Noah get the boat, the wet pattern begins. Late May/June 2026 Medium/Long Range

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Also, Apr-May 2026 SOI will be the lowest 2-month SOI since Apr 2016.. Already the Strongest Nino in 10 years. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

August is a big test month for how the El Nino is propagating to the mid latitudes

June-August has decent correlation numbers

CPC is going with no below average at all on their Summer forecast maps.. let's see if the warmth wins out, like they are forecasting

[frd]

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Still haven't had a thunderstorm here this year, unless I missed one. 2023 it wasn't until June 24th. Over the last few years/decades, our storm season has moved away from Spring, and more into Summer. 

[frd]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Still haven't had a thunderstorm here this year, unless I missed one. 2023 it wasn't until June 24th. Over the last few years/decades, our storm season has moved away from Spring, and more into Summer. 

More active pattern as we near mid-June possibly. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

56 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Still haven't had a thunderstorm here this year, unless I missed one. 2023 it wasn't until June 24th. Over the last few years/decades, our storm season has moved away from Spring, and more into Summer. 

There must be a localized force field for you. My first storm was in March.

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, frd said:

Not sure about that dude. And he used the word 'risk' twice in one sentence.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO.  Quiet, dry work week ahead with heat slowly building back in with Friday in the low 90s.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS for 2nd week of June.  Summer returns with above normal temps. Precipitation normal to slightly above.

[Weather Will]

WB latest Euro weeklies for mid June to mid July.  Amazing how fast time flies already posting thru mid summer...

[frd]

https://x.com/webberweather/status/2061163954496237618

Eric Webb

 

@webberweather

 

 

This is probably the biggest Pacific Jet extension I’ve ever seen in June & it isn’t surprising to see as we discussed several days ago. Buckle up…

 

Eric Webb

 

@webberweather

 

 

All the ingredients are there for a gigantic Pacific Jet extension later in week 2 & 3, which should lead to a more favorable pattern for tornadoes by mid-June:  Kara Sea ridge >> East Asia cold shot  Mei-Yu front south of Japan  Pacific MJO event  Developing Super El Niño

[frd]

19 hours ago, CAPE said:

Not sure about that dude. And he used the word 'risk' twice in one sentence.

I even take normal.

 

[frd]

Looking beyond days 8 to 14 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12z EPS really warmed up over the region, for pretty much the first half of June!

[frd]

53 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

12z EPS really warmed up over the region, for pretty much the first half of June!

Warmest weather relative to seasonal averages in June and early July, then we trend down in later July and August. Wishful thinking, or possible outcome with the El Nino coupling faster than expected. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

El Nino isn't coupling with PNA or the North Pacific High so far. -PDO hit some lowest monthly numbers in 150 years, over the last few years. Interesting battle this Summer.