like to see a bit stronger westerlies south of the center and convection wrapping all the way around, but should be enough to warrant a TD classification at the next advisory time IMO. 

 

rgb-animated.gif

 

WMBds40.png

 

Apparently there is no rush getting in getting 93E classified...

 

93E

 

 

Genievive

 

 

The best looking in terms of microwave presentation is TD8-E which could rapidly intensify over the next 24-36 hours if it can develop an inner core quickly.

 

TD8-E

 

[Yellow Evan]

93E is probs TD worthy right now, and I'm expecting an upgrade.

 

8E I agree, has a shot at RI. Remember we have a CCKW, which aid RI, as indicated by the basin's 3 most recent majors, as well as MJO. But it only has ~48 hours. It'll probs be a Calvin 11-like system, though I have a feeling this could be a re-Guillermo 09. 

 

Genieve well is rather meh, and down to 35 knts. I'm more interested in the other two systems.

[Yellow Evan]

Now that i8E's peak was lowered at 15z from 60 knts to 50 knts, I am more torn on intensification. There is not much non-HWRF support (HWRF is the only one that makes it a hurricane, granted it is one of the best models). GFDL, GFS, Euro, SHIPS, and LGEM keep it less than 50 knts.l On the other hand, conditions look quite good and it's nicely organized. We'll see if it can quickly develop an inner core. If it does, I'd call for a minimal hurricane. If not, It'll be another dud.

[thewxmann]

Now that i8E's peak was lowered at 15z from 60 knts to 50 knts, I am more torn on intensification. There is not much non-HWRF support (HWRF is the only one that makes it a hurricane, granted it is one of the best models). GFDL, GFS, Euro, SHIPS, and LGEM keep it less than 50 knts.l On the other hand, conditions look quite good and it's nicely organized. We'll see if it can quickly develop an inner core. If it does, I'd call for a minimal hurricane. If not, It'll be another dud.

 

Questionable. It's gotten an upgrade and has done well on a few systems but it's still a far cry from being one of the best.

[Ground Scouring]

Now that i8E's peak was lowered at 15z from 60 knts to 50 knts, I am more torn on intensification. There is not much non-HWRF support (HWRF is the only one that makes it a hurricane, granted it is one of the best models). GFDL, GFS, Euro, SHIPS, and LGEM keep it less than 50 knts.l On the other hand, conditions look quite good and it's nicely organized. We'll see if it can quickly develop an inner core. If it does, I'd call for a minimal hurricane. If not, It'll be another dud.

This system has very little time before it moves over cooler waters, so I'd say its potential will be arrested. Otherwise, the UL support looks fantastic for RI.

[phil882]

This system has very little time before it moves over cooler waters, so I'd say its potential will be arrested. Otherwise, the UL support looks fantastic for RI.

 

Yea... its moving quite a bit faster than I was originally expecting. Its a shame too because its organizing nicely today with a textbook environment. 

 

EDIT: I still not sold this won't make it to at least minimal hurricane intensity. Inner core looks to be getting better organized in a hurry.

 

 

SHIPS agrees there is a decent chance at RI

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.5 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[phil882]

Yea RI looks to be commencing. 

 

[Ground Scouring]

Given the evidence of a developing CDO, the small inner core, and the great upper-level support (divergence at H2, with a deep moist band from the ITCZ wrapping around the core to offset dry air intrusion to the NW), I think that once the eye clears out, Hernan could be rather close to major hurricane intensity. In this environment, DVORAK is telling. Once again, climatology for RI may be winning out in this case, despite the relatively quick forward speed, which does seem to have slowed down over the past several hours--just enough to allow Hernan to take advantage of the warm SSTA before they taper off.

[Yellow Evan]

Given the evidence of a developing CDO, the small inner core, and the great upper-level support (divergence at H2, with a deep moist band from the ITCZ wrapping around the core to offset dry air intrusion to the NW), I think that once the eye clears out, Hernan could be rather close to major hurricane intensity. In this environment, DVORAK is telling. Once again, climatology for RI may be winning out in this case, despite the relatively quick forward speed, which does seem to have slowed down over the past several hours--just enough to allow Hernan to take advantage of the warm SSTA before they taper off.

 

I don't think it has the time to intensify beyond 80 knts. But we'll see. 

[Yellow Evan]

Given the evidence of a developing CDO, the small inner core, and the great upper-level support (divergence at H2, with a deep moist band from the ITCZ wrapping around the core to offset dry air intrusion to the NW), I think that once the eye clears out, Hernan could be rather close to major hurricane intensity. In this environment, DVORAK is telling. Once again, climatology for RI may be winning out in this case, despite the relatively quick forward speed, which does seem to have slowed down over the past several hours--just enough to allow Hernan to take advantage of the warm SSTA before they taper off.

 

I don't think it has the time to intensify beyond 80 knts. But we'll see. 

[tmagan]

The Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook graphic looks straight from the 1970's.