IsentropicLift Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 With two possible major systems on the horizon its time to start analyzing models run by run. The 12z GFS is already running lets discuss... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 now it gets more interesting. Low over great lakes now pops a secondary on the coast, a little off the coast. Not a dull moment on the gfs.!!!However, as usual, it goes out to sea. That is the story of our winter, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Have to disagree here...the euro and the GFS are now very close aloft. It's just a matter of consolidating the energy in time like the 00z EC showed. This run of the GFS was a big step in the right direction...let's hope the 12z EC holds serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Have to disagree here...the euro and the GFS are now very close aloft. It's just a matter of consolidating the energy in time like the 00z EC showed. This run of the GFS was a big step in the right direction...let's hope the 12z EC holds serve. Look pretty different aloft to me. Euro 12Z gfs For nyc north, it certainly could come south more and hit them but gettign the 500 low south of DC looks like a giant stretch. I'd be excited if I lived from NYC northward, not so much farther to the south. Looks like many of the other storms this year. I'll be happy with a clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Look pretty different aloft to me. Euro 12Z gfs For nyc north, it certainly could come south more and hit them but gettign the 500 low south of DC looks like a giant stretch. I'd be excited if I lived from NYC northward, not so much farther to the south. Looks like many of the other storms this year. I'll be happy with a clipper. When you compare these images you can see its just a matter of consolidating the energy quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Have to disagree here...the euro and the GFS are now very close aloft. It's just a matter of consolidating the energy in time like the 00z EC showed. This run of the GFS was a big step in the right direction...let's hope the 12z EC holds serve. The Euro and GFS are very different, even starting at 24...just looking at the 500 mb level you can as see that the closed low in central canada is much much stronger on the Euro than the GFS which, I would believe, allows it to remain the dominant feature at this level as at the same time the energy is eastern canada is much, much weaker than this low. This allows it to dig significantly further to the south than the GFS with the closed upper level low in addition to being much more defined on the Euro leading to a storm that explodes and stalls much earlier on the Euro than the GFS... Does this sound about right, its just what I'm seeing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The Euro and GFS are very different, even starting at 24...just looking at the 500 mb level you can as see that the closed low in central canada is much much stronger on the Euro than the GFS which, I would believe, allows it to remain the dominant feature at this level as at the same time the energy is eastern canada is much, much weaker than this low. This allows it to dig significantly further to the south than the GFS with the closed upper level low in addition to being much more defined on the Euro leading to a storm that explodes and stalls much earlier on the Euro than the GFS... Does this sound about right, its just what I'm seeing thanks for the explanation.!!!The euro seems to lead in signaling these storms and every else just tags along. The only problem, to me, is that, there are so many different opinions as to what happens here. The mets say what the euro show isn't possible, or likely. So what do you believe, or take from a model standpoint, without met discussion, Yet DT did say there were two snow fall scenarios. NJNYPA makes his points too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 thanks for the explanation.!!!The euro seems to lead in signaling these storms and every else just tags along. The only problem, to me, is that, there are so many different opinions as to what happens here. The mets say what the euro show isn't possible, or likely. So what do you believe, or take from a model standpoint, without met discussion, Yet DT did say there were two snow fall scenarios. NJNYPA makes his points too. Well, it does seem like an extreme solution, especially given what other models are saying...the thing is its not going to take that long to see which way this system is trending because to me it looks like it depends on how that energy splits and which one remains dominant... I think the Euro is possible, but not necessarily the likeliest of solutions, I think that its going to end up somewhere inbetween the current GFS and Euro positions although either could happen really...personally Im gonna wait to see a few more cycles before I even try to forecast this thing, I dont have enough background in Climatology to speak to the precedence of a storm as depicted on the Euro but Weather is weather so we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 12z UK absolutely crushes New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 The 12Z gfs ensemble 500 forecasts valid at the same time as the euro. Has one interesting member for NYC and maybe Phl with the 500 low off the NJ coast. I think member P009. Anyway, all are quite different than the 00Z euro. That doesn't mean it can't be right but suggests it is not the most likely solution and that the upper low will probably end up north of its forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Guys, please stick to model discussion. Except for Wes, this thread was a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 12Z Euro looks nothing like the 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 12z GFS made a huge jump toward the other models with the 2nd storm mid next week (Day 9). 0z run: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fp0_228.shtml 12z run: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_216.shtml Gives a decent snowstorm to VA/DC/MD and western NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 12Z Euro looks nothing like the 00Z. But it does eventually give the mid atlantic a clipper but it's with a different impulse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 So the Euro has gone from this(0 UTC run) To this (12 UTC run) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdjnr Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 So the Euro has gone from this(0 UTC run) To this (12 UTC run) Wouldn't it make sense to compare apples to apples? The 0z picture displays the 0z view on 1/8/11, while the 12z picture displays the 12z view on 1/8/11. Not saying there aren't differences, but it would make sense to compare the same times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Wouldn't it make sense to compare apples to apples? The 0z picture displays the 0z view on 1/8/11, while the 12z picture displays the 12z view on 1/8/11. Not saying there aren't differences, but it would make sense to compare the same times. Since the euro free stuff only comes out every 24 hrs this is the only comparison that can easily be made unless you are paying for the euro. In my opinion, the differences are huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 Since the euro free stuff only comes out every 24 hrs this is the only comparison that can easily be made unless you are paying for the euro. In my opinion, the differences are huge. still pops a sexy coastal @ 216 though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 It's about 3 days away just wait a and see how the newer Model runs turn out as. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman85 Posted January 3, 2011 Share Posted January 3, 2011 I'm new here, so forgive me if this is in the wrong place. The 18z gfs shows a much weaker high (1048) vs the 1066 at 12z. I'm not really too concerned about it as I would expect there to be fluctuations as we get closer into the event. The 12z Euro is by far the coldest I have ever seen--ever. Could be quite an ice/snow event across the southern plains from Houston to New Orleans if the previous runs came to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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