297 replies to this topic

[Riptide]

Informative graphic from Jeff Masters on wunderground. According to this chart, neutral enso years feature the most active hurricane seasons on average. Something to keep in mind...the sample period is small though but relates to the current era of climate.

[am19psu]

LOL. What terrible misuse of statistics.

[Ed Lizard]

PSUBlizzicane2007, on 21 February 2012 - 02:53 PM, said:

Please remember *when* the El Nino developed in 2004. Thanks.

Your dislike of me and need to post face palms aside, please use your vastly greater knowledge to tell me why it matters, if the ENSO was positive during the season peak, why it matters whether it was already established or developing.

Besides annoyance at the never ending face palms, I'm actually curious as to whether the change of ENSO with time is a factor of importance of the same order of magnitude as the value of the ENSO. I assume you'd know.

[Ed Lizard]

am19psu, on 21 February 2012 - 03:48 PM, said:

LOL. What terrible misuse of statistics.

Masters has a doctorate in "pollution meteorology". Before that, he was HRD and flew into Gilbert. And I did Wunderground years before I heard of AmWx.

[wxmx]

Ed Lizard, on 21 February 2012 - 04:28 PM, said:

Masters has a doctorate in "pollution meteorology". Before that, he was HRD and flew into Gilbert Hugo. And I did Wunderground years before I heard of AmWx.

FYP

[Ed Lizard]

wxmx, on 21 February 2012 - 06:37 PM, said:

FYP

Merci beaucoup. It was Willoughby in Gilbert on that NOVA they should re-run monthly as a public service.

[Eyewall2005]

The way the past few seasons have gone with most storms recurving away from the US i've just about lost hope for any action near home. Maybe we'll get a repeat of 2004 with those once in lifetime favorable steering. Just pure luck the way i see it in terms of were the long wave position is when a TC makes a run at united states. As others have mentioned even if el nino developes which again seems pretty likely in my opinion we can still see considerable development.

[am19psu]

Eyewall2005, on 21 February 2012 - 11:30 PM, said:

The way the past few seasons have gone with most storms recurving away from the US i've just about lost hope for any action near home. Maybe we'll get a repeat of 2004 with those once in lifetime favorable steering. Just pure luck the way i see it in terms of were the long wave position is when a TC makes a run at united states. As others have mentioned even if el nino developes which again seems pretty likely in my opinion we can still see considerable development.

Dade County (along with Palm Beach, Collier and Monroe Counties) has the highest return period for major hurricanes in the entire country, but it's still only once every ten years or so.

[am19psu]

Ed Lizard, on 21 February 2012 - 04:28 PM, said:

Masters has a doctorate in "pollution meteorology". Before that, he was HRD and flew into Gilbert. And I did Wunderground years before I heard of AmWx.

What does any of that have to do with his poor use of statistics here? In order to find the expected value of numbers in a neutral year, you should either throw out the outlier or take the median. A straight arithmetic mean is not robust to outliers and certainly not with a sample size of 5.

[phlwx]

FWIW, taking out the high/low outliers in each data set gives you a mean (not a sample size that one can take to the bank since it's just three years in each bucket) of:

Nina: 14.7, 8, 2.7
Nada: 15.7, 8, 4
Nino: 10.3, 4, 2

'05 really skews the data big time...

[Eyewall2005]

From CPC's weekly update..

Climate Prediction Center 2/21/12 Weekly update

All the ENSO regions warmed sustancially with Nino 3.4 up to -0.6C,warmer than the -1.0C that last week's update brought. In fact,Nino 1-2 close to South America is now in positive territory (+0.9C) This shows how La Nina is fading fast and Neutral ENSO will come in short order. The big question is if is going to warm even more and more to jump towards El Nino in a hurry.

[wxmx]

There are usually less landfalls during a warm ENSO period, but FL is generally the less affected region (especially during weak warm phases), while in the GOM and the rest of the East coast there's a sharp decline in landfalling hurricanes.

[HurricaneJosh]

I've grown to not care too much about seasonal predictions.

1. They're often not terribly accurate.
2. Even active seasons can be craptastic in terms of quality systems.
3. Even active seasons can be craptastic in terms of quality landfalls.
4. Some of the hawtest landfalls ever have happened in craptastic seasons (i.e., 1977, 1992).
5. There's always the EPAC-- the perpetual insurance policy for crappy NATL seasons.

So this hand-wringing over the ENSO state in three months is a big whatevz to me.

[wxmx]

Ok everybody, pack up and leave.

[HurricaneJosh]

wxmx, on 22 February 2012 - 05:03 PM, said:

Ok everybody, pack up and leave.

Actually, one should derive the opposite conclusion from my post: even if the signals are negative, it's nothing to worry about.

[wxmx]

HurricaneJosh, on 22 February 2012 - 05:24 PM, said:

Actually, one should derive the opposite conclusion from my post: even if the signals are negative, it's nothing to worry about.

That was not the conclusion. Conclusion was, you have talked, discussions about Seasonal forecasts/ENSO are over.

[Riptide]

wxmx, on 22 February 2012 - 07:03 PM, said:

That was not the conclusion. Conclusion was, you have talked, discussions about Seasonal forecasts/ENSO are over.

There was no conclusion, only an open-ended opinion. Whatevz city.

[HurricaneJosh]

wxmx, on 22 February 2012 - 07:03 PM, said:

That was not the conclusion. Conclusion was, you have talked, discussions about Seasonal forecasts/ENSO are over.

I said it's a big whatevz to me. I didn't presume to speak for others.

Riptide, on 22 February 2012 - 07:29 PM, said:

There was no conclusion, only an open-ended opinion. Whatevz city.

Thank you.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

HurricaneJosh, on 22 February 2012 - 04:35 PM, said:

I've grown to not care too much about seasonal predictions.

1. They're often not terribly accurate.
2. Even active seasons can be craptastic in terms of quality systems.
3. Even active seasons can be craptastic in terms of quality landfalls.
4. Some of the hawtest landfalls ever have happened in craptastic seasons (i.e., 1977, 1992).
5. There's always the EPAC-- the perpetual insurance policy for crappy NATL seasons.

So this hand-wringing over the ENSO state in three months is a big whatevz to me.

k.

[That Hurricane Guy]

We are currently on the longest streak on record without a US landfalling Major.

Look for that to change this year.

[HurricaneJosh]

That Hurricane Guy, on 23 February 2012 - 09:14 PM, said:

We are currently on the longest streak on record without a US landfalling Major.

Look for that to change this year.

It's actually not the longest on record. As per official NHC records, the 1860s saw an even longer period: 1861-1868.

Even so, it sure feels like the longest!

[shaggy]

I'm just gonna use the tornado data that I messed around with last year to determine MY chances of a LF hurricane next season.

[That Hurricane Guy]

Haha going WAY back I see

It does feel like the longest . All I ask for this year is one good one. I am ready to go pretty much anywhere...

[toad strangler]

HurricaneJosh, on 23 February 2012 - 09:19 PM, said:

It's actually not the longest on record. As per official NHC records, the 1860s saw an even longer period: 1861-1868.

Even so, it sure feels like the longest!

This tidbit interested me greatly during previous discussion last season. A few chuckles I had knowing that the our US Civil War was able to proceed unimpeded from the tropics.

[toad strangler]

HurricaneJosh, on 22 February 2012 - 04:35 PM, said:

I've grown to not care too much about seasonal predictions.

1. They're often not terribly accurate.
2. Even active seasons can be craptastic in terms of quality systems.
3. Even active seasons can be craptastic in terms of quality landfalls.
4. Some of the hawtest landfalls ever have happened in craptastic seasons (i.e., 1977, 1992).
5. There's always the EPAC-- the perpetual insurance policy for crappy NATL seasons.

So this hand-wringing over the ENSO state in three months is a big whatevz to me.

1. Absolutely
2. Absolutely
3. Absolutely
4. Absolutely
5. LOL

[HurricaneJosh]

toad strangler, on 27 February 2012 - 09:03 PM, said:

This tidbit interested me greatly during previous discussion last season. A few chuckles I had knowing that the our US Civil War was able to proceed unimpeded from the tropics.

toad strangler, on 27 February 2012 - 09:05 PM, said:

1. Absolutely
2. Absolutely
3. Absolutely
4. Absolutely
5. LOL

[HurricaneJosh]

The off season is officially half over. We're gettin' there.

[Riptide]

HurricaneJosh, on 1 March 2012 - 01:24 AM, said:

The off season is officially half over. We're gettin' there.

[HurricaneJosh]

Hawt.

[Riptide]

HurricaneJosh, on 1 March 2012 - 12:05 PM, said:

Hawt.

Hurricane Wilma!

[icebreaker5221]

I won't be in FL Jun-Aug this year, so expect above average chances of an early season hurricane landfall in S. FL.

[HurricaneJosh]

Riptide, on 1 March 2012 - 12:25 PM, said:

Hurricane Wilma!

Believe it or not, I recognized it by its structure-- the system was large but the core was small and perfect, and the eye was tiny. It had a distinct look at peak intensity. Mega-hawt.

[HurricaneJosh]

icebreaker5221, on 1 March 2012 - 01:26 PM, said:

I won't be in FL Jun-Aug this year, so expect above average chances of an early season hurricane landfall in S. FL.

It's very kind of you to vacate like that and allow us greater opportunity for good landfalls.

[Juliancolton]

HurricaneJosh, on 1 March 2012 - 02:32 PM, said:

Believe it or not, I recognized it by its structure-- the system was large but the core was small and perfect, and the eye was tiny. It had a distinct look at peak intensity. Mega-hawt.

Some of my friends and I used to play a game where we would find a random satellite picture of a storm anywhere in the world (like from GIBBS), crop out the timestamp and lat/long lines, and everybody else tries to guess which storm it was based on its structure and sometimes the land areas it's near.

I feel like that would be fun to do here. New thread in the making?

[Ed Lizard]

More Cat 4s!