Tornado Girl Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 This weeks Friday storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I hope it doesn't rain,finally got decent snowpack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I hope it doesn't rain,finally got decent snowpack Tuesday storm could be messy for some perhaps. Then again widespread snowpack CAN (but not always supress storm track some to the south and or east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saggy Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Little rain to slop to snow wouldn't be the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I have to go on record I didn't MAKE TG start this thread. She can't be made to do anything! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 That 1st batch of precip on the gfs looks like all snow.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p24_138l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 It does but then considering the seasonal trend (more NW-W ) as event draws near (due to La Nina).... will it be? Just playing devil's advocate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Lets have a WAA event that goes west and has some serious overrunning in the front end/ dry slot and a last min. jump to the coast. I'm really getting tired of biblical snow bands setting up just to the east that try but never get here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Lets have a WAA event that goes west and has some serious overrunning in the front end/ dry slot and a last min. jump to the coast. I'm really getting tired of biblical snow bands setting up just to the east that try but never get here. agreed nothing worse than missing out on a deformation band by a matter of miles. 12z EC looked like all snow with the next system and the heaviest being over new england again lol that will change though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Lets have a WAA event that goes west and has some serious overrunning in the front end/ dry slot and a last min. jump to the coast. I'm really getting tired of biblical snow bands setting up just to the east that try but never get here. That snow band fooked us good.... Subsidence to its west squashed anything... Actually in a strange sort of way (while banding is possible in almost any type of synoptic system) one would probably not one of the dynamic kind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 That snow band fooked us good.... Subsidence to its west squashed anything... Actually in a strange sort of way (while banding is possible in almost any type of synoptic system) one would probably not one of the dynamic kind Really nice enhancement going on late afternoon/eve south of exit 11 to Albany, It was coming down almost as hard as this morning at times with nice size flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 agreed nothing worse than missing out on a deformation band by a matter of miles. 12z EC looked like all snow with the next system and the heaviest being over new england again lol that will change though. euro ensembles are warmer and further west though per CoastalWx im optimistic for next week we are defintely due now and i do feel the pattern has changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Maybe being west of the CD and at some elevation will come in handy with next week's event. We have to hope it doesn't turn into a cutter that takes us all out of the game. It does but then considering the seasonal trend (more NW-W ) as event draws near (due to La Nina).... will it be? Just playing devil's advocate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I like the look of next week maybe a real SWF event? Something that targets upstate NY especially from Albany on north would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 00z GFS for Tue and Wed....Right now this one is looking like a real mess precipitation wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roady Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 00z GFS for Tue and Wed....Right now this one is looking like a real mess precipitation wise You knew it was going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 06Z looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 IMO still a slew of scenarios on the table for Tuesday's event. Possibile scenarios in my mind range from: 1) a "two-fer" event - primary in from the west then 2ndary development along the ECUS. 2) , a total re-development along the coast, 3) or a strong fropa with possible wave development on the front.... Obvious p-type issues with this event/system, especially with scenario 1 & 3. #3 would also be the "warmer" scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 hopefully we can get some denser snow next week...even with 12 inches on the ground the snowmobile trails are unrideable as the sleds are sinking right to the dirt and rocks with no base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 i posted in the main thread yesterday how things were progressing and moving into a period of increased optimism for up here in the North Country.. i also mentioned there were other ways to get screwed, even though we are in a pattern change. next weeks event is a prime example....a gradient pattern......historically the ottawa-montreal-intl border region do not do well in these patterns at all, in janauary and february.....because WE are the suppliers of the cold air to the gradient at this time of year. we will have to see what happens, but im leaning towards largely a miss here given the spread in modeling. great pattern for the rest of upstate and central new england though. as Andy mentioned, perhaps it will morph into a different presentation.....but a multiple wave gradient is bad news for us generally at this time of year, exceptions allowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Well it may be nice to have an event where we don't have the constant fear of it going out to sea - as almost every one this year seems to have played out. I don''t mind P type storms if we end up getting a decent gain of snow along with the mess. They offer their own challenges and ice capped snow can't blow off my back lawn. But please not 'too much' of a good thing. i posted in the main thread yesterday how things were progressing and moving into a period of increased optimism for up here. i also mentioned there were other ways to get screwed, even though we are in a pattern change. next weeks event is a prime example....a gradient pattern......historically we do not do well in these patterns at all, in janauary and february.....because WE are the suppliers of the cold air to the gradient at this time of year. we will have to see what happens, but im leaning towards largely a miss here given the spread in modeling. great pattern for upstate and central new england. as Andy mentioned, perhaps it will morph into a different presentation.....but a multiple wave gradient is bad news for us generally at this time of year, exceptions allowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Well it may be nice to have an event where we don't have the constant fear of it going out to sea - as almost every one this year seems to have played out. I don''t mind P type storms if we end up getting a decent gain of snow along with the mess. They offer their own challenges and ice capped snow can't blow off my back lawn. But please not 'too much' of a good thing. yeah, i was talking more about my area getting shafted by climo usually, most of upstate and yourself will do fairly well or very well even i think. btw, Don S posted that albany got 13.4 inches in the storm! impressive.....how much did you get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 8.7" ...decent storm, but the Hudson Valley was as far west as any major amounts got. Actually most of the HV on the west side of the river was in the 8-11" range, but there was a bubble of 12-15" around ALB to Troy as some enhanced stuff just sat over them yesterday. yeah, i was talking more about my area getting shafted by climo usually, most of upstate and yourself will do fairly well or very well even i think. btw, Don S posted that albany got 13.4 inches in the storm! impressive.....how much did you get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 12z gfs, decent front end before things turn ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 well the 12z GFS isnt a gradient pattern at all its just a cutter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 We'll have to see the ultimate high position and how well it can dam us in. Decent front end and then the question becomes how much ice versus plain rain in ENY. Sometimes these events are saved here by cold air trapped and we do ok on balance while areas west (WNY) and east (NE coastal plain) torch more. Of course this is strictly based on this GFS scenario. well the 12z GFS isnt a gradient pattern at all its just a cutter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDeal Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I was pleasantly surprised by the total I got in this storm. I took a measurement at 8:30 AM and had 7.5 inches. I figured that was going to be it, as I watched the snow diminish greatly during the day from my office in Albany. But in the afternoon it really picked up again. I took a measurement at 5:30 and had 14.5 inches, and it looks like we got an inch or two after that until things finally wound down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The 12Z Euro will give us a much better idea as to how far S the primary goes and whether or not the coastal transfer occurs soon enough to keep those chilly E winds going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 12z is a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The 12Z Euro will give us a much better idea as to how far S the primary goes and whether or not the coastal transfer occurs soon enough to keep those chilly E winds going. From the limited frames I can see on the 12z Euro it looked better to me than the 12z GFS. At this point in the game I'd place bets on the Euro. Like Logan said, a bit of mixed precip isn't so bad. Our snowpack needs something to weight it down, and it's deep enough that it can absorb some rain and then refreeze. I'll be happy as long as their is a net gain of frozen precip on the ground by the time all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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