Winter 2026-2027 Speculation

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Wierd.. why would the NAO be negative all of a sudden? It hasn't been negative in 14 years, and this is the ripe +year time after Solar Max and strong +QBO.. not saying it's impossible but I think they are displacing the El Nino N. American ridge.

All of the seasonals are doing it...UK, JMA and CANSIPS, too....I take it as obviously overdone, but support for some second half volatility.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

53 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All of the seasonal are going it...UK, JMA and CANSIPS, too....I take it as obviously overdone, but support for some second half volatility.

Maybe we can do a Jan 2024-like -NAO

I do think there will be mean H5 ridging 60-90N this Winter. I'd give the odds of that happening at like 90%. May-Sept SLP 60-90N reverse for the Winter every time since 2012.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Maybe we can do a Jan 2024-like -NAO

I do think there will be mean H5 ridging 60-90N this Winter. I'd give the odds of that happening at like 90%. May-Sept SLP 60-90N reverse for the Winter every time since 2012.

Like you said, forget -NAO in the seasonal mean like guidance tries to do...no argument there....but I do think it lends support to the notion of some second half interludes of -NAO.

[George001]

On 9/18/2026 at 11:47 AM, michsnowfreak said:

Yes. Typically nina is much better than nino here. But the wet signal is so strong in the east that further "west" here in eastern Michigan there is not the usual dry signal for ninos. Models range from average precip to above average depending on model. 

Weather forums have a wide range of weather enthusiasts so theres lots of different preferences. Last winter was great for me. Cold, white and frozen, a winter lovers dream. I already know thats not happening this time, so thats immediately a knock down of expectation for me. But if you're north of 40N and think you can go nearly 6 months from November thru April with hardly any snow, good luck!

The bright side of this nino event is historically after strong and super ninos they collapse into La Niña, and often multi year Nina events. 

[forkyfork]

On 9/20/2026 at 11:23 AM, forkyfork said:

yeah, i had a few below average days in winter 1998

you are all free to tell me why this isn't likely to be a warmer version of 1998

[roardog]

38 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

you are all free to tell me why this isn't likely to be a warmer version of 1998

If only the atmosphere was that simple and long range forecasting was that easy. 

[forkyfork]

19 minutes ago, roardog said:

If only the atmosphere was that simple and long range forecasting was that easy. 

this is a stronger and even more east based event than 1998 and we have 30 years of warming on top of our base state

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, George001 said:

The bright side of this nino event is historically after strong and super ninos they collapse into La Niña, and often multi year Nina events. 

Yes I am looking forward to that. Ninas arent always perfect, but they usually bring a good winter here.

[michsnowfreak]

29 minutes ago, roardog said:

If only the atmosphere was that simple and long range forecasting was that easy. 

While milder than avg winter is a given (2 colder than avg winters followed by a strong El Nino, no way its not), snowfall and precip remains the wildcard. If I am not mistaken, your area got a lot of snow in 2015-16. That was a crazy year where snowfall ranged from slightly below avg in Detroit to slightly above in the northern burbs to well above in Flint. My first guess for Detroit for 2026-27 is 33". Im taking the middle ground of strong Nino snowfall and will adjust if anything becomes more clear once winter begins.

EDIT- I thought this was the main thread, then realized it was the New England one lol. The wet signal in the east is crazy. Makes you think that well inland will really pile up the snow numbers by April even if there are a lot of mix events and not the best snowcover.

[roardog]

2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

While milder than avg winter is a given (2 colder than avg winters followed by a strong El Nino, no way its not), snowfall and precip remains the wildcard. If I am not mistaken, your area got a lot of snow in 2015-16. That was a crazy year where snowfall ranged from slightly below avg in Detroit to slightly above in the northern burbs to well above in Flint. My first guess for Detroit for 2026-27 is 33". Im taking the middle ground of strong Nino snowfall and will adjust if anything becomes more clear once winter begins.

Yeah we had some big 32 degree snowstorms in 2015-2016. I know we’re in an east coast thread right now so even if the mean temp ends up higher than 97-98, it doesn’t mean the east coast can’t get a massive event with just enough cold air if the timing is right. This is what I mean by saying you can’t just look at 97-98 and say it’s going to be a duplicate winter and expect little to snow on the east coast because of it. Like I said, the atmosphere isn’t that simple.