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Winter Weather Expert Paul Kocin, Jack Beven from the NHC joins AmWx Conference II
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Spring and Severe weather speculation
Started By
SpartyOn
, 4 Feb 2012 07:16 PM
#36
Posted 18 February 2012 - 01:48 PM
A relevant slide from Dr. Greg Forbes' presentation at Chaser Con '12...
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#37
Posted 18 February 2012 - 08:21 PM
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- Joined December 19, 2010
The Tornado Titans blog is also hinting at the possibility of an active first half of March:
http://www.tornadoti...inning-of-march
http://www.tornadoti...inning-of-march
#38
Posted 18 February 2012 - 09:15 PM
I would also keep an eye on the ongoing (and in some spots, worsening) drought. Despite MJO progression and typical 2nd-year La Nina climo, between the extreme drought conditions persisting in the Southern Plains (actually, it's worsening in the Desert SW), the warm lake waters and the sheer lack of snowcover and frost ANYWHERE, I highly doubt this Spring and Summer ends up being too cold or inactive severe weather wise.
That's not to say there won't be cold shots or snowstorms (and I'm sure there will be), but I think we can pretty much put the final nail in the coffin for the 2011-2012 winter in terms of sustained winter weather after the end of February/beginning of March.
#39
Posted 23 February 2012 - 08:59 AM
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Hoosier, on 17 February 2012 - 12:07 AM, said:
I'm gonna sort of go out on a limb and predict that some area of this forum will have a moderate or high risk before March 15.
Based on the recent SPC Day 1, I'm also going to go on a limb and predict that far southern Indiana and far southern Ohio might be upgraded to a low-end moderate risk later today (the recent forecast suggests 10% TOR probablity and 30%/hatched for wind).
http://www.spc.noaa....k/day1otlk.html
SPC AC 231238
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 AM CST THU FEB 23 2012
VALID 231300Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE U.S. TODAY...WITH A
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BY 24/12Z. GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND WIND
FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM...THERE APPEARS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY OVER THE OH VALLEY.
...OH VALLEY...
THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEVELOPING LOW OVER KS/OK WITH
A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AR INTO
THE OH VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD TODAY AS
LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR STRENGTHEN AND BACK. AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL HELP TO
TRANSPORT 50S DEWPOINTS AS FAR NORTH AS THE OH RIVER THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS VARY ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND HEATING THAT WILL OCCUR
IN THIS ZONE...BUT OVERNIGHT IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF IND/KY/OH. THIS
SHOULD YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1000 J/KG. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL INTENSIFY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON
OVER WESTERN KY/SOUTHERN IND AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THAT
AREA. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER LARGE HODOGRAPHS WITH
3KM SRH VALUES OF 400-500 M2/S2. VERY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
ARE FORECAST JUST AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC LOW ALONG THE WARM
FRONT...WHICH MAY LOCALLY AUGMENT VERTICAL SHEAR EVEN MORE.
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...CAPABLE OF HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND TORNADOES. STORMS MAY QUICKLY MERGE INTO A FAST-MOVING
MCS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORNADOES. THIS THREAT WILL LAST UNTIL AFTER DARK AS
STORMS SPREAD INTO WESTERN WV AND SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO DIURNAL
COOLING. QUESTIONS REGARDING THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN AND
DIABATIC HEATING ARE THE MAIN REASONS A MODERATE RISK WAS NOT
INSERTED AT THIS TIME.
...TN VALLEY...
FARTHER SOUTH...WIND FIELDS AND THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE CONDITIONALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF
TN/MS/AL/GA LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
THAT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL BE LACKING ACROSS THIS
REGION AND THAT A SUBTLE CAPPING INVERSION WILL SUPPRESS
DEVELOPMENT. NEVERTHELESS...WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS
MUCH OF THIS AREA DUE TO HIGH CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK IF ANY STORMS
CAN FORM ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE EVENING.
..HART/ROGERS.. 02/23/2012
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1358Z (7:58AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
#40
Posted 27 February 2012 - 05:45 PM
Hoosier, on 17 February 2012 - 12:07 AM, said:
I'm gonna sort of go out on a limb and predict that some area of this forum will have a moderate or high risk before March 15.
March 2?
#41
Posted 27 February 2012 - 06:31 PM
Hoosier, on 27 February 2012 - 05:45 PM, said:
March 2?
#43
Posted 27 February 2012 - 11:53 PM
GFS continues to show another sig/multi-day risk next week over a large area.
#44
Posted 27 February 2012 - 11:55 PM
Chicago Storm, on 27 February 2012 - 11:53 PM, said:
GFS continues to show another sig/multi-day risk next week over a large area.
#46
Posted 28 February 2012 - 02:14 AM
andyhb, on 28 February 2012 - 01:55 AM, said:
Euro is absolutely nuts with the system Chicago mentioned.
Severe from Canada to Texas if that verifies?
#47
Posted 28 February 2012 - 02:16 AM
Hoosier, on 28 February 2012 - 02:14 AM, said:
Severe from Canada to Texas if that verifies?
CMC also goes nuts with it.
I see JoMo lurking...I can't imagine he is liking what he is seeing...
#48
Posted 28 February 2012 - 05:52 AM
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Perfect configurations for a early seasonal outbreak.
#49
Posted 28 February 2012 - 08:29 AM
Angrysummons, on 28 February 2012 - 05:52 AM, said:
Perfect configurations for a early seasonal outbreak.
Finally something exciting to watch.
#50
Posted 28 February 2012 - 02:21 PM
Looong way out and of course could change significantly but I can't believe that warm sector on the system around 9-10 days. Euro has 50-55 degree dewpoints into northern Michigan which would be quite a feat for early March.
#51
Posted 29 February 2012 - 02:44 AM
Not calling for the apocalypse but I'm getting uneasy about Friday. I guess we will know more in a couple days.
#52
Posted 29 February 2012 - 02:46 AM
Hoosier, on 29 February 2012 - 02:44 AM, said:
Not calling for the apocalypse but I'm getting uneasy about Friday. I guess we will know more in a couple days.
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