2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[wdrag]

23 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

18z RRFS model really cranking the “non-tropical” storm off the Mid-Atlantic this weekend and even has it make “landfall” over Delaware Bay. Will be very interesting to track


.

looks understated to me wind/wind damage, CF, excessive rainfall for this pattern (NJ/LI, sCT).  NBM very conservative.

[NorthHillsWx]

Fay looks like it’s trying. Kinda like its first bout with flirting with hurricane intensity, about an 18 hour window this go round before the shear arrives 

[vortex95]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Fay looks like it’s trying. Kinda like its first bout with flirting with hurricane intensity, about an 18 hour window this go round before the shear arrives 

Odd sucker!  Just go to shows the true vagaries of these things.

[vortex95]

3 hours ago, AccuChris said:

18z RRFS model really cranking the “non-tropical” storm off the Mid-Atlantic this weekend and even has it make “landfall” over Delaware Bay. Will be very interesting to track


.

Given the RRFS is new, I don't know how it handles TCs.  I asked the modeling group if it handles TCs well.  They said it should, but they said ti defer to the HAFS and the like.  This event will be a good test ast least when it comes to ET to ST/T transition.

The RRFS is about 10 mb deeper than the other models, and shows a tight inner core pressure gradient eventually.  That indicates tropical structure.

[vortex95]

This is a much "warmer" type ET to ST/T suggested transition.  The ET surface low has developed in a more tropical-type atmosphere.  As noted earlier, the low is located S of the 576 dm 1000-500 thickness line, and as it develops, a pool of 576 closes off over it.

Also, initial ET development to ET peak to ST/T transition can occur very quickly at times. The system off the Mid-Atlantic/New England coasts in mid-January 2023 went ET to ST rather fast (personally I think this was tropical and a hurricane), developing a distinct, persistent eye and remarkably deep convection for a winter atmosphere.  See sat loops here:
https://x.com/WxTca/status/1615532584016162822
https://x.com/burgwx/status/1615099242728628231
 

If this can occur in January, there is no reason to think this can not occur here in September over significantly warmer SSTs and a less overall sharp baroclinic environment!
 

The point being extraordinary/outlier patterns often result in  extraordinary/outlier individual wx events, so we need to  adjust/adapt for that and think outside the box in such cases.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Fay looks like it’s trying. Kinda like its first bout with flirting with hurricane intensity, about an 18 hour window this go round before the shear arrives 

Latest microwave for Fay. It has another window to do something. We'll see if the second time's the charm. 

[GaWx]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072026
200 AM CVT Fri Sep 25 2026

...TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORMS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM CVT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 22.1W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Cabo Verde Islands has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning for all of the Cabo Verde Islands.

[vortex95]

00z HRRR shows the E Coast low taking on more ST characterists 40-48 hr as a inner core contracted wind field develops.  RRFS it take over 24 hr longer to do this.

 

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET: Fay still around at 168 moving NW:

TROPICAL STORM FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 30.0N 41.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.09.2026 0 30.0N 41.9W 1014 26
1200UTC 25.09.2026 12 30.1N 42.8W 1014 31
0000UTC 26.09.2026 24 30.0N 43.8W 1014 30
1200UTC 26.09.2026 36 30.1N 44.6W 1014 27
0000UTC 27.09.2026 48 30.1N 44.8W 1015 23
1200UTC 27.09.2026 60 29.9N 44.9W 1015 23
0000UTC 28.09.2026 72 29.6N 44.9W 1016 22
1200UTC 28.09.2026 84 28.7N 45.3W 1015 22
0000UTC 29.09.2026 96 27.7N 46.1W 1014 22
1200UTC 29.09.2026 108 26.8N 47.2W 1012 24
0000UTC 30.09.2026 120 26.2N 48.5W 1012 26
1200UTC 30.09.2026 132 26.1N 50.1W 1011 26
0000UTC 01.10.2026 144 26.3N 51.5W 1012 29
1200UTC 01.10.2026 156 27.2N 52.3W 1011 30
0000UTC 02.10.2026 168 28.1N 52.9W 1010 32

————

12Z 9/25/26 UKMET run for Fay:

  TROPICAL STORM FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 30.1N 42.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.09.2026 0 30.1N 42.4W 1014 31
0000UTC 26.09.2026 12 30.0N 43.2W 1014 27
1200UTC 26.09.2026 24 30.1N 43.6W 1014 28
0000UTC 27.09.2026 36 30.1N 43.6W 1015 24
1200UTC 27.09.2026 48 29.8N 43.4W 1014 23
0000UTC 28.09.2026 60 29.0N 43.2W 1015 24
1200UTC 28.09.2026 72 27.7N 43.3W 1014 26
0000UTC 29.09.2026 84 26.3N 44.7W 1013 26
1200UTC 29.09.2026 96 25.3N 46.5W 1011 25
0000UTC 30.09.2026 108 24.7N 48.7W 1011 27
1200UTC 30.09.2026 120 24.7N 50.8W 1011 28
0000UTC 01.10.2026 132 24.8N 52.7W 1011 29
1200UTC 01.10.2026 144 25.3N 54.4W 1011 28
0000UTC 02.10.2026 156 25.6N 55.4W 1012 32
1200UTC 02.10.2026 168 25.7N 56.4W 1011 31

[Windspeed]

Fay looks like it is going to run out of time again. Clearly, the dry environment is causing issues and inhibiting core development. Increasing shear will start impacting the system by this afternoon.

[GaWx]

9 hours ago, vortex95 said:

00z HRRR shows the E Coast low taking on more ST characterists 40-48 hr as a inner core contracted wind field develops.  RRFS it take over 24 hr longer to do this.

 

 

[vortex95]

Concerning the East Coast storm, I wanted to point out something I can not recall seeing in this region in Sep.

This is not your typical "cold" ET storm evolution. The initial surface low development was S of the 576 dm 1000-500 thickness  line and by 25/18z, a small 582 closed thickness pool had formed over the low center (see ECMWF 12z 06 hr and 18z 03 hr forecast attached).  This is a much higher thickness than what you would find in a typical strong ET storm development near 37N in late Se in this region off the U.S. East Coast.  A 582 thickness pool is what you commonly see on the global models over a mature hurricane, so I would be cautious here as this is an outlier case and conventional rules of thumb may not apply.  This is why I mentioned in an earlier post that one needs to think outside the box here.  

Yes, I know that this mid-level warm pool alone does not make it even close  to a ST system currently, but you have to admit this is unusually warm for initial strong baroclinic development and a high launching pad, relativity speaking.  Nothing quite like this (at least in the last 50 yr) has occurred in Sep in this particular region when a strong ET low develops during the  near peak climo of SSTs that are 2-4 C above average and the low meanders for days in the same region close to the coast.

 

I attached the SSTs analysis and the approximate position of the surface low at 25/18z.  It is over SSTs more than enough to support ST transition and is going nowhere fast the next 72 hr off the Mid-Atlantic coast, so I would not let one's guard down here.

The closest analog is the Perfect Storm ET low Oct-Nov 1991 and the hurricane that formed from it eventually, so such a scenario here is not unprecedented.  A recon was flown into that system when the transition had occured and they found a 981 pressure and 88 kt FL winds.

 

[MANDA]

Latest 2026 Atlantic basin stats:

Still not at 10 ACE points.  Currently sitting at 8.9 and not going to reach 10 by end of the month.  Still no hurricanes.

While certainly not a given one has to start wondering if we can get though the season without a hurricane.  It should at least be on the bingo card.  I'd give it 50/50 odds.