Couchsachraga Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Thanks TG... if you AND Andy are still "interested" in the potential it will be great to watch how things evolve. Andy's been nailing the storms pretty good lately accumulation and timing wise... I'll be curious to see his thoughts on this storm the next 24-36 hours (assuming he has time). And yes, that includes "NW Warren County / SW Adirondacks" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looking at those obs, we really got shafted in this Helderbergs to western Schenectady county area. Just about everyone beat us ...so many hours where it barely even precipitated. 2 inch final here and that's only by adding the 1.6" of snow + the .4" of sleet. While some rain drops were mixed in the sleet at times, any FZRA was minimal here. No ice acretion of note on the trees, but the top layer of sleet froze solid so at least blowing snow is not a factor anymore. 28.8F now.......high for the day. BTW...0Z NAM continues to go further offshore and weaker with Friday's storm....completely lost last night's solution. I figure we still have tomorrow to trend this thing back northwest. But not holding my breath for much N or W of Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Can we trust this guy's storm report. Only kidding. Congrats on the snow up there. Had around two inches here then a crusty layer on top. Had around 0.30 of ice accum. ...WARREN COUNTY... LAKE LUZERNE 7.0 550 PM 1/18 WEATHERNET6 GLENS FALLS 6.5 445 PM 1/18 WTEN METEOROLOGIST who dat! I know this guy! WARRENSBURG 6.5 535 PM 1/18 WEATHERNET6 QUEENSBURY 5.5 439 PM 1/18 WEATHERNET6 BRANT LAKE 5.0 448 PM 1/18 WEATHERNET6 ...WARREN COUNTY... LAKE LUZERNE 7.0 550 PM 1/18 WEATHERNET6 BOLTON LANDING 7.0 800 PM 1/18 TRAINED SPOTTER GLENS FALLS 6.5 445 PM 1/18 WTEN METEOROLOGIST WARRENSBURG 6.5 535 PM 1/18 WEATHERNET6 QUEENSBURY 5.5 439 PM 1/18 WEATHERNET6 BRANT LAKE 5.0 448 PM 1/18 WEATHERNET6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Thanks TG... if you AND Andy are still "interested" in the potential it will be great to watch how things evolve. Andy's been nailing the storms pretty good lately accumulation and timing wise... I'll be curious to see his thoughts on this storm the next 24-36 hours (assuming he has time). And yes, that includes "NW Warren County / SW Adirondacks" The models are in loose agreement on the track. However the models are having a hard time with how deep the low will get. As you saw in the NAM model run I posted, it brings the low fairly close to the coast and is the most aggressive of the models. I gives the ALB area a moderate snowstorm. However the other models don't agree. As you can see The EURO and GFS have the low to far east so it does no one any good from Albany and points west. The EURO has had a good track record this year except for the last two storms...A blend of 65% NAM and 35% GFS has fairly will nailed those storms...Like I said I think the EURO is out to lunch on this one. It's too early to talk amounts. That said, based on what I see right now. The North country west of The Adirondacks look to see 1-3 inches. The western Mohawk Valley 2-4 eastern Mohawk Valley and parts of the Southern Tier seeing 3-6 with the Albany Mid Hudson Valley seeing 4-8 closer to the coast 6-12 and New England seeing 12-16+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The models are in loose agreement on the track. However the models are having a hard time with how deep the low will get. As you saw in the NAM model run I posted, it brings the low fairly close to the coast and is the most aggressive of the models. I gives the ALB area a moderate snowstorm. However the other models don't agree. As you can see The EURO and GFS have the low to far east so it does no one any good from Albany and points west. The EURO has had a good track record this year except for the last two storms...A blend of 65% NAM and 35% GFS has fairly will nailed those storms...Like I said I think the EURO is out to lunch on this one. It's too early to talk amounts. That said, based on what I see right now. The North country west of The Adirondacks look to see 1-3 inches. The western Mohawk Valley 2-4 eastern Mohawk Valley and parts of the Southern Tier seeing 3-6 with the Albany Mid Hudson Valley seeing 4-8 closer to the coast 6-12 and New England seeing 12-16+ are you thinking Ottawa will get anything? 2" perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Looking at radar...The backside of this system is almost here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 are you thinking Ottawa will get anything? 2" perhaps? Like I said, it's too early to talk amounts...but we can hope . Based on what the models look like right now, I think southern Ontario should could see 1-3 inches ....Places east of you in parts of Quebec and New Brunswick might see 8-16 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Like I said, it's too early to talk amounts...but we can hope . Based on what the models look like right now, I think southern Ontario should could see 1-3 inches ....Places east of you in parts of Quebec and New Brunswick might see 8-16 inches of snow. well, given the way this winter has gone, 2-3" would satisfy me - our snowpack is building and it does look very winterlike here in Ottawa. Hopefully we can get the 2" followed by rapidly falling temperatures, drifting snow and ground blizzards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Thanks TG... if you AND Andy are still "interested" in the potential it will be great to watch how things evolve. Andy's been nailing the storms pretty good lately accumulation and timing wise... I'll be curious to see his thoughts on this storm the next 24-36 hours (assuming he has time). And yes, that includes "NW Warren County / SW Adirondacks" Thanks! I want to keep the mojo going. I've been doing well due to some close collaboration with Cap here at work, as well with Tornado Girl and her keen insights, too. See below for my thoughts on the Friday system The models are in loose agreement on the track. However the models are having a hard time with how deep the low will get. As you saw in the NAM model run I posted, it brings the low fairly close to the coast and is the most aggressive of the models. I gives the ALB area a moderate snowstorm. However the other models don't agree. As you can see The EURO and GFS have the low to far east so it does no one any good from Albany and points west. The EURO has had a good track record this year except for the last two storms...A blend of 65% NAM and 35% GFS has fairly will nailed those storms...Like I said I think the EURO is out to lunch on this one. It's too early to talk amounts. That said, based on what I see right now. The North country west of The Adirondacks look to see 1-3 inches. The western Mohawk Valley 2-4 eastern Mohawk Valley and parts of the Southern Tier seeing 3-6 with the Albany Mid Hudson Valley seeing 4-8 closer to the coast 6-12 and New England seeing 12-16+ Somewhat better consensus on the models wrt to the Fri day system. I expect snow to overspread ENY and WNE between 11pm Thurs night thru 3 am Friday morning. In house techniques for forecasting LP deepening support MODERATE but NOT rapid deepening at this time. Most models have similar tracks. I continue to lean heavily on NAM with some UK blended in. One caveat to the deepening just about all the models have the H5 trough showing a slight negative tilt so there is still room for a more robust intensification IMO. Also the the GFS is farthest south as to where the 2ndary forms ( VA Capes), that is close to the northwall of the Gulfstream. If the more south GFS evelopment verifies there could be more baroclinicty and a more rapid development. As for QP using a blend of SREFS, UK, EC and secondary data: for the N'rn Catskills north across the MV and Herkimer & Hamilton counties 1/4"; Upper HV 1/3"; Albany 1/2" maybe 2/3rds and POU/S'rn Berkshires & Litchfield Hills 2/3rds to 8/10ths. Snow ratio NW and N of ALB 15 maybe 18: 1, ALB 13-15:1 south and SE thru E of ALB 10-12:1. Again the above numbers (QP and SR are all preliminary now). EDIT TO ADD: Perusal of 12z NAM for now would indicate a light to moderate snowfall still in the cards. However I find the very strong "channeled" & strong vort max forecast to move across SENy & SNE interesting could see a 2-4 hour period of heavy snow with and along its track perhaps extending into the SE'ern Taconics and Berkshires. In addition NAM looks to have some sort of a trough extending NNW from the sfc LP ( a bit "NORLUN-esque") perhaps. Could see light to in places a few lollipops on the moderate side back across CNY too. Just something to look at. SREFS from 09z are SE of 03Z but the SREFS, IMO are not quite within their "wheelhouse period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 well, given the way this winter has gone, 2-3" would satisfy me - our snowpack is building and it does look very winterlike here in Ottawa. Hopefully we can get the 2" followed by rapidly falling temperatures, drifting snow and ground blizzards our best chance for those type of conditions is a northern dominated stream....or a much deeper southern system, which also we are running out of time for. but as is now, clipper washes out, storm passes east, leaving us in the middle of nothing again.....dont expect anything exciting including any rapidly falling temps, though it will turn from cold to even colder i suppose. based on the current models, the effects from this event for us: maybe a cm or 2 of light snow, not much wind and turning colder.....but this is not one of those dramatic polar fronts....at least as of this morning. hopefully that changes....time is short though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powderqueen Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 are you thinking Ottawa will get anything? 2" perhaps? Isn't there a Canadanwx.com? I always wondered why the Canadians ask for their forecast in the NY/PA thread? Is it difficult to get weather info for Canada? I'm going to interior BC in late Feb, and have been looking for good radar and forecasts for that area. I have come up empty (besides inaccuweather and Wundground), so I'm thinking it could be the same trouble for eastern Canada as well. What you say Canucks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Eastern Canada has sort of been adopted into this region. The Canadian-friendly region if you will...we like having them around. Isn't there a Canadanwx.com? I always wondered why the Canadians ask for their forecast in the NY/PA thread? Is it difficult to get weather info for Canada? I'm going to interior BC in late Feb, and have been looking for good radar and forecasts for that area. I have come up empty (besides inaccuweather and Wundground), so I'm thinking it could be the same trouble for eastern Canada as well. What you say Canucks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Isn't there a Canadanwx.com? I always wondered why the Canadians ask for their forecast in the NY/PA thread? Is it difficult to get weather info for Canada? I'm going to interior BC in late Feb, and have been looking for good radar and forecasts for that area. I have come up empty (besides inaccuweather and Wundground), so I'm thinking it could be the same trouble for eastern Canada as well. What you say Canucks? environment canada is the government issued forecasts..... similar to NWS, but nowhere near as informative. make sure you click on warnings and special weather statements for text issuances. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/forecast/canada/index_e.html?id=BC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Isn't there a Canadanwx.com? I always wondered why the Canadians ask for their forecast in the NY/PA thread? Is it difficult to get weather info for Canada? I'm going to interior BC in late Feb, and have been looking for good radar and forecasts for that area. I have come up empty (besides inaccuweather and Wundground), so I'm thinking it could be the same trouble for eastern Canada as well. What you say Canucks? well again, i think a lot of ny state is heavily populated but the region north of syracuse to the border is an expansive area that places like ottawa and monteal (not at all far from the international border) has much in common with, synoptically. there is plenty of cross-border travel to and from this citites and towns, including people working in either country. not to mention the heavy traffic between buffalo/niagra and toronto....but the toronto posters post in the central forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 posted it in the wrong thread eariler re: upcoming event euro continues to place a bit more emphasis on the northern stream wave for the next storm.....still though has all of NYS south of ART-GFL line in 0.25.0.50 precip for thurs-fri north of there is 0.1-0.25 thanks primarily to the northern stream system, esp in ontario. no precip really here in montreal area. good ratios i imagine should be a nice little event for the southern half of NYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Interesting for Thurs Night-FRI event: It is EC vs. the models. EC would favor a moderate even marginally heavy snowfall for the Mid HV south and east across SNE. SREFS look to continue trend farther S & E look a bit drier too (at least the 15z run did). A couple of days a go TG mentioned that it may go this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Ever since we started this Upstate thread ...it was always called "Upstate NY and North Country" to take in adjacent areas in Ontario, Quebec, and sometimes northern VT. WX doesn't stop at the border. The powers that be at EUSWX and now here...decided to lump Upstate NY in with PA. That was their decision. But if people in the northern tier counties of PA want to comment in the Upstate threads then that makes sense for some events. Isn't there a Canadanwx.com? I always wondered why the Canadians ask for their forecast in the NY/PA thread? Is it difficult to get weather info for Canada? I'm going to interior BC in late Feb, and have been looking for good radar and forecasts for that area. I have come up empty (besides inaccuweather and Wundground), so I'm thinking it could be the same trouble for eastern Canada as well. What you say Canucks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Well...looks like based on SREF mean for ALB from 09z and a QPF technique that I like to use (specially good with Miller Type Cyclones) Albany looks to be around .35-40 ( The technique is just a few hundreths above the SREF mean)...based on this and assuming no further shifts south and east on the LP...a moderate near 6 or so snowfall is possible for the CD. I'll have to take a closer look at the ratios later. I looked at the potential instability and its "odd" for wont of a better word: the LL Lapse Rates appear to be moderate even borderline strong but the change in LI is weak...so convective potential is there but will there be something to trigger it? This system COULD turn out to be similar too last Friday's storm(though probably not as "prolific" as last week's snowfall amts were-but close perhaps) across the Saratoga-'Dacks region...proper coming together of favorable "elements/ingredients" in both time and place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 Well...looks like based on SREF mean for ALB from 09z and a QPF technique that I like to use (specially good with Miller Type Cyclones) Albany looks to be around .35-40 ( The technique is just a few hundreths above the SREF mean)...based on this and assuming no further shifts south and east on the LP...a moderate near 6 or so snowfall is possible for the CD. I'll have to take a closer look at the ratios later. I looked at the potential instability and its "odd" for wont of a better word: the LL Lapse Rates appear to be moderate even borderline strong but the change in LI is weak...so convective potential is there but will there be something to trigger it? This system COULD turn out to be similar too last Friday's storm(though probably not as "prolific" as last week's snowfall amts were-but close perhaps) across the Saratoga-'Dacks region...proper coming together of favorable "elements/ingredients" in both time and place I agree....Wait is that a good thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I agree....Wait is that a good thing It was for me! Then again like the Tom Petty song goes: "Waiting is the hardest part" Sort of like waiting for the Title of this thread to change. Let's have some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Couchsachraga Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 When the two of you agree it gets everyones attention We seem to be in quite a nice little pattern here of precipitation events every 3-4 days. I wonder if Fed17 is getting tired of plowing yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 When the two of you agree it gets everyones attention We seem to be in quite a nice little pattern here of precipitation events every 3-4 days. I wonder if Fed17 is getting tired of plowing yet That' ll come after next week's storm. TBH though while I like the challenge and fun of the forecast challenge I am sort of hoping for a bit of a break...getting too old for this stuff.... I have already built up comp time this month and year... I predict a vacation in my near future... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I just read in the SNE thread that the Euro has a snow to rain storm in BOS next week. Maybe that is a plus for Upstate NY. I haven't looked at the maps. That' ll come after next week's storm. TBH though while I like the challenge and fun of the forecast challenge I am sort of hoping for a bit of a break...getting too old for this stuff.... I have already built up comp time this month and year... I predict a vacation in my near future... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Couchsachraga Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 A very well deserved break at that! Like some other vocations I'm guessing during "boring" weather you may be overpaid, but during "interesting" times you are severely underpaid.... As I have planned a get together of a number of local and out of town folks for next Wednesday night, I suspect we'll have a decent storm. Not all bad though... more snow, more to learn, and likely many desserts left over from the Chocolate Mill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sgottmann Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Well...looks like based on SREF mean for ALB from 09z and a QPF technique that I like to use (specially good with Miller Type Cyclones) Albany looks to be around .35-40 ( The technique is just a few hundreths above the SREF mean)...based on this and assuming no further shifts south and east on the LP...a moderate near 6 or so snowfall is possible for the CD. I'll have to take a closer look at the ratios later. I looked at the potential instability and its "odd" for wont of a better word: the LL Lapse Rates appear to be moderate even borderline strong but the change in LI is weak...so convective potential is there but will there be something to trigger it? This system COULD turn out to be similar too last Friday's storm(though probably not as "prolific" as last week's snowfall amts were-but close perhaps) across the Saratoga-'Dacks region...proper coming together of favorable "elements/ingredients" in both time and place Thanks for your updates. I am sure there are many lurkers like me who appeciate your efforts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 <br />Well...looks like based on SREF mean for ALB from 09z and a QPF technique that I like to use (specially good with Miller Type Cyclones) Albany looks to be around .35-40 ( The technique is just a few hundreths above the SREF mean)...based on this and assuming no further shifts south and east on the LP...a moderate near 6 or so snowfall is possible for the CD. <br /><br />I'll have to take a closer look at the ratios later. <br /><br />I looked at the potential instability and its "odd" for wont of a better word: the LL Lapse Rates appear to be moderate even borderline strong but the change in LI is weak...so convective potential is there but will there be something to trigger it?<br /><br />This system COULD turn out to be similar too last Friday's storm(though probably not as "prolific" as last week's snowfall amts were-but close perhaps) across the Saratoga-'Dacks region...proper coming together of favorable "elements/ingredients" in both time and place<br /><br /><br /><br /> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 <br /><br /><br /> I agree! Maybe What did you get with yesterday's snow....6.8 here another 1/3rd today .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I don't like how that little system today got wrapped up as it approached the coast. While the daylong nuisance snow was lovely, I'm concerned that it ultimately might cause Friday's storm to wind up further S & E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Thanks for your updates. I am sure there are many lurkers like me who appeciate your efforts. My pleasure and you're welcome... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 posted it in the wrong thread eariler re: upcoming event euro continues to place a bit more emphasis on the northern stream wave for the next storm.....still though has all of NYS south of ART-GFL line in 0.25.0.50 precip for thurs-fri north of there is 0.1-0.25 thanks primarily to the northern stream system, esp in ontario. no precip really here in montreal area. good ratios i imagine should be a nice little event for the southern half of NYS. Well, EC is forecasting an inch of snow tomorrow evening, then periods of snow on Friday for ottawa, so maybe we can get 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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