WxWatcher007 Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 On 6/7/2026 at 9:11 AM, GaWx said: Thanks. The 0Z EPS cut back significantly on the % of members with Gulf TCG vs yesterday’s 12Z run. It will be interesting to see how future runs compare. The 6Z GEFS has significantly increased activity vs earlier runs. Edit: The 12Z GEFS is significantly quieter than that more active 6Z GEFS. Looking more like a Campeche window than Gulf now. Would be a win for AI. 10 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: zzzzzzzzz Forget hitting the snooze button. Pull the alarm clock out the wall, chief. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 First lemon of the season in the BoC. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 Seeing some potential interesting tropical mischief in the GOM next week. A stalled frontal boundary providing vorticity, remnant energy from the system entering the BOC this weekend dragging up lots of tropical moisture, and indications of a pocket of lower shear and diffluence between central US trough and a persistent GOM ridge:https://x.com/yconsor/status/2065067111521652967 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Time for the first analysis of the 2026 season. As @nw baltimore wx notes, our area of interest, which was the first lemon of the season deep in the Bay of Campeche, is now a banana, which scrapes the western Gulf. 1. Western Gulf: A broad area of low pressure has formed over the far southern Bay of Campeche and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally conducive for development before the system moves inland over eastern Mexico late Saturday or Sunday. The system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf on Tuesday and Wednesday while interacting with a frontal boundary, but there too, conditions are only expected to be marginally conducive for any development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. You can see below that we have a broad area of spin, and in the Bay of Campeche, where the concave nature of the coastline allows for consolidation of vorticity, this may be a favorable factor that's now being picked up by the AI models--which have frankly outperformed the legacy models recently. Aside from being buried currently in the geographically favorable BoC, the conditions for tropical genesis look marginal. SSTs are fine, but they're marginal. Nothing too surprising for this time of year. Wind shear currently isn't an issue, but upper level winds do not look favorable outside of a small window, with a huge ribbon of high shear across the Gulf and through the Caribbean and Atlantic. That said, you don't need much for marginal development this time of year, and while the legacy models (GFS/Euro and their ensembles) were bullish earlier on central/eastern Gulf development that ended up being wrong, with AI so far winning out on the possible zone of development. While the legacy ensembles quickly bury this broad low in Mexico and crucially--keep it there. The AI models pick up the low before it gets too far inland. That keeps the window open for development as it curves around the western Gulf. Note the difference between the EPS and AI EPS! Google DeepMind, which I believe performed the best in highlighting tropical genesis signals last season, is starting to show more interest in this idea as well. This one has a chance for some marginal development, if it can stay offshore for an extended period of time. Either way, this continues to highlight the signal I've mentioned before for heavy rain in the southeast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 For those still watching, the last two Euro runs do something very weird with our area of interest. It tries to organize it well inland and treks it across the south. Can't say I've seen that before lol. Still a chance for some marginal development later in the week as a front tries to get involved in the NW Gulf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 It's not much, but this lemon is enough to get me thinking about the tropics again. Always fun to start a new season, though I'd expect this one to be a bit rough in terms of overall HU activity. Do yourself a favor and take a look at the westerly wind burst on going in the Nino zone. There is a gigantic pool at the subsurface that is primed to get churned up by downwelling oceanic kelvin waves during any westerly burst events. This Nino is going to get strong very quickly barring an unexpected downtrend. Anyways, take a look at recent Euro depictions of this AOI (partially ex-Cristina) once it gets inland over the SE USA. I spy a major brown ocean effect bias within the Euro that is once again showing up, though GFS and other do manage to retain a somewhat competent vorticity packet while over land. This soon to be invest is going to be a real feature, but a storm essentially RI'ing over land is not a realistic outcome. My thoughts: A depression making landfall in Texas will NOT intensify into a 985mb borderline hurricane over Shreveport (0Z 6/14 Euro begs to differ) . I doubt this thing intensifies on an organizational or SLP sense once inland, rather its injection of moisture and vorticity into the trough will help boost an already volatile severe weather look for mid-week across the Midwest and Ohio Valley. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 55 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said: It's not much, but this lemon is enough to get me thinking about the tropics again. Always fun to start a new season, though I'd expect this one to be a bit rough in terms of overall HU activity. Do yourself a favor and take a look at the westerly wind burst on going in the Nino zone. There is a gigantic pool at the subsurface that is primed to get churned up by downwelling oceanic kelvin waves during any westerly burst events. This Nino is going to get strong very quickly barring an unexpected downtrend. Anyways, take a look at recent Euro depictions of this AOI (partially ex-Cristina) once it gets inland over the SE USA. I spy a major brown ocean effect bias within the Euro that is once again showing up, though GFS and other do manage to retain a somewhat competent vorticity packet while over land. This soon to be invest is going to be a real feature, but a storm essentially RI'ing over land is not a realistic outcome. My thoughts: A depression making landfall in Texas will NOT intensify into a 985mb borderline hurricane over Shreveport (0Z 6/14 Euro begs to differ) . I doubt this thing intensifies on an organizational or SLP sense once inland, rather its injection of moisture and vorticity into the trough will help boost an already volatile severe weather look for mid-week across the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Glad you pointed this out. ECMWF was unrealistically showing tropical deepening well inland from MS to the Carolinas. 18z backed off and looks more reasonable. And now the GFS has the same idea. Excellent point about how this may play a role in the SVR later in the week. It seems up until now, rich deep moisture was lacking as noted by not so high CAPE even in the Mid-Atlantic, but this tropical low could make a huge difference as to sensible svr wx, esp. NYC to DCA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 I hadn’t thought of the severe implications, but that’s very interesting. Development odds have increased to 30% with the NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 Flash flooding in the south as odds increase… Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Northwestern Gulf of America: A trough of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development is not expected during the next day or so while the trough remains inland. However, the system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, and environmental conditions there are marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical storm on Wednesday into Thursday. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days which could produce widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and river flooding. Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required on Tuesday. Additional information on this system can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Flash flooding in the south as odds increase… Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Northwestern Gulf of America: A trough of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development is not expected during the next day or so while the trough remains inland. However, the system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, and environmental conditions there are marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical storm on Wednesday into Thursday. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days which could produce widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and river flooding. Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required on Tuesday. Additional information on this system can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake I’ll consider this a win for Bastardi if it actually becomes a TC. He predicted back in April a Gulf TC due to MJO phase 8 being bullish for Gulf TCs in June. This could provide major drought relief for a good portion of the SE! This is now Invest 90L: https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal902026.dat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 Remnants of Arthur not coming back Quote Disturbance 1: 0% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 7 Days As of 2:00 PM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026... Offshore the East Coast of the United States (Remnants of Arthur): Showers and thunderstorms located near the southeastern United States coast and adjacent offshore waters are associated with a trough of low pressure (the remnants of Arthur). Strong upper-level winds and interaction with a nearby frontal system are expected to limit any subtropical or tropical development of this system tonight while it moves northeastward at 25 to 30 mph over the western Atlantic Ocean. By early Saturday, the system is forecast to merge with the front while it continues northeastward over cooler waters. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 6 hours ago, marsman said: Remnants of Arthur not coming back Can't say I've seen the gray X before. RIP I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Can't say I've seen the gray X before. RIP I guess. That's new this year. See screenshot attached. A good change IMHO b/c it quantifies things better. Too often, the MSM gets "yellow X happy," as I like to call it, when NHC has multiple potential areas outlined, and the MSM and the hyper-masters act like, "the tropics are coming ALIVE!" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 A worthwhile read that goes into more detail about AI forecasting. We’ll see if the GDM can keep up the exceptional work. https://michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/ai-weather-models-changing-the-hurricane 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted June 25 Share Posted June 25 On 6/14/2026 at 10:22 PM, Boston Bulldog said: My thoughts: A depression making landfall in Texas will NOT intensify into a 985mb borderline hurricane over Shreveport (0Z 6/14 Euro begs to differ) . I doubt this thing intensifies on an organizational or SLP sense once inland, rather its injection of moisture and vorticity into the trough will help boost an already volatile severe weather look for mid-week across the Midwest and Ohio Valley. This verified decently well with a slew of tornado warnings and observed tornadoes across the south as Arthur swung through. Obviously it did not intensify. The moisture didn't quite hook up with the major tornado outbreaks across the midwest, though honestly so much deep moisture streaming in could have tempered the storm mode and filled regions of observed discrete tornadic supercell development with slop-vection. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 New lemon off the SE coast. Minor to modest development signal on the guidance but perhaps there’s just enough of a window for weak development. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: New lemon off the SE coast. Minor to modest development signal on the guidance but perhaps there’s just enough of a window for weak development. 0Z UKMET has a 1015 mb low hitting Daytona Thu AM moving WNW underneath a very strong H5 high centered over W VA although this is the model run exception rather than the rule. This is too weak to make it to actual TD status although it’s its first run with anything of note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 27 Share Posted June 27 39 minutes ago, GaWx said: 0Z UKMET has a 1015 mb low hitting Daytona Thu AM moving WNW underneath a very strong H5 high centered over W VA although this is the model run exception rather than the rule. This is too weak to make it to actual TD status although it’s its first run with anything of note. Euro AI ensembles and GDM have a modest signal for something weak but you’re right, I haven’t seen anything really on operational runs yet. A very quiet start overall. Even fairly quiet in the EPAC which is surprising to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 The 12Z UKMET had nothing of note, even less than yesterday’s 0Z’s very weak low hitting near Daytona Beach. But the new 0Z is the 1st of its runs with a TD transitioning from an extratropical low that forms on a front. It then moves WSW but remains weak and then gradually weakens followed by dissipation on Thu well off the SE coast: MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 28.06.2026 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 32.1N 71.8W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 30.06.2026 60 32.1N 70.7W 1011 26 0000UTC 01.07.2026 72 31.2N 71.3W 1012 25 1200UTC 01.07.2026 84 30.4N 71.5W 1013 25 0000UTC 02.07.2026 96 30.5N 72.7W 1015 22 1200UTC 02.07.2026 108 30.6N 74.3W 1016 16 0000UTC 03.07.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 12Z UKMET is fairly similar to the 0Z: TD that stays weak and then dissipates well offshore: MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 28.06.2026 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 32.1N 72.3W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 30.06.2026 48 32.1N 72.3W 1013 25 0000UTC 01.07.2026 60 31.4N 72.5W 1012 24 1200UTC 01.07.2026 72 31.0N 72.8W 1013 22 0000UTC 02.07.2026 84 31.2N 74.4W 1014 20 1200UTC 02.07.2026 96 31.6N 75.7W 1015 17 0000UTC 03.07.2026 108 CEASED TRACKING 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Monday at 04:57 AM Share Posted Monday at 04:57 AM The UKMET keeps developing this into a weak TD and then dissipating it well offshore the SE US as it moves SW, WSW, W, and then WNW. I doubt this ever becomes a TD when considering other models: MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 29.06.2026 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 32.5N 72.5W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 30.06.2026 36 31.5N 71.9W 1012 26 0000UTC 01.07.2026 48 31.1N 72.1W 1011 26 1200UTC 01.07.2026 60 30.8N 73.0W 1012 23 0000UTC 02.07.2026 72 30.8N 74.3W 1013 21 1200UTC 02.07.2026 84 31.1N 75.8W 1015 18 0000UTC 03.07.2026 96 31.8N 77.2W 1016 18 1200UTC 03.07.2026 108 CEASED TRACKING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Monday at 05:08 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:08 PM The new (12Z) UKMET has nothing designated as a weak TD, unlike the prior 3 full runs. However, Pivotal’s UK maps still have just about the same as a weak TD (a closed weak sfc low) along a similar track. It approaches SC late on 7/2 and comes into SC with hardly any circ. but with strong and persistent convection for S SC on 7/3-4 with a max of a whopping 9” 35 miles W of CHS before the convection heads NE up the Carolinas’ coast 7/5-6. That very heavy precip though is a major outlier vs other models and thus is highly unlikely as of now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted Wednesday at 02:33 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:33 AM Can’t lie, it’s been a long time since I’ve been so down on HU activity in the short and medium time scales. SSTs across the Tropical Atlantic, unfavorable subseasonal variability, ripping ENSO conditions, and general early season hostility are slamming the door shut on deep tropical development for the foreseeable future. The most recent lemon is a good example of what we can get until a lucky MJO-CCKW linkup occurs with more encouraging climatology… mediocre subtropical spin ups. Blah 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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