StotaRattler Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Another thing to keep in mind is that the GFS does not handle CAD situations very well. Easterly winds will also struggle to warm temperatures aloft in your neck of the woods because areas to your east have abundant snowcover and temperatures Monday will be very cold. With the exception of Syracuse and points west, I think the vast majority of precipitation will be frozen instead of liquid. FWIW, the 18Z GFS looks a lot more like the ECMWF now on Tuesday. I'd actually be very pleased with scenario because the bulk falls as snow and/or sleet and then our dear friends in SNE get the more extended heavier qpf in the form of fzra and ra. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 The GFS actually never shows either of us getting above freezing at 2M which is pretty impressive when the GFS shows that. As to the 850 temps...primary doesn't give way soon enough to keep 850 0C line S/E of us altogether, but it would be warmer aloft had not the coastal existed. Another thing to keep in mind is that the GFS does not handle CAD situations very well. Easterly winds will also struggle to warm temperatures aloft in your neck of the woods because areas to your east have abundant snowcover and temperatures Monday will be very cold. With the exception of Syracuse and points west, I think the vast majority of precipitation will be frozen instead of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 NWS in Alb THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE AT THE ONSET WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLEIN P-TYPE FOR THIS STORM. WITH THE COASTAL LOW BEING DOMINATE IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO SCOUR THE COLD AIR OUT AT THE SURFACE. INITIALLY SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING SOUTHERN VERMONT...SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH A MIX AND/OR CHANGE OVER HOLDING OFF UNTIL EARLIER EVENING. A CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN RAIN IS ONLY EXPECTED TO OCCUR INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BIG QUESTION WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND THERE IS A LARGESPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS NO SINGLE P-TYPE SHOULD REACH WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT THE THREAT OF A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA RECEIVING A HALF OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION PARTICULARLY SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE A CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN RAIN DOES NOT OCCUR. ALSO CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD REACH HEAVY SNOW CRITERIA...7+ INCHES. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT STORM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.-- End Changed Discussion -- http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ALY&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StotaRattler Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Stota - looking gruesome around here for synoptic...i've about given up on anything but clipper systems and lake snow. Euro teasing for next weekend while GooFuS has a CFROPA for Bermuda. Given the trends the past few winters I think we need a 975 mb low passing over KBGM and KALB just to get any sort of decent precip shield into CNY. LOL...and the problem with that setup is a ton of warm air aloft and mixed precipitation. Folks from Geneva to Buffalo would love that situation. I like being in the crosshairs of the Euro, while the GFS punts the system wide right. Perfect setup for synoptic snow in CNY. I cringe when I see our area in the GFS bullseye on any model run outside of 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Gotta hope for the best, but so far this has been a New England winter in terms of synoptic. I managed moderate events from those two big Noreasters, but on the edge each time and much more literally from the Hudson River eastwards. They were ok, but it PO's you somewhat when you see people 30 miles east getting a foot more. LOL...and the problem with that setup is a ton of warm air aloft and mixed precipitation. Folks from Geneva to Buffalo would love that situation. I like being in the crosshairs of the Euro, while the GFS punts the system wide right. Perfect setup for synoptic snow in CNY. I cringe when I see our area in the GFS bullseye on any model run outside of 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 i have remained hesitant with this event for up here because the models have really been hitting the 'screw zone' caught between the systems disorganized mess, very hard for several days now. hopefully that can change going starting with toinght runs but the globals and hi-res models have been hammering the point home for some time. combined with sneaky warm layers, event has dud written all over it for a some portion of the region......now where that will be exactly, not easy to say at this time.... take a look at the 18z NAM/GFS for example you can see the expanse of dry area on both models. im not big on this event for eastern ontario at this time.....just a nuisance event for them being signalled for now. lets hope for some better trends at 00z......as Andy says, likely a situation that wont be resolved until tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StotaRattler Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 i have remained hesitant with this event for up here because the models have really been hitting the 'screw zone' caught between the systems disorganized mess, very hard for several days now. hopefully that can change going starting with toinght runs but the globals and hi-res models have been hammering the point home for some time. combined with sneaky warm layers, event has dud written all over it for a some portion of the region......now where that will be exactly, not easy to say at this time.... take a look at the 18z NAM/GFS for example you can see the expanse of dry area on both models. im not big on this event for eastern ontario at this time.....just a nuisance event for them being signalled for now. lets hope for some better trends at 00z......as Andy says, likely a situation that wont be resolved until tomorrow. I am in total agreement that this event is looking more and more like a flop. 0z is coming up shortly, so we shall see if there is any consensus, but I highly doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StotaRattler Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Latest Nam suggests that many of us don't mix over at all during the Tuesday timeframe. We shall see what our friend the GFS has to offer in about an hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The way I see it. You will have a snow mix...You will have some warm air trying to move in. But, the cold looks to hold on for the most part. I would say Through Wednesday that 1-3 inches looks to be a good bet. There will be cold pockets so some places will have more of a mix than others. definitely very reasonable forecast at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 definitely very reasonable forecast at this time I'm hoping for 2-4" at least. It's not looking too bad, as per EC tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 O, hello... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 OK..using SREF for QP and blending SREF with EC and NAM for LP track. Accumulation forecast below hinges upon both actual QPF (NAM too wet perhaps) and when mix or change to other p-types occurs. For sure a snowy start but after that most reas will at least mix if not change. Exception is from Saratoga east and north where I am thinking mostly snow will fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 OK..using SREF for QP and blending SREF with EC and NAM for LP track. Accumulation forecast below hinges upon both actual QPF (NAM too wet perhaps) and when mix or change to other p-types occurs. For sure a snowy start but after that most reas will at least mix if not change. Exception is from Saratoga east and north where I am thinking mostly snow will fall. Tough one Andy as the primary not all that strong to begin with will already be in a weakening stage when it starts to affect us. Really gonna be tough for you guys to figure out how far north that sneaky tongue of warmer air is able to come. Track of the coastal seems reasonably settled but the amount of moisture generated will probably not be resolved until tomorrow AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 If the 12z NAM's QPF is realized, it may get fun around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'm hoping for 2-4" at least. It's not looking too bad, as per EC tonight i think that would be the best case scenario we will be able to tell on radar tomorrow, look for the best precip to setup NW of ottawa and just kid of hang out there very slowly moving towards ottawa but never really getting there until it weakens many hours later......trapped between 2 storms. same deal here in montreal, except we will be keeping more of an eye on the southern storm....that has a bit better chance of getting some more juice up this way for 2+ inches, abut also a greater chance here of getting nothing out of this entirely. for ottawa, this is a case where along the river will have a better chance than south ottawa, and kanata has a better chance than orleans.....hopefully everyone if it setsup as modeled, it will be light precip on and off over the course of 2 days, so its unlikely to accmulate too much....but EC should be able to record something.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 In all probability it's overdone, but split the difference with the GFS and it is a decedent plowable event. RGEM is in that middle ground I think. I personally don't think any fzra from here to GFL...unless we are talking the chance of freezing drizzle after the main snow shield moves NE of us tomorrow evening. I think mostly snow, maybe a little sleet and around 4-6" generally from the CD north. VT more.... If the 12z NAM's QPF is realized, it may get fun around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 In all probability it's overdone, but split the difference with the GFS and it is a decedent plowable event. RGEM is in that middle ground I think. I personally don't think any fzra from here to GFL...unless we are talking the chance of freezing drizzle after the main snow shield moves NE of us tomorrow evening. I think mostly snow, maybe a little sleet and around 4-6" generally from the CD north. VT more.... That slug of moisture along in FL/GA is very intriguing to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 In all probability it's overdone, but split the difference with the GFS and it is a decedent plowable event. RGEM is in that middle ground I think. I personally don't think any fzra from here to GFL...unless we are talking the chance of freezing drizzle after the main snow shield moves NE of us tomorrow evening. I think mostly snow, maybe a little sleet and around 4-6" generally from the CD north. VT more.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I'll take Neige for 1000 Alex............................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Wow, another tough forecast for our area. Half of our local mets are gonna need therapy after this winter. Forecasting the mixing line won't be easy. Hopefully there will be some good precip NW of any above freezing tongue of air.....so that somebody gets some good snow. I'm thinking that the deeper the coastal, the better chance for more snow on the NW side and less ice as it draws in colder air and dynamically cools the column. I'm thinking that this one has the potential to surprise. There may be a narrow band of heavy precip where the column stays pretty much isothermal for a good chunk of time and 8"+ falls. GFS slips the best dynamics a bit east for my liking. I'll take the 12Z NAM (with a side of slightly colder) for $1000 Alex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 12Z GGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGEM LULULULULULOVE for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Extrapolate the NAM and I think it also is a good quick hitting snowstorm for Friday. Probably more like the GGEM. The GFS is trending that way I think. A tale of two snow events... This first one largely derived from the thermal boundary along the coast that spins of the coastal wave - away from the best upper dynamics with the northern stream low...until they eventually effect a phase up northeast of us. The the late week one a more dynamically induced wave as the arctic air comes in, phasing with the southern vort. That one is a quick hit, but maybe someone gets a foot + in the best band. Ratios could be stellar. . 12Z GGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGEM LULULULULULOVE for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Can;t go wrong with a LP sitting on the jersey beaches (weekend storm,) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY. * LOCATIONS: WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. * HAZARDS: MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH FREEZING RAIN...AND POSSIBLY ENDING AS FREEZING DRIZZLE. * ACCUMULATIONS: POSSIBLY 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW MIXED WITH SLEET...ALONG WITH A TRACE OF ICE ACCRETION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 The 18z NAM looks like atleast a semi-favorable solution for some heavy snow in Upstate NY beyond H84... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 I've looked at the models and soundings for the Tuesday storm, Right now it looks like the primary low will track Into the upper lakes before a secondary redevelops in the Southeast.. so we will have another double barrel low moving up the coast. this one will be a lot smaller than the last one. it looks like there will be a quick burst of snow on the front end; before the mixing starts; with another few inches on the back side..This should mostly be a snow / sleet event..There could be a little ZR but I'm not concerned about it. I think amounts will stack up like this, 2-4 Northwest of the Mohawk Valley 4-6 looks good for the Mohawk Valley and Maybe 4-8 for parts of the Hudson Valley. The models have the timing on the weekend storm anywhere from Fri to Sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Actually Cap may have gotten one right ! (J/K) I think a nice "cosmetic" tweak to my call from earlier today: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Nice map Andy. I've been trying to imagine what a good map would like for this storm and it made my head hurt. When I saw your map, I thought THAT"S IT! Good luck. Actually Cap may have gotten one right ! (J/K) I think a nice "cosmetic" tweak to my call from earlier today: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 This is the first system that I feel has the potential to bust high on snowfall totals for MBY. It's currently 2.5F/-5.7F and it's always hard to grasp the idea of such cold being removed so quickly, expecially by two weak areas of LP. It's currently snowing in DC and Baltimore so the warm air even at the upper levels is quite a ways away. No matter how this system pans out, as long as it's all frozen when it hits the ground I really don't care what form it comes in. Concrete FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I agree. This one definitely has good bust high potential. Being a teacher.....and having kids....I'm wondering what the schools will do tomorrow. There shouldn't be much in the early morning when the kids go to school, but it might get hairy later. Early dismissal or will the fear of the WSW cause closings? Looking forward to the 0Z data and model runs. This is the first system that I feel has the potential to bust high on snowfall totals for MBY. It's currently 2.5F/-5.7F and it's always hard to grasp the idea of such cold being removed so quickly, expecially by two weak areas of LP. It's currently snowing in DC and Baltimore so the warm air even at the upper levels is quite a ways away. No matter how this system pans out, as long as it's all frozen when it hits the ground I really don't care what form it comes in. Concrete FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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