DixieBlizzard Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Ah thank you. Rarely do I view those models so I wasn't sure. Sorry! The first was the NMM and the 2nd was ARW. Sorry again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KO0588 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Ah thank you. Rarely do I view those models so I wasn't sure. NMM vs ARW not the next frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks like two different models to me valid at the same time - am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks like two different models to me valid at the same time - am I missing something? Nope. It's two different models at the same time-frame: NMM and ARW. Hopefully the NMM verifies over the ARW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Nope. It's two different models at the same time-frame: NMM and ARW. Hopefully the NMM verifies over the ARW. No doubt. I find it very hard to believe that barely a drop or flake will have fallen in the entire state of North Carolina by 7 PM on Monday, so seems easy to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 what y'all think about this: I think its great... still heavy precip. occurring too at 48 hours! I hate to sound like a broken record, but the strength of the s/w and the speed that the 200mb low moves out of the way are absolutely key to our precipitation forecast, because a lot of our lift is created by divergence on the right entrance region of a jet streak. The NMM derivation of the WRF shows a jet-streak that is much more favorable for the promotion of divergence and lift over SC and NC, so its no surprise that the amounts are way up. The jet-streak quickly re-orients in an unfavorable position after 36 hours, but by that point the precipitation is already streaming in NC, and higher amounts are assured (per this model simulation) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I think its great... still heavy precip. occurring too at 48 hours! I hate to sound like a broken record, but the strength of the s/w and the speed that the 200mb low moves out of the way are absolutely key to our precipitation forecast, because a lot of our lift is created by divergence on the right entrance region of a jet streak. The NMM derivation of the WRF shows a jet-streak that is much more favorable for the promotion of divergence and lift over SC and NC, so its no surprise that the amounts are way up. The jet-streak quickly re-orients in an unfavorable position after 36 hours, but by that point the precipitation is already streaming in NC, and higher amounts are assured (per this model simulation) Agreed. That's been a constant worry to me but it looks like it's getting out of the way just in enough time for increased precipitation amounts...at least the way I see it on some of the latest models regarding increased qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks dryer this run at hr30 compared to hr36 of last run. If the models continue with this trend, I won't even see a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This run looks nearly like a carbon copy to 0z from 30-36: Precipitation looks like it wants to reach NC and then shafts the state later on. Not panicking about it since it's pretty much the time to start watching radar and the RUC/SREF runs over the NAM anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evil Elvis Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Temps dropping like a rock here. 22 degrees; well under the forecast low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks dryer this run at hr30 compared to hr36 of last run. If the models continue with this trend, I won't even see a dusting. Calm down dude... Greenville, SC is in excellent shape for this storm. No need to get all bent out of shape, especially when the RUC is looks more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NegativeTilt Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm here but I don't have enough knowledge to contribute; I just read and learn. Sorry. I think all the mets went to bed lol. Do you have any PxP you care to share? no...im not worthy to give PxP...and also down want to get a yellow card either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Calm down dude... Greenville, SC is in excellent shape for this storm. No need to get all bent out of shape, especially when the RUC is looks more amplified. Everytime this area looks to be in excellent shape we get shafted. Has happened with the last three winter storms here. I sadly expect this time to be no different. I've come to get used to it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Everytime this area looks to be in excellent shape we get shafted. Has happened with the last three winter storms here. I sadly expect this time to be no different. I've come to get used to it though. This is a far different situation than the last few winters... we have not had such a cold airmass in place like this in a long long time. Folks that are comparing this to 1988 are right on the money. Latest SREF guidance is interesting. There are still a few members painting widespread areas of 1" plus across WSC and WNC. I really like looking at the individual models, because you can see the "worst case senerio" in regards to convection in the Gulf of Mexico robbing moisture. I have circled the suite of SREF models that over emphasize convection. Even in this case, it looks like WNC and WSC get from .3-.8" in this worst case senerio of precipitation. Not to bad if we consider this our bottom line... if we don't end up with much convection near the gulf, you can throw those models out, and immediately the SREF mean goes way up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I certainly hope you're right Phil. Here is GSP's latest AFD: .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT REACHES THE SRN APPALACHIANS MON. SOME DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD REACH THE REGION MON MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW REFLECTION NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE BY 18Z MON. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MORE SNOW THAN ANY OTHER PTYPE DURING THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE...AS THEY SEEM TO BE GRADUALLY GETTING A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. QPF AMOUNTS...HOWEVER..CONTINUE TO POSE THE GREATEST QUESTION. CONVECTION FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO SE GA ON MON COULD INHIBIT MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SEEMS MORE REASONABLE WITH THE LOWER QPF FOR THIS REASON. SLIGHTLY LOWER QPF THAN PREVIOUSLY...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER PROFILES THAN PREVIOUSLY...YIELDS A SIMILAR SNOW FORECAST. BASED ON ANTICIPATED 12 TO 24 HOUR SNOW ACCUMS RANGING FROM 6 TO 9 INCHES IN THE SW MOUNTAINS TO 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS CHARLOTTE METRO...WILL GO AHEAD AND POST A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WATCH WILL BE RETAINED TO THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN ALL MOS SOURCES ON MON WITH THE PRECIP ONSET INTO THE DRY AIR. THE POTENTIAL FOR ICING THEN BECOMES THE FOCUS THROUGH THE MON NIGHT PERIOD. WEAK DEFORMATION FORCING COULD LINGER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...AS THE COASTAL WATERS LOW SLOWLY DEEPENS AGAIN. ADDITIONAL WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT NEAR THE EXIT REGION OF THE TRAILING JET STREAK WILL ARRIVE MON NIGHT AS WELL. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONG MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH WILL WRAP SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA FROM SW TO NE MON NIGHT. THE SUDDEN DRYING WILL ALLOW ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS ICE NUCLEI DISAPPEAR. HOWEVER...IT COULD TAKE MOST OF THE NIGHT FOR A COMPLETE CHANGEOVER TO REACH THE NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE LIMITED QPF...ICE ACCUMS SHOULD STILL BE LESS A TENTH OF AN INCH MOST AREAS. THE NRN CONUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP EWD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE MON NIGHT TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY BY LATE TUE. ALL OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE REGION BY TUE...BUT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER GIVEN THE SW FLOW AND MOIST LOW LEVELS. WENT MUCH COOLER THAN MOS AGAIN FOR TUE TEMPS WITH SLOWLY DISSIPATING CAD BETWEEN THE COASTAL AND OH VALLEY SYSTEMS. STRONGLY CHANNELED VORTICITY ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP 500 MB SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE FAR NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...BUT ANY QPF WOULD BE QUITE LIMITED. A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND IN INCREASING NW FLOW MOISTURE NEAR THE TN BORDER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE UPSLOPE PREFERRED SECTIONS OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH WED.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 This is a far different situation than the last few winters... we have not had such a cold airmass in place like this in a long long time. Folks that are comparing this to 1988 are right on the money. Latest SREF guidance is interesting. There are still a few members painting widespread areas of 1" plus across WSC and WNC. I really like looking at the individual models, because you can see the "worst case senerio" in regards to convection in the Gulf of Mexico robbing moisture. I have circled the suite of SREF models that over emphasize convection. Even in this case, it looks like WNC and WSC get from .3-.8" in this worst case senerio of precipitation. Not to bad if we consider this our bottom line... if we don't end up with much convection near the gulf, you can throw those models out, and immediately the SREF mean goes way up. I am with you Phil. This thing is so on! If you look at the NAM temps (not QPF), they fit the bill for our areas. The snow ratios will be insane at the start (will help make up for qpf eaten up by the dry air) and the GFS/RUC precip totals are inching up there! Lastlly, the NAM is showing a strong CAD sig up to the end of the storm. I am betting on most of this being snow, with changover the last few hours of the storm to snow/ip and then a slow freezing drizzle to end the storm. This has 1988 written ALL OVER IT! One other thing to watch is the coastal lp as well. The way I look at it? We are a lock for some snow/wintry weather. Everything else is bonus from here? At least we are not SEARCHING for "what if's" to try to FIND a way that wintry weather "might happen". This is a classic SE storm, like back in the day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Winter Storm Warning now up for area: http://forecast.weat...r+Storm+Warning GSP has increased projected snow totals: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 The southern 2/3 of the NWS-GSP zone is now under a Winter Storm Warning. The 1-09-11 morning discussion is a very well thought through one by GSP (as always-they always seem to have their act together!). A snippet from the discussion talks about the decrease in moisture from the models. However, they reconize that the 850's are trending colder, so this makes up for the decrease of qpf with better snow ratios! They also mentioned prolonged deformation in the NC Piedmont. I am patiently waiting the GFS 06z run to see if there is any change with the QPF in regards to trends. The only thing that concerns me now is the mention of convection robbing moisture from us during the height of our the storm, when we have our best lift. Wishing everyone luck. This shall be a fun ride! EDIT: I forgot to mention that I spot checked discussions from various NWS Offices from Bama to the Carolinas and it appears that the orginal forecast low temps had to be adjusted DOWN. This means that there is more cold air settling in and could possibly help down the road with delaying the effects of the warm nose = longer duration of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Another map to put folks in Western SC at ease Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bta0812 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I am with you Phil. This thing is so on! If you look at the NAM temps (not QPF), they fit the bill for our areas. The snow ratios will be insane at the start (will help make up for qpf eaten up by the dry air) and the GFS/RUC precip totals are inching up there! Lastlly, the NAM is showing a strong CAD sig up to the end of the storm. I am betting on most of this being snow, with changover the last few hours of the storm to snow/ip and then a slow freezing drizzle to end the storm. This has 1988 written ALL OVER IT! One other thing to watch is the coastal lp as well. The way I look at it? We are a lock for some snow/wintry weather. Everything else is bonus from here? At least we are not SEARCHING for "what if's" to try to FIND a way that wintry weather "might happen". This is a classic SE storm, like back in the day! Well in that case, I wish I knew what the 88 storm brought here, buuttt considering I was one at the time I don't. Guess I will google. Nevertheless, things are trending positive it looks like you guys are saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Well in that case, I wish I knew what the 88 storm brought here, buuttt considering I was one at the time I don't. Guess I will google. Nevertheless, things are trending positive it looks like you guys are saying. Likely won't be as intense as this, but this was Jan 1988. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bta0812 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Likely won't be as intense as this, but this was Jan 1988. I know its just a hiccup with the map, but you see that county north of Raleigh, with no total, thats me hahaha. I looked further, we got 7. Thanks man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 CAE has just issued a Winter Storm Warning for its entire CWA: Northern/Central Midlands Winter Storm Warning Southern Midlands & CSRA Winter Storm Warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KO0588 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 06z GFS looks a lot wetter for central NC. it is also a lot dryer everywhere else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KO0588 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Hmmmm, care to explain that? OOz 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NegativeTilt Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 you're welcome, just seemed a little easier doing it like that and it'll show it for everyone. used to live in rock co. where abouts are ya? and that map is pleasing to the eyes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bta0812 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 That map IS very pleasing! Hope it continues to trend precip north and east into NC! But we will just have to see! Some .5's in this area would be nice. Wonder what the ratios will be. It's getting down to serious time. Guess the 12z run will really begin to nail some things down, hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KO0588 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 used to live in rock co. where abouts are ya? and that map is pleasing to the eyes! I live in Ruffin, not even a half mile from Virgina. Some of the model runs tonight sure are making me feel better, but still with all this dry air i'm worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I call your attention to that strong line of convection in the big bend of Texas. I hope that is not the robbery train. Must say though the moisture looks impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It's not a good sign when you don't even have a WSW and all counties south and east of you do, when you're under 24 hour start time. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.