September 2026

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be another variably cloudy day. Highs should reach the middle and upper 60s.

Some periods of rain and showers are possible late Friday through the weekend. The extent of the precipitation will depend on the track of a developing storm. For now, the system looks to pass far enough from the region to produce lighter to moderate amounts of precipitation in the immediate New York City area. Coastal erosion and some flooding at high tide appears likely. Long Island, especially Suffolk County, could experience gusty winds with some periods of heavy rain.

Uncertainty still exists in terms of track and timing. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool through the weekend with highs mainly in the lower and middle 60s. 
 
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.0°C for the week centered around September 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.73°C. Both ENSO regions have tied their all-time warmest anomalies. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. 

The SOI was -12.06 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.757 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 67% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.5° (0.7° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[MJO812]

53 here

[steve392]

4 degree drop since coming into work.  Sitting at 49 degrees in Kearny. 

[MANDA]

Decidedly October feel out there this morning.  Overnight low of 44 with a gusty NE wind.  Seems Summer has fallen off the cliff.

[SACRUS]

61 / 48 Northern Cal like marine flow feel NNE.   Upper 60s to low 70s today and then Friday the warmest day of the next 5 as we deal with the cut off ULL and coastal Fri night - Monday.  Beyond there overall warmer 9/29 - 10/5.  We'll see if the trough digs back after then or moderates to near normal by the 7th.

 

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[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 92 (2017)
NYC: 91 (2017)
LGA: 91 (2017)
JFK 92 (2017) 


Lows:

EWR: 40 (1950)
NYC: 40 (1963)
LGA; 44 (1974)
JFK: 40 (1963)

Historical:

 

 

1869: Heavy rain dumps nearly 10 inches on the White Earth Reservation, MN. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1888: The earliest frost of record hit the southern states, covering South Carolina, Georgia and, northern Florida. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1926 - The temperature at Yellowstone Park dipped to nine degrees below zero. It was the coldest reading of record in the U.S. during September. Severe freezes were widespread over the northwestern U.S. causing great crop destruction. In Washington State, Spokane County experienced their earliest snow of record. Harney Branch Experiment Station in Oregon reported a temperature of 2 degrees above zero to establish a state record for the month of September. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
 

1926: The temperature at Yellowstone Park drops to 9 degrees below zero, making it the coldest September reading ever recorded in the US.

1939: A thunderstorm on this day dropped 6.45 inches in six hours at Indio, CA. This rainfall preceded “El Cordonazo” or “The Lash of St. Francis”, an actual tropical storm. For the entire storm, which started on this day and ended on the 26th, four inches of rain fell across the deserts and mountains as a dying tropical cyclone moved across Baja California into southwestern Arizona. This storm was the second tropical cyclone to impact California during this month. A strong El Niño may have contributed to the activity. The tropical storm produced 50 mph winds over the ocean and estimated seas of 40 feet. September rain records were set in Los Angeles with 5.66 inches and 11.6 inches at Mt. Wilson. 45 people died from sinking boats, and harbors were damaged. Total damage was estimated at $2 million. Californians were unprepared and were alerted to their vulnerability to tropical storms. In response, the weather bureau established a forecast office for Southern California, which began operations in February of 1940.

1950 - A smoke pall from western Canada forest fires covered much of the eastern U.S. Daylight was reduced to nighttime darkness in parts of the Northeast. The color of the sun varied from pink to purple, blue, or lavendar. Yellow to grey-tan was common. (24th-30th) (The Weather Channel)

1956: Hurricane Flossy made landfall near Destin, Florida as a Category 1 storm. 

1972 - Lightning struck a man near Waldport, OR, a young man who it so happens was carrying thirty-five pieces of dynamite. (The Weather Channel)

1975: Remnants of Hurricane Eloise merge with a frontal system over Northeast, resulting in tremendous flooding. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1984: Behind a strong cold front, Bismarck, ND had a record early season snowfall of 5 inches, their heaviest September snowfall. Along with the snow came record cold temperatures across parts of the northern Rockies. Billings, MT recorded their coldest September temperature of 22° followed by an afternoon high of just 31°. Other daily record lows included: Sheridan, WY: 13° and Casper, WY: 22°. Ahead of the front, along with dramatically warmer temperatures, by as much as 40 degrees plus, upper level dynamics were in place for severe weather. Crawford and Vernon Counties in Wisconsin reported baseball sized hail and 3 inch diameter hail was reported in La Crosse County, Wisconsin with this same cluster of storms. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1986: An F2 tornado, unusually strong for one in California, touched down just southeast of Vina on this day and traveled two miles through an agricultural area. A mobile home was destroyed, injuring a 22-year-old occupant. Eleven other buildings were damaged or demolished, and 50 acres of walnut orchards were flattened.

1987 - The first full day of autumn proved to be a pleasant one for much of the nation, with sunny skies and mild temperatures. Thunderstorms again formed over Florida and the southwestern deserts, and also formed along a cold front in the northeastern U.S. A storm spotter at Earp CA sighted a couple of funnel clouds, one on the California side of the state line, and the other on the Arizona side. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms developing along a stationary front produced large hail and damaging winds in the southeastern U.S., with reports of severe weather most numerous in North Carolina. Golf ball size hail was reported at Tick Creek and a number of other locations in North Carolina. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Forty-seven cities between the Rockies and the Appalachians reported record low temperatures for the date. Lows of 38 degrees at Abilene TX, 34 degrees at Jackson KY, and 36 degrees at Midland TX established records for the month of September. The low of 36 degrees at Midland smashed their previous record for the date by thirteen degrees. Fayetteville AR and Springfield MO reported their earliest freeze of record. Thunderstorms produced torrential rains in northeastern Florida. Jacksonville was deluged with 11.40 inches of rain, and flash flooding resulted in two deaths. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2001: A weak, F0 tornado passed in the sight of the Washington Monument. Soon after, an F3 tornado struck College Park, Maryland.

 

2001: It was just 13 days after the 9/11 terrorist attack when the Emergency Action Notification System sounded in Washington, DC. Many people immediately thought the alert was for another attack, but it was actually for a tornado warning. The dramatic severe weather statement from the National Weather Service at Sterling, VA was that a tornado had been sighted near the Pentagon. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2005 - Early in the morning, major Hurricane Rita came ashore near the Texas/Louisiana border

 

2005: Early on the morning of September 24, 2005, Major Hurricane Rita came ashore near the Texas/Louisiana border. 

[SACRUS]

Wonder if there is a NNE flow 

 

[MarcmmKU]

Very warm start to october, with possible record minima.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be see clouds increase. The probability of a significant impact on the immediate New York City area from a strong nor'easter has increased overnight and during the day today.

Periods of wind-driven rain, some of which could be heavy are likely tomorrow night through the weekend. At present, New York City and nearby areas will likely see a storm total 1"-3" with locally higher amounts. Parts of Long Island could see 3"-5" of rain. Coastal erosion and flooding at high tide are likely. 

Some uncertainty still exists in terms of track and timing. However, it increasingly appears that the storm will be an impactful one. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool through the weekend with highs mainly in the lower and middle 60s. 
 
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.0°C for the week centered around September 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.73°C. Both ENSO regions have tied their all-time warmest anomalies. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. 

The SOI was -12.06 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.439 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 68% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.6° (0.6° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[SACRUS]

60 / 43 into the muck and awaiting a long duration cut off / ULL and subsequent costal storm.  Rain 1-3 maybe 4-5 inches in some areas.  Clears out by later Monday.  Overall much warmer 9/29 - 10/5 some late season 80s Wed-Fri.  beyond there near normal  10/6 - beyond.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 91 (1970)
NYC: 90 (1970)
LGA: 90 (2010)
JFK: 87 (2010)


Lows:

EWR: 39 (1950)
NYC: 40 (1887)
LGA: 42 (1950)
JFK: 45 (1989)

Historical:

 

1848 - The Great Gale of 1848 was the most severe hurricane to affect Tampa Bay, Florida and is one of two major hurricanes to make landfall in the area. This storm produced the highest storm tide ever experienced in Tampa Bay when the water rose 15 feet in six to eight hours.

1848: The Tampa, FL area was hit by a major hurricane. The pressure plunged to 28.18 inches of mercury and the storm surge reached 15 feet. The army post in the area was wiped out. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1926: The coldest temperature ever recorded in Scottsbluff, NE for the month of September occurred on this with a low of 14°, while Chadron, NE recorded their lowest September temperature with 15°. Western Yellowstone, MT recorded -9 °F which was then the lowest temperature reading in the 48 states for September. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)


1929: Willmar, MN experiences a deluge that dropped 5.22 inches of rain in 24 hours. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1939 - A west coast hurricane moved onshore south of Los Angeles bringing unprecedented rains along the southern coast of California. Nearly five and a half inches of rain drenched Los Angeles during a 24 hour period. The hurricane caused two million dollars damage, mostly to structures along the coast and to crops, and claimed 45 lives at sea. ""El Cordonazo"" produced 5.66 inches of rain at Los Angeles and 11.6 inches of rain at Mount Wilson, both records for the month of September. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)


1942: The earliest first trace of snow in Chicago occurred on this date in 1942 and 1928.  First snow of the season Average; October 30 Earliest; September 25 (1928 and 1942) Latest; December 5, 1999 First measurable snow (.1 inches or more) of the season Average; November 16 Earliest; October 12, 2006 Latest; December 16, 1965 Snow Trivia for Chicago - NWS

1953: The center of Hurricane Florence hit the northwest Florida coast between Valparaiso and Panama City near midday with wind maximum sustained winds near 80 mph with gusts to 90 mph and heavy rainfall. The Pensacola Weather Bureau Office reported winds of up to 75 mph early the next morning. The storm passed inland over a sparsely settled area of Florida and this probably accounts for the rather small amount of damage. In Franklin and Okaloosa Counties the Red Cross estimated that 273 homes were destroyed, 145 other buildings damaged, and three destroyed. A fishing trawler, the "Miss Tampa" was reported missing in the storm's wake. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1962: The remnants of Tropical Storm Claudia of 1962 dumped up to 7 inches of rain in the desert west of Tucson, AZ, causing severe flooding. By the year 2010 there had already been six storms by the name of Claudia. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1975: On September 25 and 26 Elloise gave Hayfield secondary School 5.58 inches rain that closed Fairfax County schools September 26th 1975. The remnants of Hurricane Eloise combined with a cold front and produced very heavy rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic. Washington, DC reported 9.08" of rainfall. Total damage for Virginia was estimated to be $17.2 million. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1976: Up to 3 inches of rain fell on Tucson, Arizona. About a dozen cars, some occupied, were swept down the washes, resulting in one death. Two boys were carried down the Rillito River for a mile before they could reach ground after their car was swept away. Talk about lucky! (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1984: Sheridan, WY recorded their coldest September temperature on record when they fell to 6°. 21 inches of snow fell at Sheridan between the 23rd and the 27th. This made it their snowiest September on record. Other record lows included: Cheyenne, WY: 17°, Casper, WY: 20° and Rapid City, SD: 24°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1987 - Hurricane Emily crossed the island of Bermuda during the early morning. Emily, moving northeast at 45 mph, produced wind gusts to 115 mph at Kindley Field. The thirty-five million dollars damage inflicted by Emily made it the worst hurricane to strike Bermuda since 1948. Parts of Michigan and Wisconsin experienced their first freeze of the autumn. Snow and sleet were reported in the Sheffield and Sutton areas of northeastern Vermont at midday. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Low pressure off the Northern Pacific Coast brought rain and gale force winds to the coast of Washington State. Fair weather prevailed across most of the rest of the nation. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Twenty-three cities in the south central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Topeka KS with a reading of 33 degrees, and Binghamton NY with a low of 25 degrees. Showers and thunderstorms in the southeastern U.S. drenched Atlanta GA with 4.87 inches of rain, their sixth highest total of record for any given day. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1993: In both human and economic terms the Great Flood of 1993 was the most devastating in modern U.S. history. It was a catastrophe across portions of 9 states with losses estimated up to $20 billion dollars. Over 50,000 homes were damaged or destroyed forcing the evacuation of some 54,000 people. In all the floods took 50 lives. Water level records were set at 49 places on the Missouri River system and at 43 places on the upper Mississippi River system. The flood was notable for its duration as well as its size. Flooding began in March with record floods beginning in May and continued into September. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1994: Hail to 1 inch diameter was pounding Hebron, NE. A man ventured out into the storm to release a dog tied to a tree. Lightning killed the man and injured a woman at the scene. The dog was unhurt. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

1996: An early season snowstorm brought the season’s first snow to the Front Range eastern foothills in northern Colorado. Heavy snowfall totals included: 8 to 12 inches near Conifer, 7 inches at Floyd Hill, 6 inches at Bailey & Chief Hosa and 4.7 inches at Denver.
Heavy rain fell in the Blackwell area of north-central Oklahoma beginning the previous day through this date, causing many roads to be closed. National Weather Service radar estimated that more than three inches of rain fell in less than 90 minutes in central Kay County, late in the evening. The two day rainfall in Blackwell totaled 9 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1998: By the 5 PM ET advisory, 4 hurricanes were spinning simultaneously in the Atlantic basin: Georges, Ivan, Jeanne, and Karl. That was the first time this had happened since 1893. After moving along the north coast of Cuba the previous day, Georges crossed the Florida Keys, heading into the Gulf of Mexico. The storm had re-intensified with winds of 105 mph when it made landfall near Key West, FL midday. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1998 - Four hurricanes were spinning simultaneously in the Atlantic basin: Georges, Ivan, Jeanne, and Karl. That was the first time this had happened since 1893.

2004: Jeanne after performing a complete loop over the open Atlantic, it headed westwards, strengthening into a Category 3 hurricane. Jeanne passed over the islands of Great Abaco and Grand Bahama in the Bahamas on September 25. Jeanne made landfall later in the day of the 25th in Florida just 2 miles (3 kilometers) from where Frances had struck 3 weeks earlier. Building on the rainfall of Frances and Ivan, Jeanne brought near-record flood levels as far north as West Virginia and New Jersey before its remnants turned east into the open Atlantic. Jeanne is blamed for at least 3,006 deaths in Haiti with about 2,800 in Gonaïves alone, which was nearly washed away by floods and mudslides. The storm also caused 7 deaths in Puerto Rico, 18 in the Dominican Republic and at least 4 in Florida, bringing the total number of deaths to at least 3,025. Final property damage in the United States was $6.8 billion, making this the 13th costliest hurricane in U.S. history. Hurricane Jeanne's Track - Weather Underground (Ref. More on Hurricane Jeanne)

[SACRUS]

Coastal deluge on the ne coast otherwise most rain is west and / nations middle

 

[SACRUS]

Some pokes of sun here , mostly sunny just west / north

 

[NEG NAO]

[SACRUS]

Spinning wheel

 

[SACRUS]

Wall of rain offshore