Rainshadow Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 I didn't want to clutter the long range thread further, going to try to keep tabs and see how this verifies All for PHL, all fcst 1000-500mb thicknesses. I'm going to keep the first time below 530 thickness is fcst, but then include the lowest fcst thickness and the first time thickness fcst rises above 539. 12th/00z.....7 pm 27th...rest n/a 12th/12z.....7 am 25th....rest n/a 13th/00z.....7 am 24th....rest n/a 13th/12z.....7 pm 24th........520....7 am 29th end of run 14th/00z.....7 pm 27th.......520....7 am 28th...none thru end of run 14th/12z.....7 am 26th.......513....7 pm 27th...7 pm 29th 15th/00z.....7 am 27th.......516....7 am 28th...none thru end of run 15th/12z.....7 am 27th.......510....7 am 29th...none thru end of run (12z 12/1) 16th/00z.....7 pm 26th......513 7 am 28th....none thru end of run (00z 12/2) 16th/12z.....7 pm 26th......518 7 am 30th....none thru end of run (12z 12/2) 17th/00z.....7 pm 26th......509 7 am 30th....none thru end of run (00z 12/3) 17th/12z.....7 pm 26th......510 7 pm 27th....none thru end of run (12z 12/3) 18th/00z.....7 am 26th.......518 7 am 1st....none thru end of run (00z 12/4) 18th/12z.....7 am 26th ......516 7 pm 28th....7 pm 3rd 19th/00z.....10 pm 25th....514 7 pm 27th....none thru end of run (00z 12/5) 19th/12z.....10 am 26th....512 7 am 27th....7 am 2nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 At a certain point climatology takes over and realizing the GFS is overexaggerating this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 At a certain point climatology takes over and realizing the GFS is overexaggerating this. "This" seems to happen every year starting in late october/early november And by this I mean massive cold shots in GFS la-la land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Wait-so the GFS is too cold? I don't get it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Wait-so the GFS is too cold? I don't get it..... If you look at your 0z GFS and your 0z Euro at 240 there is a disagreement of course. GFS keeps the cold air locked iin in the east . The euro is more progressive with our cold air at 240 - develops a sizable storm in the lower plains - mild air in front - cold diving in the back of it. I would support the GFS outcome in this pattern - the GFS has handled the pattern better then the Euro at about 10 days this entire week - and is not breaking down the -NAO too fast ..................... in fact the GFS past 10 days keeps the cold air locked into the east - for how long ? that is the question.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 If you look at your 0z GFS and your 0z Euro at 240 there is a disagreement of course. GFS keeps the cold air locked iin in the east . The euro is more progressive with our cold air at 240 - develops a sizable storm in the lower plains - mild air in front - cold diving in the back of it. I would support the GFS outcome in this pattern - the GFS has handled the pattern better then the Euro at about 10 days this entire week - and is not breaking down the -NAO too fast ..................... in fact the GFS past 10 days keeps the cold air locked into the east - for how long ? that is the question.... The euro ensemble mean does not like the euro adding to the confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 20, 2010 Author Share Posted November 20, 2010 The euro ensemble mean does not like the euro adding to the confusion. Just a quick eyeballing of the 240hr fcst time period, it does look as though both model ensemble means are much closer than the op model runs. MY WAG is that the op euro will capitulate, but the gfs is overdoing the depth and duration. I kind of use this as the decider: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 yea this is fascinating, the 0z euro was a disaster and looks nothing like the 0z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Just a quick eyeballing of the 240hr fcst time period, it does look as though both model ensemble means are much closer than the op model runs. MY WAG is that the op euro will capitulate, but the gfs is overdoing the depth and duration. I kind of use this as the decider: tony, what is this map trying to show? Is this saying that the model are going to warm across canada, and to cold in the southeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 12z GFS keeps the -NAO past day 10 and a nice storm 1st week of Dec. riding up the Tenn Valley and then being forced to the east because of the block and redeveloping off the VA coast and then up and off the coast - even if this did happen would have to thread the needle because 850's are borderline and water temps are still way to warm to support all snow along I - 95............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 12z GFS keeps the -NAO past day 10 and a nice storm 1st week of Dec. riding up the Tenn Valley and then being forced to the east because of the block and redeveloping off the VA coast and then up and off the coast - even if this did happen would have to thread the needle because 850's are borderline and water temps are still way to warm to support all snow along I - 95............... Well, you make good points. Though, you would see an offshore wind if the low center is E of your location. Nonetheless, the low is a tad close to the coast on this run which wouldn't spare anyone east of I-95 with ENE-E wind and encroaching 850mb low. Looks like a changeover for all locations after the low center moves away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 12z GFS keeps the -NAO past day 10 and a nice storm 1st week of Dec. riding up the Tenn Valley and then being forced to the east because of the block and redeveloping off the VA coast and then up and off the coast - even if this did happen would have to thread the needle because 850's are borderline and water temps are still way to warm to support all snow along I - 95............... Why would water temps matter if the wind is not blowing off the ocean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Why would water temps matter if the wind is not blowing off the ocean? Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Why would water temps matter if the wind is not blowing off the ocean? Thats why I said - this time of the year you have to "thread the needle ". If its too close to the coast you get a more onshore flow and NYC Metro is more wet then white with water temps in the 40' s- near 50 . Need the perfect track in early December to keep the winds North - Northeast and not off the too warm water.......Agreed ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 20, 2010 Author Share Posted November 20, 2010 tony, what is this map trying to show? Is this saying that the model are going to warm across canada, and to cold in the southeast? Tom, These are actual chances for above normal, near normal and below normal temperatures on average for the one week period. For us its saying the most likely outcome is normal temperatures, which given its solution to the evolution would say a quick shot. Speaking of capitulation, now the euro ensemble members and the op gfs went the op euro's way at day10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Way too much is always made about water temps...unless you are right on the coast....if memory serves I believe 5 of the last December 5th's have had measurable snow. There is a little more margin for error for NYC, Long Island and coastal southern New England than say the central and southern NJ coast or the Delmarva Penninsula...Upton / OKX on L.I. has measured 106.8" of snow in the last 10 Decembers...an average of 10.68" per month. http://www.bnl.gov/w...hlySnowfall.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Way too much is always made about water temps...unless you are right on the coast....if memory serves I believe 5 of the last December 5th's have had measurable snow. Borderline temperatures w/ south east winds can play a role by the coastal areas along the south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Tom, These are actual chances for above normal, near normal and below normal temperatures on average for the one week period. For us its saying the most likely outcome is normal temperatures, which given its solution to the evolution would say a quick shot. Speaking of capitulation, now the euro ensemble members and the op gfs went the op euro's way at day10. tony, i dont like this news lol. I think i would rather carry my lunch to work in your cowboys lunch bag than see and hear what your saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 20, 2010 Author Share Posted November 20, 2010 tony, i dont like this news lol. I think i would rather carry my lunch to work in your cowboys lunch bag than see and hear what your saying. The old one is probably buried under 20 feet of garbage in Florence at this point. The new one looks much better, but is smaller, I think I'm getting a casual hint to eat less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 20, 2010 Author Share Posted November 20, 2010 12th/00z.....7 pm 27th...rest n/a 12th/12z.....7 am 25th....rest n/a 13th/00z.....7 am 24th....rest n/a 13th/12z.....7 pm 24th........520....7 am 29th end of run 14th/00z.....7 pm 27th.......520....7 am 28th...none thru end of run 14th/12z.....7 am 26th.......513....7 pm 27th...7 pm 29th 15th/00z.....7 am 27th.......516....7 am 28th...none thru end of run 15th/12z.....7 am 27th.......510....7 am 29th...none thru end of run (12z 12/1) 16th/00z.....7 pm 26th......513 7 am 28th....none thru end of run (00z 12/2) 16th/12z.....7 pm 26th......518 7 am 30th....none thru end of run (12z 12/2) 17th/00z.....7 pm 26th......509 7 am 30th....none thru end of run (00z 12/3) 17th/12z.....7 pm 26th......510 7 pm 27th....none thru end of run (12z 12/3) 18th/00z.....7 am 26th.......518 7 am 1st....none thru end of run (00z 12/4) 18th/12z.....7 am 26th ......516 7 pm 28th....7 pm 3rd 19th/00z.....10 pm 25th....514 7 pm 27th....none thru end of run (00z 12/5) 19th/12z.....10 am 26th....512 7 am 27th....7 am 2nd 20th/00z.....1 am 26th.....519 7 am 26th....7 am 5th 20th/12z.....4 am 26th.....525 7 am 26th....7 pm 27th, 12" of snow first 5 days in Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 12th/00z.....7 pm 27th...rest n/a 12th/12z.....7 am 25th....rest n/a 13th/00z.....7 am 24th....rest n/a 13th/12z.....7 pm 24th........520....7 am 29th end of run 14th/00z.....7 pm 27th.......520....7 am 28th...none thru end of run 14th/12z.....7 am 26th.......513....7 pm 27th...7 pm 29th 15th/00z.....7 am 27th.......516....7 am 28th...none thru end of run 15th/12z.....7 am 27th.......510....7 am 29th...none thru end of run (12z 12/1) 16th/00z.....7 pm 26th......513 7 am 28th....none thru end of run (00z 12/2) 16th/12z.....7 pm 26th......518 7 am 30th....none thru end of run (12z 12/2) 17th/00z.....7 pm 26th......509 7 am 30th....none thru end of run (00z 12/3) 17th/12z.....7 pm 26th......510 7 pm 27th....none thru end of run (12z 12/3) 18th/00z.....7 am 26th.......518 7 am 1st....none thru end of run (00z 12/4) 18th/12z.....7 am 26th ......516 7 pm 28th....7 pm 3rd 19th/00z.....10 pm 25th....514 7 pm 27th....none thru end of run (00z 12/5) 19th/12z.....10 am 26th....512 7 am 27th....7 am 2nd 20th/00z.....1 am 26th.....519 7 am 26th....7 am 5th 20th/12z.....4 am 26th.....525 7 am 26th....7 pm 27th, 12" of snow first 5 days in Dec. this is going to be a tease all yr round it seems like lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 20, 2010 Author Share Posted November 20, 2010 this is going to be a tease all yr round it seems like lol I wonder if someone actually kept a running count at how much snow the GFS forecasts in any given winter what the ratio would be for the forecast total vs the actual total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 I wonder if someone actually kept a running count at how much snow the GFS forecasts in any given winter what the ratio would be for the forecast total vs the actual total. Every run? Probably around 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 Every run? Probably around 10:1 last yr may of been a little closer lol. Seemed like everytime it showed snow we got it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 20, 2010 Share Posted November 20, 2010 last yr may of been a little closer lol. Seemed like everytime it showed snow we got it We can only hope that will happen again this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 22, 2010 Author Share Posted November 22, 2010 12th/00z.....7 pm 27th...rest n/a 12th/12z.....7 am 25th....rest n/a 13th/00z.....7 am 24th....rest n/a 13th/12z.....7 pm 24th........520....7 am 29th end of run 14th/00z.....7 pm 27th.......520....7 am 28th...none thru end of run 14th/12z.....7 am 26th.......513....7 pm 27th...7 pm 29th 15th/00z.....7 am 27th.......516....7 am 28th...none thru end of run 15th/12z.....7 am 27th.......510....7 am 29th...none thru end of run (12z 12/1) 16th/00z.....7 pm 26th......513 7 am 28th....none thru end of run (00z 12/2) 16th/12z.....7 pm 26th......518 7 am 30th....none thru end of run (12z 12/2) 17th/00z.....7 pm 26th......509 7 am 30th....none thru end of run (00z 12/3) 17th/12z.....7 pm 26th......510 7 pm 27th....none thru end of run (12z 12/3) 18th/00z.....7 am 26th.......518 7 am 1st....none thru end of run (00z 12/4) 18th/12z.....7 am 26th ......516 7 pm 28th....7 pm 3rd 19th/00z.....10 pm 25th......514 7 pm 27th....none thru end of run (00z 12/5) 19th/12z.....10 am 26th......512 7 am 27th....7 am 2nd 20th/00z.....1 am 26th........519 7 am 26th......7 am 5th 20th/12z.....4 am 26th.......525 7 am 26th....7 pm 27th, 12" of snow first 5 days in Dec. 21st/00z.....4 pm 26th.........516 10 pm 26th.....7 pm 29th 21st/12z.....10 pm 26th.......528 10 am 27th.....1 pm 28th...quite cold the 3rd thru the end on the 7th 22nd/00z....none until December 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 okay this is a depressing thread Tony At the very least you could post your corresponding golf scores as they relate to the extended season? (along with those sad Wx stats) BTW....tried out my new X22's.....wow spin city! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 22, 2010 Author Share Posted November 22, 2010 okay this is a depressing thread Tony At the very least you could post your corresponding golf scores as they relate to the extended season? (along with those sad Wx stats) BTW....tried out my new X22's.....wow spin city! I didn't think it was going to turn out this bad. If anything it will give us an initial benchmark (it has to be within x amount of hours to be given credence) of when the gfs caught up with the pattern (when a change was expected). Off topic: As for golf, my wife and I had a great round (for us) at Pinelands, we both shot in the upper 80s and had about 13 pars between us, yesterday at Ramblewood we were back in the low 90s . My wife had a unique scoring chance until the last hole to shoot only multiples of 4 on the back nine (parring all of the par 4s), she had six 4s and two 8s going to the last hole which she bogeyed for a 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 If the consistent cold truly cancels out the gfs was a frickin disaster in the details of the general pattern...had the euro not bit for a couple runs and went with the gfs' locked in phase it would have scored the coup since it was pretty much by itself. The trend this winter may be "just ten days away" again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 22, 2010 Author Share Posted November 22, 2010 If the consistent cold truly cancels out the gfs was a frickin disaster in the details of the general pattern...had the euro not bit for a couple runs and went with the gfs' locked in phase it would have scored the coup since it was pretty much by itself. The trend this winter may be "just ten days away" again. I'm not surprised that it truncated, kind of surprised its just disappearing. I'm wondering if the GFS had the MJO propagating vs going into the circle of death about a week ago. The -EPO was not sustainable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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