Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[Ji]

Crazy that 23-24 Winter had an overall -AO DJFM in the mean, with 3/4 months negative. Was the warmest Winter on record for US
Actually since 22-23 every Winter Dec-Mar in the mean has been -ao, albeit slightly. 

Canada was so torched no indices seemed to matter

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Let's hope the SE Canada ridge doesn't build in October like it did in 2023

CPC's October forecast released today

[mitchnick]

7 hours ago, Ji said:

You were in high school in what year?

Hey, at least it was 1972-1976 and not 1872-1876. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Let's hope the SE Canada ridge doesn't build in October like it did in 2023

CPC's October forecast released today

Looks a lot like it save for the deep se/FL.

[Ji]

I found some of the euro seasonal stuff from Fall 2023 for that winter.

[Ji]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

I found some of the euro seasonal stuff from Fall 2023 for that winter.

[forkyfork]

 

[mitchnick]

20 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

 

Surprised you didn't post this snowfall map posted in the NE forum that shows AN snowfall in a good part of the Mid Atlantic. You commented on it in the NE forum. 

[forkyfork]

that map means nothing without the years listed

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

that map means nothing without the years listed

It didn't stop you from commenting in the NE forum, nor did you question it. Lol

[forkyfork]

40 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

You commented on it in the NE forum. 

no i did not

[Benjamn3]

Super El Niño this analog year that, anymore…

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 hours ago, Ji said:

I found some of the euro seasonal stuff from Fall 2023 for that winter.

Look at how bad it did south of the Aleutian islands

That's why seasonal models showing a -200dm +PNA this Feb I don't think will be right. The pattern hasn't been happening recently. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 hours ago, Ji said:

I found some of the euro seasonal stuff from Fall 2023 for that winter.

 

Just brutal

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

 

Just brutal

Don't forget the Euro was too warm with its 24/25 & 25/26 forecasts for the east. So if anyone is betting on the Euro for this year, it'll probably be more based on odds than getting the met right.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Don't forget the Euro was too warm with its 24/25 & 25/26 forecasts for the east. So if anyone is betting on the Euro for this year, it'll probably be more based on odds than getting the met right.

Yeah nice opposite correlation the last 3 years lol. Meanwhile the CANSIPS can't even get days 1-5 right. 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Don't forget the Euro was too warm with its 24/25 & 25/26 forecasts for the east. So if anyone is betting on the Euro for this year, it'll probably be more based on odds than getting the met right.

Chuck is in negative Nancy mode. His usual state. He swings like a pendulum lately though.

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Don't forget the Euro was too warm with its 24/25 & 25/26 forecasts for the east. So if anyone is betting on the Euro for this year, it'll probably be more based on odds than getting the met right.

Like I told you before, it's not going to be too warm under the ridge, which will be over se Canada this year...it was over the SW US the past two seasons. Apples and oranges to compare it this year.

[mitchnick]

39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Like I told you before, it's not going to be too warm under the ridge, which will be over se Canada this year...it was over the SW US the past two seasons. Apples and oranges to compare it this year.

Welllllll, maybe, maybe not. No doubt the ridge in eastern Canada is the wild card, but there are ridges across the globe and there's no guarantee the one in se Canada will be too warm or that it won't be centered further north. And exactly how it morphs over the season will obviously have something to say about it, as I  think we both agree it will become more forgiving after December. That said, I still don't hold much hope for December simply due to climo.

P.s Just so that you understand my pov, I  don't care about monthly temps, only snowfall. And we can squeeze a storm out of a warm month.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

We have been in a pattern in Feb-March since 2018 - easily the most +dm on record for a 8-year consecutive period. It will be really interesting to see how this Winter goes in Feb-March in the PNA region - models have like -150dm. My guess would be closer to neutral. 

[George001]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Like I told you before, it's not going to be too warm under the ridge, which will be over se Canada this year...it was over the SW US the past two seasons. Apples and oranges to compare it this year.

I would bet on the following winter being way better. I would much rather roll the dice with a La Niña, even a strong one than this super Nino bullshit. I like it when Canada is frigid.

[bncho]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We have been in a pattern in Feb-March since 2018 - easily the most +dm on record for a 8-year consecutive period. It will be really interesting to see how this Winter goes in Feb-March in the PNA region - models have like -150dm. My guess would be closer to neutral. 

yeah i don't buy that -PNA in a super nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, bncho said:

yeah i don't buy that -PNA in a super nino

I will bet anyone $5,000 right now that DJFM will average +PNA....now, maybe guidance overdoes it, or the placement/orientation is less than ideal...different argument.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Welllllll, maybe, maybe not. No doubt the ridge in eastern Canada is the wild card, but there are ridges across the globe and there's no guarantee the one in se Canada will be too warm or that it won't be centered further north. And exactly how it morphs over the season will obviously have something to say about it, as I  think we both agree it will become more forgiving after December. That said, I still don't hold much hope for December simply due to climo.

P.s Just so that you understand my pov, I  don't care about monthly temps, only snowfall. And we can squeeze a storm out of a warm month.

Yes, me, too....but there is no way the EURO will be too warm under that ridge...the pattern in this era of accelerated CC, the correction vector for seasonal guidance has been warmer underneath the ridges, which is why I was saying that...it's not some random, arbitrary guess. The model doesn't have much of a shot of busting cold anywhere nowadays, and if it does, it isn't going to under the ridge.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Closer to neutral doesn't mean -PNA but there is a tendency in those two months. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I will bet anyone $5,000 right now that DJFM will average +PNA....now, maybe guidance overdoes it, or the placement/orientation is less than ideal...different argument.

CPC's PNA index is a little weird, DJFM 23-24 was 4/4 +PNA months, totaling +2 and the overal H5 for it was a +45dm ridge south of the Aleutian islands... kind of a big difference. In Jan 2025 there was a +200dm ridge and they were saying it was +PNA. 

[bncho]

24 minutes ago, bncho said: