2010/2011 Tornado outbreaks

[janetjanet998]

TOIN= Tornado Outbreak Index Number developed by TornadoTony

This is not a pure "numbers" ranking (ie number of tornadoes, number of EFX's etc) but a combo of that and tornadoes hitting popuated area.

For example, A large outbreak in the open plains will have a disadvantage becuase of the lack of popuation and damage while a small outbreak in a metro area will have a advantage

first some copy and paste from this thread at eastern to get the historic info to compare

http://www.easternus...s-of-2000-2009/

(Tornado Outbreak Index Number)

(Fatalities)*2

(EF2 tornadoes)*2

(EF3 tornadoes)*10

(EF4 tornadoes)*20

(EF5 tornadoes)*30

(Total tornadoes)*1

($10,000,000 damage)*2 (2007 dollars)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

42 outbreaks listed here ranked..including 22 from the past 2 decades

i used Tonys formula but each fatality before 1960 is worth 1/2 point and from 1960-1979 1 point, this will have be be smooth to be really accurate though insead of cut off

also I used a 20% reduction in pre 1990 F3/4 points

*** means very damaging older tornado outbreak but damage is missing..I used 250M in todays dollars for now

also the dollar amount damage some is in 2007 dollars some in 2009 dollars....

if you can think of anyother oubreaks let us know

This isn't perfect but I was curious to see how the TOIN with the fatality reduction and the 20% reduction would match up with more recent outbreaks we can relate too

I think it does a good job

superoutbreak

2238

Palmsunday

978

Flint/Wor

1031.5

Tri state

804.5

May 31st 1985

731

5/3-5/4/1999

705.12

11/21-11/23/1992

529

Carolinas 1984

498.2

feb 5th-6th 2008

483.84

may 4th-5th 2003

462.5

1952 MAR**

461.7

1932 deep south**

395

4/26/1991

353

5/1/1968

350

1967 N IL

340

April 3rd 1956**

335

1/21-1/22/1999

327.12

6/2/1990

320

Red river 1979

317

3/13/1990

314

Nov 10-11th 2002

298.72

may 29-30 2004

294

1936 Tupelo

293

Feb 28th-Mar 2nd

285.4

6/16/1992

275.8

may 10-11th 2008

268.56

apr 10-11th 2009

265.92

3/1-3/2/1997

260.8

4/15-4/16/1998

259.54

Mar 12-13th 2006

250.48

3/27/1994

247.4

Apr 2nd 2006

235.38

Dallas 1957

233.9

Nov 23-25th 2001

232.98

SD 2003

205.7

GI Night of the twisters

200.4

November 1989

168.8

Greensburg outbreak

168.76

Plainfield IL

147

5/5 2007

144.16

Fargo 1957

114.7

8-18-05 WI

48.6

[janetjanet998]

Now 2010 outbreaks.................

April 22–25, 2010 (note this may have to be divided up into at 2 seperate outbreaks only have data for the multi day event)

Tornadoes 88 88points

EF2 9 18 points

EF3 4 40 points

EF4 2 40 points

Fatalities 10 20 points

Damage 403M 80.6 points

April 22-25 TOIN 286.6

May 10–13, 2010 (note this may have to be divided up into at 2 seperate outbreaks only have data for the multi day event)

http://en.wikipedia....ornado_outbreak

Tornadoes 91 91points

EF2 13 26 points

EF3 4 40 points

EF4 2 40 points

Fatalities 3 6 points

Damage 564M 112.8 points

March 10-13 TOIN 315.8

June 5–6, 2010

http://en.wikipedia....ornado_outbreak

Tornadoes 53 53 points

EF2 11 22 points

EF3 3 30 points

EF4 1 20 points

Fatalities 8 16 points

Damage 252M 50.4 points

JUNE 5-6 TOIN 191.4

June 16-17, 2010 (NO Damage info yet)

http://en.wikipedia....ornado_outbreak

Tornadoes 82 82 points

EF2 9 18points

EF3 4 40 points

EF4 4 80 points

Fatalities 3 6 points

Damage 3.2 6 points

JUNE 16-17 TOIN 232

update damage here was only 3.2 million not 95m

[Ellinwood]

Good stuff. Were you planning on doing the Oct 25-26 outbreak? It's kind of recent, so I would imagine the numbers might not be "finalized" just yet.

[janetjanet998]

Good stuff. Were you planning on doing the Oct 25-26 outbreak? It's kind of recent, so I would imagine the numbers might not be "finalized" just yet.

Yes but the damage data isn't there yet...and not that many strong tornadoes though

Oct 25-26

Tornadoes 67 67 points

EF2 8 16 points

Damage missing will use 25 million for now 5 points

Oct 25-26 TOIN 88

also to be fair, the April and May outbreaks will have to be broken up but not sure where to make the cutoff and don't have info for each seperate timme frame..

For example, Tony seperated the Greensburg Kansas outbreak from the outbreak the day before(?or after)

[Ellinwood]

Yes but the damage data isn't there yet...and not that many strong tornadoes though

Oct 25-26

Tornadoes 67 67 points

EF2 8 16 points

Damage missing will use 25 million for now 5 points

Oct 25-26 TOIN 88

Yeah I figured it may have also been skipped due to the lack of strong tornadoes. I just didn't want to ignore a rare October High Risk event! Thanks for taking the time!

[wxsmwhrms]

I may have missed it, but do you have the February 1971 outbreak on there? I get 312 using your formula, including using $250M for a damage figure since I couldn't find one readily.

[janetjanet998]

I may have missed it, but do you have the February 1971 outbreak on there? I get 312 using your formula, including using $250M for a damage figure since I couldn't find one readily.

Intense deadly outbreak but low number of tornadoes hurt the index....

http://en.wikipedia....ornado_outbreak

Tornadoes 19 19 points

F2 7 14 points

F3 3 30 points (24 reduction)

F4 2 40 points (32 reduction)

F5 1 30 points

fatalities 123 123 points (1 point each)

damage 250 million 50 points

TOIN 292 24th all time

some comparable outbreaks

Red river 1979

317

3/13/1990

314

Nov 10-11th 2002

298.72

may 29-30 2004

294

1936 Tupelo

293

Feb 28th-Mar 2nd 2007

285.4

6/16/1992

275.8

may 10-11th 2008

268.56

[janetjanet998]

good place to look up damage info...not sure what year inflation wise they are based on..can't do 12-31 yet because that goes into 2011

http://www.spc.noaa....ne/sp3/plot.php

[Ed Lizard]

Intense deadly outbreak but low number of tornadoes hurt the index....

Jarrell was actually more than a single tornado, although they all cycled from the same cell Southwestward propagating cell*. (Forgive the IMBYism). 27 dead with the F-5, and the F-5 was joined by F-4s and F-3s that cycled out of the same cell. 2 more dead closer to Austin.

(I have read discussions as to whether new cells continuously formed on the SW flank and then became dominant, but in appearance it was a continuous cell)

My favorite write up with embedded satellite and radar loops. Always liked that, about 7000 J/Kg SBCAPE and less than 50 m^2/s^2 0-1 and 0-3km helicity

http://homepages.vvm.com/~curtis/Jarrell/Jarrell.htm

[janetjanet998]

Jarrell was actually more than a single tornado, although they all cycled from the same cell Southwestward propagating cell*. (Forgive the IMBYism). 27 dead with the F-5, and the F-5 was joined by F-4s and F-3s that cycled out of the same cell. 2 more dead closer to Austin.

(I have read discussions as to whether new cells continuously formed on the SW flank and then became dominant, but in appearance it was a continuous cell)

My favorite write up with embedded satellite and radar loops. Always liked that, about 7000 J/Kg SBCAPE and less than 50 m^2/s^2 0-1 and 0-3km helicity

http://homepages.vvm...ell/Jarrell.htm

Jarrell outbreak TOIN about 200

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Central_Texas_tornado_outbreak

[Master of Disaster]

Jarrell was actually more than a single tornado, although they all cycled from the same cell Southwestward propagating cell*. (Forgive the IMBYism). 27 dead with the F-5, and the F-5 was joined by F-4s and F-3s that cycled out of the same cell. 2 more dead closer to Austin.

(I have read discussions as to whether new cells continuously formed on the SW flank and then became dominant, but in appearance it was a continuous cell)

My favorite write up with embedded satellite and radar loops. Always liked that, about 7000 J/Kg SBCAPE and less than 50 m^2/s^2 0-1 and 0-3km helicity

http://homepages.vvm...ell/Jarrell.htm

That tornado was a very rare beast. The only one I know of that traveled SW. An F5 in an environment that by most accounts, shouldnt have produced much of anything, much less an F5. It still places me in a state of awe at a tornado so strong, it strips asphalt off the road.

[Fred Gossage]

Yes but the damage data isn't there yet...and not that many strong tornadoes though

Oct 25-26

Tornadoes 67 67 points

EF2 8 16 points

Damage missing will use 25 million for now 5 points

Oct 25-26 TOIN 88

also to be fair, the April and May outbreaks will have to be broken up but not sure where to make the cutoff and don't have info for each seperate timme frame..

For example, Tony seperated the Greensburg Kansas outbreak from the outbreak the day before(?or after)

In most publications and research, a break in confirmed tornado activity of at least 6 consecutive hours.... usually is the break for outbreak events, even if they are created by the same exact synoptic storm system.

[janetjanet998]

looks like Dr Forbes has his own index now..complete with the F2-F4 reduction for older tornadoes and less fatality "points" like we did

http://www.weather.c...reak_2011-10-26

some interesting tid bits

Conversely, there have been big changes to our method of rating tornado intensity since 1974 that might be reducing the number of tornadoes being classified as strong (EF2 and EF3) and violent (EF4 and EF5). The original Fujita (F) Scale had just been developed in 1971, and was used in rating those tornadoes. Many of the ratings were assigned to tornadoes by its inventor, Dr. Fujita. The enhanced Fujita (EF) Scale is now in use, and it is very difficult to assign an EF5 rating even when a home is obliterated. Engineers have pointed out structural weaknesses in home (and other structure) construction for the National Weather Service to take into consideration. Some tornadoes previously rated F5 and F4 might now be rated EF4 and EF3. The Impact Index for 2011 might have gone up if I adjusted for this.

Statistics show that in the years surrounding the 1974 Superoutbreak, tornadoes rated F2 and stronger and F4 and stronger were 1.72 and 1.53 times more common, respectively, than in the last 20 years. If these were used as adjustment factors, the 2011 outbreak might have had 132 tornadoes rated EF2 or stronger and 23 tornadoes rated EF4 and stronger by 1974 standards, making the 2011 outbreak very similar to 1974 in strong and violent tornado counts.

[janetjanet998]

In most publications and research, a break in confirmed tornado activity of at least 6 consecutive hours.... usually is the break for outbreak events, even if they are created by the same exact synoptic storm system.

6.02 hours was the shortest gap from April 25-28

[janetjanet998]

http://en.wikipedia....ornado_outbreak

april 25-28th 2011

tornadoes 336 336 points

Ef2 50 100 point

Ef3 50 500 points

Ef4 11 220 points

Ef5 4 120 points

fatalities 322 644 points

damages 11 billion (2011) 10.07B 2007USD 2000 points

3920 points

edit

[andyhb]

http://en.wikipedia....ornado_outbreak

april 25-28th 2011

tornadoes 336 336 points

Ef2 50 100 point

Ef3 50 500 points

Ef4 11 220 points

Ef5 4 120 points

fatalities 322 644 points

damages 11 billion (2011) 10.07B 2007USD 2000 points

4010 points

Although not surprising, holy smokes...Like several have said, the magnitude if that outbreak had extended north into the GL/OV would be nearly incomprehensible...

That tornado was a very rare beast. The only one I know of that traveled SW. An F5 in an environment that by most accounts, shouldnt have produced much of anything, much less an F5. It still places me in a state of awe at a tornado so strong, it strips asphalt off the road.

CAPE was ridiculously high (LI's around -11 to -13 in the area), so although shear was modest, storms evolving in that environment still had bad written all over them.

[thewxmann]

That tornado was a very rare beast. The only one I know of that traveled SW. An F5 in an environment that by most accounts, shouldnt have produced much of anything, much less an F5. It still places me in a state of awe at a tornado so strong, it strips asphalt off the road.

There was a MDT risk that day and CAPEs were in excess of 6000/7000 J/kg.

[Hoosier]

http://en.wikipedia....ornado_outbreak

april 25-28th 2011

tornadoes 336 336 points

Ef2 50 100 point

Ef3 50 500 points

Ef4 11 220 points

Ef5 4 120 points

fatalities 322 644 points

damages 11 billion (2011) 10.07B 2007USD 2000 points

3920 points

edit

I wonder if the single day toin surpasses 4/3/74. Could you just do April 27? (maybe 12z-12z like an SPC day)