Hoisting the Sultan Signal: Heavy Rain Event July 5-7

[vortex95]

12 hours ago, SouthCoastMA said:

 

"son, we have typhoon Bavi at home" - ineedsnow's parents

Nice li'l tight/coherent wrap up.  Models showed this well.  Don't always need a deep sfc coastal low for "fun 'n games!"

[vortex95]

12 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s been dumping that heavy , soaking small droplet rain all day. Has not stopped. . I ran in it this morning and it just keeps building overhead. The stuff adds up. No one could have seen or forecast that . It’s probably similar to the soaking upslope rains you get all the time. I’m not exactly sure, but I’d bet there’s some small scale upslope component to this stuff today 

Yes, you could clearly see two level of pcpn on radar, low and high, moving in different directions and overlapping, which likely lead to the dense small drops (super "sheet" drizzle?).  Almost like warm process rain but w/ more baroclinicity.

[vortex95]

15 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

The amount of hype going around on this was insane. This was going to be nothing more but a much needed soaking rain for many...that is it. All these posts about models showing widespread 4-8" of rain, which by the way were showing jackpots across northwest CT and north when the axis of highest rains which much farther south which was mentioned of likely occurring. All this talk everywhere about flooding rains and blah blah. Steady soaking rain with a widespread 1-3" and of course some 3-6" amounts south where the axis ended up being....and of course spread out over a long duration. I mean were there even any flash flood warnings lol (maybe 1?).

One of the most overhyped rain events ever. Nothing more than a soaking rain but I guess since how everyone thinks we're a desert now 3-4" is alarming 

Even if it was 4-8" widespread, it still would not have been that bad overall b/c it was going to be spread out and most importantly, very dry antecedent conditions overall across SNE!

So much of the MSM and hype masters have no clue, or do know, but ignore b/c deflates hype.  They think "one-size-fits-all" and the one size is always means the worst.  That's now how the wx works and we can do much better now due to improved modeling and understanding of the wx.  There is no effort to quantify or scale wx events anyone -- again, it's always "the worst." 

So you see my overall critical position on how wx is treated in general is not w/o merit.

This rain was very beneficial and we needed it, but that is good news and doesn't sell.

[vortex95]

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Pillaging rains and winds. 
 

One thing that worked out, were the dynamics. Enough moisture transport and even deformation to help wring out precip from processes helping with efficient droplet production.  I’ve seen that fail so I definitely underestimated that!

What happened to your warm front *absolutely* needed for the big R+ in a summer month?    Nor'easter is still a nor'easter in July.  Only difference is that they are weaker and smaller, but much higher PWATs tend to compensate to give solid QPF.

The OER was neat to see today streaming in from the due E!

[vortex95]

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Man big fat L from me this morning. 00z euro wasn’t far off.

Sorry, I couldn't resist! 

 

[vortex95]

3 hours ago, kdxken said:

Total fail by Stein. Quirking and likable but not sure he's the best meteorologist. Gave up after a quarter inch overnight. Said we might get showers during the day but not nearly enough. Nearly 3 inches later....

 

Sounds like damage control in link title  --"not nearly the rainfall we need."  Ok, who ever said it would be enough?  The point is we got a solid widespread rain event.  You have to start somewhere to come out of drought conditions.  Geez, wx does not work in nice, neat, even increments and balances out 1-1 when talking short periods of time.

A case of you can look at the glass half-full or empty (yes, the pun is there but not intentional!).

[CoastalWx]

5 hours ago, vortex95 said:

What happened to your warm front *absolutely* needed for the big R+ in a summer month?    Nor'easter is still a nor'easter in July.  Only difference is that they are weaker and smaller, but much higher PWATs tend to compensate to give solid QPF.

The OER was neat to see today streaming in from the due E!

Well I was correct there. Look at srn CT to FMH. That’s where the fun was.

[kdxken]

The 2.75 inches yesterday appears to be the largest rainfall since December 2023. Even that was over a 2 day period. Used AI so it might not be 100% correct. Soaker for sure.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2.64