Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[Weather Will]

Every couple of weeks will post the latest WB CFSV2 30 day monthly anomaly maps.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I wish lol. You have to wonder why these models are so bad

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

BWI's average high on Xmas since 2015 is 52.  December has been the month impacted the most by warming.  The fact that SST's have warmed impacts the start of winter due to lag in water temps cooling.  This has been documented...someone published monthly snowfall changes over the last 50 years and our area was the worst shade for December.  January to March has been less impacted.  Most of our decrease in snowfall climo has come from losing early in the season.  It is what it is.  

February has by far been the worst if you narrow it down to since 2018. 

For some reason there has been incredible -PNA tendency in Feb and March for the last 9 years. Not to mention 13 straight +NAO Feb's, with 10/13 being >1.00! Take the indexes out and I agree December has been the GW month

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Every couple of weeks will post the latest WB CFSV2 30 day monthly anomaly maps.

WB CFSv2 temp maps:

1. Have algo issues that lead to bad artifacts. I’ve posted on this here in the past. Here are some examples

-note the cold spot over S Lake Michigan and warm spot only 250 miles to the north over N Lake Michigan that are almost always on these WB maps; the real CFSv2 output essentially never has these

-note the E coast down to FL usually looks like a thin sharp warm barrier to any colder anomalies to the west; again, this essentially never is on the real output

2. WB CFSv2 maps are strongly cold biased for much of the E US. And this is the case even with WB using the colder 1981-2010 climo instead of 1991-2010, which the CFSv2 site uses! All one has to do to know this is to compare to the maps at the CFSv2 site.
 

 All 4 (DJFM) are notably too cold in almost all of the area away from the E coast. But I’ll focus on the Dec map to illustrate the strong cold bias:

-Chicago’s +0.5C/1F vs 1981-2010 on WB but the CFS site’s relevant 10 day mean maps (see below) are all significantly warmer and they average +2.25C/4F vs the warmer 1991-2020 meaning WB is ~4F too cold.

-SL’s 0.0 C/F vs 1981-2010 on WB but CFS actual maps are all significantly warmer and average +1.5C/3F vs 1991-2020 meaning WB is ~4F too cold

-Knoxville’s -1C/-2F vs 1981-2010 on WB but CFS actual maps have it at +0.6C/+1F vs 1991-2020 meaning WB’s ~4F too cold

-Despite the CFS site’s maps averaging AN from TN-NC north, WB in inland areas doesn’t have AN start til 500 miles to the N in N IL to N OH to NW PA and that’s even vs a colder climo base! That’s ignoring the immediate E coast, which has its own problems as already noted and is actually a bit too warm overall despite it being 4F too cold for much of the inland areas!

Relevant 10 day mean Dec maps at CFSv2 site:

9/10-19:

 

8/31-9/9:

 

8/21-30:

 

8/12-21:

@Stormchaserchuck1@donsutherland1

[Stormchaserchuck1]

A big issue I see with the CFS is, with the Winter 500mb pattern being modeled over the N. Pacific, you aren't going to get that strong of an East Coast trough. Since 2016 the Pacific has held much more weight than the NAO. Then again as I already mentioned in this thread, in 2024 and 2025 I saw runs of the CFS having -38F anomalies in the NW, US for the whole month of December! Can you believe they ended up well above average? 

[bncho]

5 hours ago, mitchnick said:

On a related note, a met from the NE forum put together a snow storm archive of winters going back to 92/93. It is NE centric, but plenty of radars and maps that include the Conus and MA region. Here's a link if interested, assuming it hasn't already been posted.

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/storm-archive

This winter, all it will take is one storm.