GaWx Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago Invest 91L will be investigated by recon today. NHC chances in TWO now very high: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (AL91): An area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of America continues to become better defined and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually increasing. Continued gradual development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form later today or on Monday as the system moves slowly northward or northwestward. Interests along the northern Gulf coast from Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area later today. In addition, this system is expected to bring heavy rains to portions of the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low pressure area later today.* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi —————— -Last 5 full (0Z/12Z) UKMET runs, the most consistently enthusiastic of the globals, have had a TS from this moving toward W GOM/LA/TX. -Icon also has been hinting at this for several days with some runs having a TC -0Z Euro was first run with a TC with it near borderline TS S of W FL panhandle 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 22 hours ago Author Share Posted 22 hours ago NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two (formerly AL91) located over the Gulf of America, at 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC) Please pin this @buckeyefan1or other mod. TIA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 21 hours ago Author Share Posted 21 hours ago TD2 advisories to be initiated at 11AM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.0N 85.3W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Florida from Ochlockonee River to the Alabama border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Ochlockonee River to the FL/AL border A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 36 to 48 hours. Additional watches will likely be required over the next day or two. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 85.3 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h) and a slow northwestward or north-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two, followed by a turn toward the west. On the forecast track, the depression will move near or along the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or on Monday. The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka, FL...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher totals around 8 inches through Thursday along the eastern and central Gulf Coast from western Florida to southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. This rainfall may produce areas of flash flooding, especially in urban areas. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Two, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 The area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring in the northeastern Gulf of America during the past few days has now developed a well-defined low-level circulation. The convective activity remains patchy, likely due to intrusions of dry air from its northeast, but there is enough persistent convection near the center and in bands on its northeast and southwest sides to justify this system as a tropical depression. The circulation is sprawling and still weak, however. Based on surface observations and earlier ASCAT data, the initial intensity is set at 25 kt and the minimum pressure is 1011 mb. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this system later today, and their data will be helpful to better assess the system’s initial structure. The initial motion of the system is difficult to know since it has only recently become well defined, but our best guess is north-northwestward at 3 kt. The system is currently caught in weak steering currents between a ridge over the western Atlantic, another ridge over the south-central and southwestern U.S., and a trough over the northeast U.S. This pattern should take the cyclone slowly northwestward through Monday night, and the system will likely be close enough to the Florida Panhandle to bring the potential for tropical storm conditions there. After that time, a turn to the west or west-northwest seems to be the most likely scenario as the ridge over the southern U.S. builds eastward, taking the system near or across the Gulf coast during the middle and latter portions of the week. The NHC track forecast lies a touch to the south of middle of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the usually best-performing aids HCCA, TVCN, and GDMI. The sprawling nature of the system, nearby dry air, and some northeasterly vertical wind shear suggest that any strengthening should be slow to occur, especially in the short term. Nonetheless, the system is expected to become a tropical storm as it approaches the Florida Panhandle during the next day or two. There seems to be a better opportunity for the system to strengthen once it turns westward, however, the amount of strengthening will be dependent on how far offshore the circulation is. The NHC track forecast lies toward the upper end of the model guidance, however, there is a low amount of confidence given the uncertainty of how much land interaction will take place. Key Messages: 1. The depression is expected to gradually strengthen and could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Florida Panhandle, where a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued. 2. Interests in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas should monitor the progress of this system, as watches could be required for portions of that area over the next day or two. 3. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Thursday along the eastern and central Gulf Coast from western Florida to southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 28.0N 85.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 28.2N 85.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 28.5N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 28.8N 86.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 29.1N 86.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 29.4N 87.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 29.7N 88.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 29.5N 91.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 29.7N 95.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago Kudos to the UKMET. Especially with the eventual westward component that it started suggesting before anything else. A few days ago, the ensembles latched onto taking the feature into the WATL. I was confident of that as well. But confidence means little in the early stages of a disorganized system caught between several dominant features and weak steering currents that are not fully resolved.Now, we have to see how convection evolves with the overall broader surface low. If a smaller vorticity becomes dominant, location if where that occurs will be critical to how long this system remains over water versus the gradual westward turn. Regardless, it looks like copius rainfall is on the menu for the Panhandle/So. Alabama, MS, and LA. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago I'll also say this is a big, big win for AI guidance, especially Euro AI and Euro AI ensembles. It identified the window and also latched onto a more western track early on. I continue to be highly impressed by AI sniffing out windows in marginal conditions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago Not time to do an analysis but I want to note that the intensity trend was increasing before the designation on some ensemble guidance, including quite an outlier on the EPS. If this stays further south there is a window more more modest development as it moves toward the western Gulf. But we'll see what recon finds and get that data assimilated so hurricane models and other guidance can get a better sense of things. Seeing GDM with some modest members is very interesting. Note sure what the EPS sees but let's see if 12z is similar. I think the NHC opening with a 60mph landfall with land interaction forecast should tell us this has potential. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 19 hours ago Author Share Posted 19 hours ago 12Z UKMET: 6th run in row with TS but dissipates off TX TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02L ANALYSED POSITION : 27.1N 85.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 19.07.2026 0 27.1N 85.2W 1012 22 0000UTC 20.07.2026 12 27.9N 84.9W 1009 22 1200UTC 20.07.2026 24 27.6N 85.5W 1008 27 0000UTC 21.07.2026 36 28.2N 85.5W 1005 30 1200UTC 21.07.2026 48 28.8N 85.7W 1004 35 0000UTC 22.07.2026 60 29.3N 86.0W 1003 35 1200UTC 22.07.2026 72 29.4N 87.1W 1004 46 0000UTC 23.07.2026 84 29.2N 88.2W 1004 40 1200UTC 23.07.2026 96 28.0N 90.7W 1002 48 0000UTC 24.07.2026 108 28.1N 93.9W 1005 33 1200UTC 24.07.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago Recon is out there now and no surprise there is a well defined LLC. Should help with future modeling. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago I am jumping the gun a bit, but also realize once Bertha gets named my silliness is way less acceptable here. LOL TS Two conditions here in Gulfport FL is a nice breeze, beautifully wet, and the most comfortable weather outside in a good while. Thank you Bertha even if you don't get named! 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Recon shows TD2 meandering with not much change in organization. Going to take time for meaningful intensification but ensembles are still bullish **if** the LLC can stay south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 400 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 The depression has generally changed little over the past several hours. The circulation remains well organized, and deep convection is gradually increasing near the center and in bands. An ASCAT pass from around 15Z showed peak winds of around 25 kt, and data from the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft show winds of about that same value. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 25 kt for this advisory. The depression remains rather large and somewhat diffuse, with the associated shower activity covering much of the eastern Gulf. The system has barely moved today. In fact, it has drifted southeastward over the past few hours. This slow motion is due to very weak steering currents, with the depression currently caught between a ridge over the western Atlantic, another ridge over the south-central and southwestern U.S., and a trough over the northeast U.S. Most of the models show the cyclone drifting northwestward over the next couple of days, and its outer bands could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Florida Panhandle beginning late Monday. A turn to the west or west-northwest is likely on Tuesday as the ridge over the U.S. builds eastward and becomes the primary steering feature. That motion should take the system along or just offshore of the northern Gulf coast during the middle and latter portions of the week. The NHC track forecast has been shifted a bit to the south, in best agreement with the usually best-performing aids HCCA, TVCN, and GDMI. The depression is expected to only slowly strengthen, especially in the short term, due to its sprawling structure, nearby dry air, and northeasterly vertical wind shear. Nonetheless, the system is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday when it is offshore of the Florida Panhandle. The shear could briefly let up during the middle of the week, and if the system is still over water at that time, it could strengthen some more. There remains a large spread in the model solutions that range from the system remaining a tropical depression to even becoming a hurricane. Given the mixed environmental conditions and some expected land interaction, the NHC intensity forecast lies between those solutions, but leans closer to the upper end of the guidance. However, it is worth emphasizing that the intensity forecast is of low confidence given the uncertainty of how much land the system will interact with. Key Messages: 1. The depression is expected to gradually strengthen and could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Florida Panhandle beginning late Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect, 2. Interests in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas should monitor the progress of this system, as watches could be required for portions of that area over the next day or two. 3. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Thursday along the eastern and central Gulf Coast from western Florida to southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 27.5N 85.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 27.9N 85.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 28.2N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 28.5N 86.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 28.9N 86.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 22/0600Z 29.2N 87.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 29.4N 88.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 29.2N 91.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 29.3N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 7 hours ago Author Share Posted 7 hours ago For the first time in 7 runs, the UKMET doesn’t have a TS from this: it dissipates in the NW GOM similarly to the prior run TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.0N 84.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 20.07.2026 0 28.0N 84.9W 1009 23 1200UTC 20.07.2026 12 28.5N 85.5W 1008 22 0000UTC 21.07.2026 24 28.3N 85.7W 1006 27 1200UTC 21.07.2026 36 28.9N 85.6W 1005 32 0000UTC 22.07.2026 48 29.7N 86.1W 1005 31 1200UTC 22.07.2026 60 30.3N 86.8W 1008 28 0000UTC 23.07.2026 72 CEASED TRACKING NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 28.5N 90.9W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 23.07.2026 84 28.5N 90.9W 1009 25 0000UTC 24.07.2026 96 28.7N 91.7W 1010 24 1200UTC 24.07.2026 108 28.8N 93.4W 1012 28 0000UTC 25.07.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago While there is typically relatively high uncertainty for nascent, not well defined systems, I agree with NHC and posters here that the uncertainty here is unusually high due to the forecast coast-parallel track and the strong dependence of the track later this week on how quickly future Bertha gets organized in the next day or two. I go into the potential scenarios and all of the details here: https://hurricanehacker.substack.com/p/tropical-storm-bertha-likely-to-form?r=etzas 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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