2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Windspeed]

Probably out of time, but it was a good effort lol.

Haha, yeah, Fay just got decapitated. Oh well...

[NorthHillsWx]

Valiant effort. Next. 

[wdrag]

Opinions this weekend 9/25-27: potential evolving hybrid subtropical storm affecting NYC metro-New England. More so EPS, but also a muted agreed signal in the GEFS. Any thoughts?  Current guidance is offering a pretty good chance of at least moderate CF, FGEN heavy rain, obviously 45+ wind gusts parts of this region. 

 

Or am I counting too much on the guidance as is, and it ends up weaker or further east. 

We've had spotty modeling of 5-8" rainfall by Sunday night for several days. 

Glad I'm not seafaring in the NY Biight-Bermuda this coming weekend. 

Thanks for the check. 

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Opinions this weekend 9/25-27: potential evolving hybrid subtropical storm affecting NYC metro-New England. More so EPS, but also a muted agreed signal in the GEFS. Any thoughts?  Current guidance is offering a pretty good chance of at least moderate CF, FGEN heavy rain, obviously 45+ wind gusts parts of this region. 

 

Or am I counting too much on the guidance as is, and it ends up weaker or further east. 

We've had spotty modeling of 5-8" rainfall by Sunday night for several days. 

Glad I'm not seafaring in the NY Biight-Bermuda this coming weekend. 

Thanks for the check. 

Walt!  So good to hear from you.  We miss you over on the NYC Metro forum.  Hope all well with you.

My opinion.  Minor to moderate coastal flooding especially LI Sound and Jersey beaches and SNE coast.  Any winds of note confined to more eastern sections NJ coast out to eastern LI and SNE especially.  Same with rainfall more coastal than inland. This is based on the modeling now.  Any ticks west this week and interior sections could be more affected by winds and rain. Something interesting to watch.

[MANDA]

With Fay falling just short we're back on track to keep the record going for latest developing hurricane.  Certainly within the realm of possibility now that we make it through September with no hurricanes for the season to date.

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Opinions this weekend 9/25-27: potential evolving hybrid subtropical storm affecting NYC metro-New England. More so EPS, but also a muted agreed signal in the GEFS. Any thoughts?  Current guidance is offering a pretty good chance of at least moderate CF, FGEN heavy rain, obviously 45+ wind gusts parts of this region. 

 

Or am I counting too much on the guidance as is, and it ends up weaker or further east. 

We've had spotty modeling of 5-8" rainfall by Sunday night for several days. 

Glad I'm not seafaring in the NY Biight-Bermuda this coming weekend. 

Thanks for the check. 

Walt, it's good to hear from you. I hope all is well. 

As you know, the signal for something developing off the coast has been there for a few days now, and as we get closer in time I am becoming a touch more bullish. I think the odds are low that we see an officially designated subtropical storm, but I am intrigued by some of the guidance signals between the Google DeepMind, EPS, and Euro/GFS AI. 

This is a highly uncommon thing for us up in the Mid-Atlantic and New England to see in September, even if it remains non-tropical. Currently I think the impacts are around what you describe. If the Euro suite is to be believed, we would see strong winds, prolonged easterly fetch causing significant coastal flooding, especially if the storm is still potent around astronomical high tides later in the week, and potentially significant rainfall. I'll note that part of southern Connecticut has been inundated recently with rainfall and flash flooding, and although this rain would likely last over days, if it is potent with a tropical tap banding into the state could cause serious issues. 

This is one to watch IMO. Regardless of official designation. 

[NEG NAO]

as of today - most of the significant impact from the coastal LP will be further east BUT this could still change - stay tuned !