CoastalWx Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, if his hill were closer to the source, like up in my area, he'd get his wish and be eating PB & J in the dark for a few days. Maybe you have that from paste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe you have that from paste I don't think so.....unlikely. I will take my chances with that..ice, nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, if his hill were closer to the source, like up in my area, he'd get his wish and be eating PB & J in the dark for a few days. I really do think there will be some solid ice here . It’s mainly all at night and 30-31 with NE wind. That’s how ORH did it in 2008. I’m not expecting that obviously, but there almost has to be some icing here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think so.....unlikely. I will take my chances with that..ice, nope. You could get quite the pasting there. Even here it’s close. Tough for me to buy a snowy solution, but that’s a lot of QPF coming through here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I really do think there will be some solid ice here . It’s mainly all at night and 30-31 with NE wind. That’s how ORH did it in 2008. I’m not expecting that obviously, but there almost has to be some icing here Yea, I don't think Scoot is arguing it will be nothing but puddles, but just that accretion maybe limited to more of the nuisance variety given the marginal temps...more of just an aesthetic appeal to afford you the opportunity to sleep snugly in your icy footie jammies, nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I don't think Scoot is arguing it will be nothing but puddles, but just that accretion maybe limited to more of the nuisance variety given the marginal temps...more of just an aesthetic appeal to afford you the opportunity to sleep snugly in your icy footie jammies. With the velcro dumper 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 Just now, Ginx snewx said: With the velcro dumper The Suslac-slot....one of us needs to present that to the Sharks on shark tank "So sharks, who is ready to join me on this shitty journey"!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I got the impression it was conservative based on this place....I hadn't seen other maps when I did mine. I agree not much snow SOP...the "up to an inch" is just to cover my ass because IP counts. they love the NBM, and guess what the NBM looks like that, so no surprise i just posted your fav storm btw, a new thread 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: they love the NBM, and guess what the NBM looks like that, so no surprise i just posted your fav storm btw, a new thread NBM sucked ass is in the blizzard....kept getting me like 18-20", and they followed it right off of the bridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 I feel like they need to tweak that NBM because it is biased too much by outlier data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I don't think Scoot is arguing it will be nothing but puddles, but just that accretion maybe limited to more of the nuisance variety given the marginal temps...more of just an aesthetic appeal to afford you the opportunity to sleep snugly in your icy footie jammies, nonetheless. You have the low level CAD drain that we’ve been missing pretty much all season… Key prerequisite to getting beyond that 0.2” to quick melt nuisance variety Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I don't think Scoot is arguing it will be nothing but puddles, but just that accretion maybe limited to more of the nuisance variety given the marginal temps...more of just an aesthetic appeal to afford you the opportunity to sleep snugly in your icy footie jammies, nonetheless. Before he tries to put words in my mouth again, I guess it’s possible it could be major there… But right now a lot of the red flags for major icing there on checked off. At least IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 Just now, jbenedet said: You have the low level CAD drain that we’ve been missing pretty much all season… Key prerequisite to getting beyond that 0.2” to quick melt nuisance variety We’ve been missing? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: You have the low level CAD drain that we’ve been missing pretty much all season… Key prerequisite to getting beyond that 0.2” to quick melt nuisance variety I feel like low level cold has overperformed all season.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: NBM sucked ass is in the blizzard....kept getting me like 18-20", and they followed it right off of the bridge. its weighs a lot of the hi res garbage models like WRFs, SREFs, HIRESW, 3K, RAP etc and those were super amped and inside BM for a while pummeling all of SNE so it was no surprise it was very high until the end. It was also way too high for Jan 25-26 until the end it came to reality, kept showing 20-30 for most of CT with ridiculous ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: We’ve been missing? It’s been a year of CP overhead. Not cold tucks. Not in my hood anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I feel like they need to tweak that NBM because it is biased too much by outlier data. The V5 is much more tame and its going operational soon to replace the current one 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I feel like low level cold has overperformed all season.... Airmasses have been cold and overperforming but it hasn’t been a year of cold tucks. That’s my point. I’m almost all snow this year. Much different than prior years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: its weighs a lot of the hi res garbage models like WRFs, SREFs, HIRESW, 3K, RAP etc and those were super amped and inside BM for a while pummeling all of SNE so it was no surprise it was very high until the end. It was also way too high for Jan 25-26 until the end it came to reality, kept showing 20-30 for most of CT with ridiculous ratios Right, so you would think they would adjust the raw data instead of just copy and pasting to run with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 It’s been too cold for big ice… This event is different. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Airmasses have been cold and overpowering but it hasn’t been a year of cold tucks. That’s my point. I’m almost all snow this year. Much different than prior years. True, I think I recall one event that had a notable tuck.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Before he tries to put words in my mouth again, I guess it’s possible it could be major there… But right now a lot of the red flags for major icing there on checked off. At least IMO. What boxes are checked for major icing? Are there any ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 Just now, jbenedet said: It’s been too cold for big ice… This event is different. Okay, I get your point...agreed. We haven't had many messy events this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 NBM sucks. Not impressed by that model blend. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: What boxes are checked for major icing? Are there any ? Good NE winds and nighttime. Also good moisture. 31 vs 31.8 is night and day. That’s the question imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 Also, you can tell we’re getting towards spring, all I smell are skunks. It’s gross. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 Just now, CoastalWx said: Also, you can tell we’re getting towards spring, all I smell are skunks. It’s gross. Dutch ovens under blankets ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Good NE winds and nighttime. Also good moisture. 31 vs 31.8 is night and day. That’s the question imo. I’ll say it for you.. congrats Union north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NBM sucks. Not impressed by that model blend. Yea, it's too raw....glad they have a new edition coming out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 5 Share Posted March 5 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Also, you can tell we’re getting towards spring, all I smell are skunks. It’s gross. Yes first time this year. Thank God for fencing. Last thing I need is a doggie stink fest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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