Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Light overrunning snows stop at hr. 111 with around 2-3 inches of snow in most places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 looks like a general 1-3 on the gfs, maybe 2-4 up by nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 There is a low emerging out of the gulf at 108 hours. Lets see if that low goes up the coast. RH sure looks better this run, and looks like higher heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Got a short wave starting to drop down from Canada at 132 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 RH sure looks better this run, and looks like higher heights. First low hits us with a light snowfall. The 2nd low goes right OTS. Doesn't come up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 First low hits us with a light snowfall. The 2nd low goes right OTS. Doesn't come up the coast. I don't know if I believe that straight OTS scenario. We'll see what the other models say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Interestingly, it does try to pop something off the SE Coast around 150-156 hrs, but it just does not happen. It seems there is loads more potential there next weekend, just need to work on the details. Let's wait on the Euro. First low hits us with a light snowfall. The 2nd low goes right OTS. Doesn't come up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 It looks like it leaves some energy behind like the Euro, but the GFS doesn't bring it up - yet, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 It looks like it leaves some energy behind like the Euro, but the GFS doesn't bring it up - yet, at least. it doesnt, the gfs is just basically a cold front coming through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 So far the OP ECMWF remains the obvious outlier of every other solution guidance has to offer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 So far the OP ECMWF remains the obvious outlier of every other solution guidance has to offer. We have seen this many times in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 it doesnt, the gfs is just basically a cold front coming through. So it's another low along the front. OK. I do like the consistency of the Euro, though. Remember the last time it was consistent. Lost the storm but turned out to be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Actually, I have seen that go both ways. We have seen this many times in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I think something interesting is about to happen in fantasy time ranges. At 192 hrs it is diving a strong piece of energy down from Canada and a surface reflection is starting to take shape in the Western Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 This is where its a good idea to step back and forget what the model shows but try and forecast what you think it will show in 24 hours...look at this 00Z GFS surface prog at 96 hours...if you asked 100 mets what they thought the 120 hour chart would look like, probably 70-80 would say a major East Coast storm...but guess what?! Nothing!...well not nothing but not much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Transferring to a very juicy low at 228 hrs off the southeast coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 At 252 hrs it has a juicy low off of NJ but with most of the precip off shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I have been telling my friends for days that I think there will be a significant snowstorm here on Friday. I stick with it. This is where its a good idea to step back and forget what the model shows but try and forecast what you think it will show in 24 hours...look at this 00Z GFS surface prog at 96 hours...if you asked 100 mets what they thought the 120 hour chart would look like, probably 70-80 would say a major East Coast storm...but guess what?! Nothing!...well not nothing but not much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 At 252 hrs it has a juicy low off of NJ but with most of the precip off shore. GFS has shown this potential for a few runs now. If next week's storm doesn't turn out, looks like the pattern will still be active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Yes, plenty of stuff to watch the next week or two. GFS has shown this potential for a few runs now. If next week's storm doesn't turn out, looks like the pattern will still be active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Analogs for the upper air over the Midwest at 120 hours from the 12Z GFS show the following dates and the below composite snow chart, there is certainly support just based on that alone for storm potential. 11/22/89 01/06/96 02/26/91 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 h5 charts looks likea certain analog year @ 200ish i dare not say.(to a degree) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 <br />Analogs for the upper air over the Midwest at 120 hours from the 12Z GFS show the following dates and the below composite snow chart, there is certainly support just based on that alone for storm potential.<br /><br />11/22/89<br />01/06/96<br />02/26/91<br /><br /><a href='http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/CENT/CENT_120/COOPmean15gfs212F120.png' class='bbc_url' title='External link' rel='nofollow external'><img src="http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/CENT/CENT_120/COOPmean15gfs212F120.png" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br />Nice. Sign me up for jan 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Analogs for the upper air over the Midwest at 120 hours from the 12Z GFS show the following dates and the below composite snow chart, there is certainly support just based on that alone for storm potential. 11/22/89 01/06/96 02/26/91 So you're saying anywhere between 0.1 and 30.7 inches for Philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 So you're saying anywhere between 0.1 and 30.7 inches for Philly? sounds like guarenteed snow to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 So you're saying anywhere between 0.1 and 30.7 inches for Philly? Prior to the 12/19/09 storm Tony said he told someone in his family anywhere from 0 -24 inches for Philly...I wouldn't go that big...I think this one is more likely to be a classic 4-8 inch type deal than a monster event...it could be a bigger deal for the northern coastal MA near DE or SNJ and SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Prior to the 12/19/09 storm Tony said he told someone in his family anywhere from 0 -24 inches for Philly...I wouldn't go that big...I think this one is more likely to be a classic 4-8 inch type deal than a monster event...it could be a bigger deal for the northern coastal MA near DE or SNJ and SNE In case it wasn't obvious, I didn't mean that post in anything but jest... I know 2/26 was a good storm in NYC, but recalled that it hardly did anything in Trenton (0.4"), so I pulled up the Philly numbers and saw they only had 0.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 gfs ens mean is a lot more agressive and wetter than the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GGEM looks better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 ggem looks solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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