passmaster16 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 As far as your question about sampling data etc....that's a met question. I thought i read in another thread a couple days ago that it wouldn't all be on shore fully sampled until mon 00z or something....but again i don't know. State College PA NWS just updated their dicussion and I believe it answers my question AS THE MAIN PLAYERS LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF SAID STORM ARE BETTER INITIALIZED OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOULD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND FOCUS. They went on to say the following: THE EVENTUAL SOLUTIONS WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT UPON HOW STRONGLY UPPER LEVEL WAVES DIG THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY... AND THE INTENSITY OF GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN CONVECTION PUNCHING UP AN OFFSHORE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. MODELS ARE NOTORIOUSLY POOR IN HANDLING THE STRENGTH OF SUCH WAVES AS THEY RIDE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGES...AND WITH A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN I DO EXPECT A GENERAL WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK OF DETERMINISTIC AND GEFS MEAN MSL SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY INTRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES FOR PARTS OF MY AREA...NAMELY THE SOUTHEAST...AND WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED ONCE A MORE CONFIDENT SOLUTION IS IN HAND. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 spreading it a bit nw at 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 yeah SREFS have shifted into ohio now with measurable.....appears to be a theme developing need that conflunece over my head to lessen up here to allow it come further north before scooting east. of course we've been waiting for that to happen for 2+ years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 lol that darn bus is hanging on for dear life..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 yeah SREFS have shifted into ohio now with measurable.....appears to be a theme developing need that conflunece over my head to lessen up here to allow it come further north before scooting east. of course we've been waiting for that to happen for 2+ years now. wonder if this set up is a good candidate for a double barrel low or at least a stronger reflection west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 lol that darn bus is hanging on for dear life..... just enough to keep us watching lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 spreading it a bit nw at 15z There is now a few euro ensemble members showing a true spine runner up to say VA at which point they are more on the east side of the apps. Also the .25 line has been brought back to your backyard. The .50 line runs along the OH/WV line and clips the southern most county in OH and covers a good portion of SE.KY back into all of TN except the far nw. Further north it goes to near Pittsburgh on up to Ithaca, NY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 There is now a few euro ensemble members showing a true spine runner up to say VA at which point they are more on the east side of the apps. Also the .25 line has been brought back to your backyard. The .50 line runs along the OH/WV line and clips the southern most county in OH and covers a good portion of SE.KY back into all of TN except the far nw. Further north it goes to near Pittsburgh on up to Ithaca, NY! Sounds a lot better than the op. It barely clips ohio with the .10 line. Hope this is a trend and it rides all the way up the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Sounds a lot better than the op. It barely clips ohio with the .10 line. Hope this is a trend and it rides all the way up the apps. What? The 0.10" line runs from about Cleveland down to just east of Cincinnati. The 0.25"+ area is into SE. Ohio and the 0.50" line runs along the OH/WV border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Sounds a lot better than the op. It barely clips ohio with the .10 line. Hope this is a trend and it rides all the way up the apps. So..another run keeps our interest!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Sounds a lot better than the op. It barely clips ohio with the .10 line. Hope this is a trend and it rides all the way up the apps. What would cause it not to ride up the apps in the first place? Wasn't that the Euro's original track a few days ago before all the models started to push it east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 What would cause it not to ride up the apps in the first place? Wasn't that the Euro's original track a few days ago before all the models started to push it east? What would cause that is this kicker of sorts the models have been a little back and forth with coming down out of Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 What would cause that is this kicker of sorts the models have been a little back and forth with coming down out of Canada. Thanks,wouldn't the power of this storm would be able to break through that energy? It seems like the models have wanted to start by bringing it up the apps until it starts to move east. I suppose exact timing of all these pieces moving into place will be a factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Not liking the nam... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Not liking the nam... looks pretty progressive...not gonna close off maybe yet another shift...angry's correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 do the 6z and 18z ncep models ingest new data or do they work off the previous samples? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Much like yesterday, the 18z NAM is worthless. Upper levels disorganized, to slow in closing off(though the models hadn't caught on to that yet) and pretty much needs to stop trying. Just total garbage...looks like another different solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Just total garbage...looks like another different solution. luckily it is the 18z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Just total garbage...looks like another different solution. the trough just kinda peters out... what's weird is i've noticed the nam seems to go in the opposite direction as the sref. For instance yesterday when the nam was going crazy nw...the sref mean was more east. Today, the 15z come out and appear to be stronger with the trough and further nw and the nam takes a progressive dump...lol edit...that must mean there are some pretty far nw amped members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 My god, the nam is total garbage...these models should not have wild shifts like this from run to run. Nam doesn't even have a low pressure center....what junk. Ncep should be embarrassed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 do the 6z and 18z ncep models ingest new data or do they work off the previous samples? I believe they work of previous data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Look at the temps on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I believe they work of previous data Then how on earth does it come up with such a different solution??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Look at the temps on the NAM if i'm not getting snow....that's fine, it'll feel like a heat wave after this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 less then 3 days out and nam totally loses the 'snowstorm' for everyone...lol. and you wonder why i haven't un-handcuffed bertha? Hell at this rate the nam will pull a ggem at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 the NAM soltution is not totally out of the question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 the NAM soltution is not totally out of the question Of course...a track up the spine of the apps isn't either...however, I would think the models might have a better idea at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 the NAM soltution is not totally out of the question absolutely... but neither is the ggem or the euro. But yea, this could just as easily blow east. Just seems weird that it's pushed back in time AND is more progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 If this storm misses all us I hope the nam is right... I don't want those whiners in dc to see anything this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 lol at the MA'ers...they keep going from rain to whiff. at least all we have to worry about is wiff lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.