Organizing Low Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Well, EC is forecasting an inch of snow tomorrow evening, then periods of snow on Friday for ottawa, so maybe we can get 2" i'd say 1-2 inches is the best case if the northern clipper can hold on a bit longer but id hedge closer to around 2cm for ottawa, less than that is also possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I don't know whats going on with my computer, I'm getting all weird symbols when I go to reply or change my signature.................I got 6.9" yesterday and just a hair under 1.5" today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 I ended up with 1.6 inches from yesterdays storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 One of the keys for higher snow amounts will be how the southern jet interacts with this storm. I hope we see more tomorrow than there is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 A very well deserved break at that! Like some other vocations I'm guessing during "boring" weather you may be overpaid, but during "interesting" times you are severely underpaid.... As I have planned a get together of a number of local and out of town folks for next Wednesday night, I suspect we'll have a decent storm. Not all bad though... more snow, more to learn, and likely many desserts left over from the Chocolate Mill I have family that works at the Chocolate Mill. Me tired of plowing??? Not a chance. I have to say pulling people out on the northway has grown tiresome. It is like all the idiots try to go back to their village and want to do it on a snowy road driving 70 with 3/4 worn out tires. The repairs on people plows and trucks has been pretty spectacular too. I was plowing Tuesday night and I was shocked at how heavy it was. Had it stayed cold like the storm previous to the last without the rain and sleet it really would have really added up. It was really sporadic at times with little to no precip falling to snowing so hard you could not see 1/2 mile ahead of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Couchsachraga Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It was a tougher snow to plow than it looked. I take care of my driveway, my inlaws, and the property they have next door. Just enough to keep it enjoyable:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I don't know whats going on with my computer, I'm getting all weird symbols when I go to reply or change my signature.................I got 6.9" yesterday and just a hair under 1.5" today ended up here with 3.0" yesterday and 1.5" today not bad overall. maybe another 1 or 2 friday if we're lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I don't know whats going on with my computer, I'm getting all weird symbols when I go to reply or change my signature.................I got 6.9" yesterday and just a hair under 1.5" today Doesn't happen too often but that's exactly what I wound up with for Tuesday's event. Actually surprised that I had 1" with Wed's "event". One of the keys for higher snow amounts will be how the southern jet interacts with this storm. I hope we see more tomorrow than there is now. Don't think there will be too much interaction. Just musing over next week's potential system a bit; wouldn't it be ironic if after we freeze our whatever off this weekend, that next week's system brings a mix or sleet/ice with it? ended up here with 3.0" yesterday and 1.5" today not bad overall. maybe another 1 or 2 friday if we're lucky. I am starting to think like you regarding the Fri system.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 . Just musing over next week's potential system a bit; wouldn't it be ironic if after we freeze our whatever off this weekend, that next week's system brings a mix or sleet/ice with it? Not this winter..............With the structure of these coastals this year, it's almost like living in NYC where the sun, moon and stars have to all be in alignment to give us a jackpot storm. I'll gladly take a bunch of Tuesday storms and the cold pattern for the rest of the winter...............Though I hate driving on the ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Here's my call for tonight-tomorrow's event...Tug ( and TG) may do quite well on this one: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Not this winter..............With the structure of these coastals this year, it's almost like living in NYC where the sun, moon and stars have to all be in alignment to give us a jackpot storm. I'll gladly take a bunch of Tuesday storms and the cold pattern for the rest of the winter...............Though I hate driving on the ice What's your take on the GFS miss on the middle of next week event? I'll be watching for the trend N by W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I see the 6Z models came in with a solid .25 in ALB. With the good ratios it could end up be at the upper end of your 2-4" I have a hike/snowshoe up Overlook Mountain down in Woodstock (3200 ft) to the Ranger's Cabin on top starting at 6:30 tonight. Supposed to be a moonlight hike, but we'll go even if it ends up being cloudy. Snow should hold off till after midnight I'm thinking. Here's my call for tonight-tomorrow's event...Tug ( and TG) may do quite well on this one: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I do wish we would jackpot in just one storm this winter. We're probably ahead of normal on snowfall (43" here now), but it gets annoying seeing people 40 miles east of you having over a foot more in storms. I know a guy in Hoosic Falls who had 18" in both the Boxing Day event and this last big Noreaster. Not this winter..............With the structure of these coastals this year, it's almost like living in NYC where the sun, moon and stars have to all be in alignment to give us a jackpot storm. I'll gladly take a bunch of Tuesday storms and the cold pattern for the rest of the winter...............Though I hate driving on the ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 What's your take on the GFS miss on the middle of next week event? I'll be watching for the trend N by W This is a bonified arctic airmass plowing in behind this storm. Probably a bit underdone on the models and not in a hurry to be displaced. I think the GFS may be onto something as from here I see a cutter more probable than something going up the CT river valley. But then again, what the hell do I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 This is a bonified arctic airmass plowing in behind this storm. Probably a bit underdone on the models and not in a hurry to be displaced. I think the GFS may be onto something as from here I see a cutter more probable than something going up the CT river valley. But then again, what the hell do I know Considering its a La Nina year NW trends often materialize. On the other hand, while it can happen, January often is not a prolific snow month here; DEC, FEB and MAR tend to have the blockbuster storms. For now HPC is favoring the EC OP because of its continuity over "past" cycles along with its ECEN being similar and stable. That system next week may be one of those ones where the precip shield extends northwards from GA to CNE and Upstate NY while the main low is still down over the FL Panhandle. I'll probably start another thread today to open up discussion on this event and the arctic cold that precedes it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 12Z NAM: Mid Hudson valley to Berkshires get a good moderate event.... Considering its a La Nina year NW trends often materialize. On the other hand, while it can happen, January often is not a prolific snow month here; DEC, FEB and MAR tend to have the blockbuster storms. For now HPC is favoring the EC OP because of its continuity over "past" cycles along with its ECEN being similar and stable. That system next week may be one of those ones where the precip shield extends northwards from GA to CNE and Upstate NY while the main low is still down over the FL Panhandle. I'll probably start another thread today to open up discussion on this event and the arctic cold that precedes it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Hey Logan.....just snowshoed Overlook on Sunday....and skied down. Awesome ski...1400ft. down, nice and wide....no surprises....perfect snow for turns. I wouldn't ski down in the dark of course. Be careful at night, the ruins up top are haunted . I see the 6Z models came in with a solid .25 in ALB. With the good ratios it could end up be at the upper end of your 2-4" I have a hike/snowshoe up Overlook Mountain down in Woodstock (3200 ft) to the Ranger's Cabin on top starting at 6:30 tonight. Supposed to be a moonlight hike, but we'll go even if it ends up being cloudy. Snow should hold off till after midnight I'm thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'm liking the last minute trend on the models. Hopefully we can pull of .4" in the capital district.....6" with fluff factor? Waiting on the GFS. 12Z NAM: Mid Hudson valley to Berkshires get a good moderate event.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'm liking the last minute trend on the models. Hopefully we can pull of .4" in the capital district.....6" with fluff factor? Waiting on the GFS. Coming up with 3/10ths for the CD..also since air is so dry we could lose a few hundredths at the start due to virga/evap. cooling. You're right though a bit more NW on LP tracks from NAM, 06z UK (just a bit). Waiting on GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Definately liking the last-minute trends on the 12z runs of the GFS / NAM for Tonight / Friday. BGM / ALY may need to consider adding another tier or 2 of counties (Esp. ALY) to the Advisory. Here is the most relevent 24-hour QPF for Upstate NY... GFS... NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GFS juiced it up a bit with a NW tick. Keep trendin baby. The models seem to like multiple trends inside of 84 hours this year....lookin good....now not so good....now better....bipolar Virga may be a problem although dewpoints aren't that low.....21F / 16F at Alb last hour. There is quite the dry layer in the upper 700mb region this morning. Coming up with 3/10ths for the CD..also since air is so dry we could lose a few hundredths at the start due to virga/evap. cooling. You're right though a bit more NW on LP tracks from NAM, 06z UK (just a bit). Waiting on GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 If you look at radar you will see that the system is moving little faster than the model said it would....We will have to keep an eye on this.....The NAM is swinging back to where it was....South of ALB still looks to get a moderate snowfall...Ratio's look to be in the 15-1 or 18-1 range .Snow totals may have to be tweeked up a bit...right now I sticking to what I said the other day . Albany 4-8 and Mohawk Valley 3-6 everyone else 1-3 with maybe a few more inches than that on the Tug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Looks like very little virga in PA and OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Looking at 17Z surface maps, low looks a bit further north than NAM forecast but not really faster. Are you referring to low pressure track or precip shield? If you look at radar you will see that the system is moving little faster than the model said it would....We will have to keep an eye on this.....The NAM is swinging back to where it was....South of ALB still looks to get a moderate snowfall...Ratio's look to be in the 15-1 or 18-1 range .Snow totals may have to be tweeked up a bit...right now I sticking to what I said the other day . Albany 4-8 and Mohawk Vallay 3-6 everyone else 1-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Looking at 17Z surface maps, low looks a bit further north than NAM forecast but not really faster. Are you referring to low pressure track or precip shield? Poor choice of words on my part....Precip shield....I'm at work, so I can't go into detail...or look at the data too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Definately liking the last-minute trends on the 12z runs of the GFS / NAM for Tonight / Friday. BGM / ALY may need to consider adding another tier or 2 of counties (Esp. ALY) to the Advisory. Here is the most relevent 24-hour QPF for Upstate NY... Just got the text message, and BGM has added Broome-Chenango-Delaware-Otsego to the WWA... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1249 PM EST THU JAN 20 2011 CHENANGO-BROOME- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORWICH...BINGHAMTON ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY. * LOCATIONS: EASTERN BROOME AND EASTERN CHENANGO COUNTIES * HAZARDS: MODERATE SNOW * ACCUMULATIONS: TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. OTSEGO-DELAWARE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONEONTA...WALTON...DELHI ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY. * LOCATIONS: OTSEGO AND DELAWARE COUNTIES * HAZARDS: MODERATE SNOW * ACCUMULATIONS: TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Alb NWSFO updated Albany to a Winter Weather Advisory with 3-6". Amazing agreement between 12Z NAM and 12Z GFS for ALB with both almost exactly .30 QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Alb NWSFO updated Albany to a Winter Weather Advisory with 3-6". Amazing agreement between 12Z NAM and 12Z GFS for ALB with both almost exactly .30 QPF. Yes It looks like QPF will end up in the .3 - .4 range. I think, ALB will tweak those amounts up a bit more later today or tonignt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 euro is pretty similar to yesterday except .25-.5 coverage extends a bit further north of ART - GFL line ottawa and montreal see very little. trend past 24 hours has been to more emphasis on the southern low and a 'slightly' more digging northern branch, enough of a difference for up here with washing out of the clipper stuck in the middle scenario again.....expected.....and as a result <1inch snow expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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