On the Rocks? March 5-6 mess

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, if his hill were closer to the source, like up in my area, he'd get his wish and be eating PB & J in the dark for a few days.

Maybe you have that from paste 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe you have that from paste 

I don't think so.....unlikely. I will take my chances with that..ice, nope.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, if his hill were closer to the source, like up in my area, he'd get his wish and be eating PB & J in the dark for a few days.

I really do think there will be some solid ice here . It’s mainly all at night and 30-31 with NE wind. That’s how ORH did it in 2008. I’m not expecting that obviously, but there almost has to be some icing here 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think so.....unlikely. I will take my chances with that..ice, nope.

You could get quite the pasting there. Even here it’s close. Tough for me to buy a snowy solution, but that’s a lot of QPF coming through here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I really do think there will be some solid ice here . It’s mainly all at night and 30-31 with NE wind. That’s how ORH did it in 2008. I’m not expecting that obviously, but there almost has to be some icing here 

Yea, I don't think Scoot is arguing it will be nothing but puddles, but just that accretion maybe limited to more of the nuisance variety given the marginal temps...more of just an aesthetic appeal to afford you the opportunity to sleep snugly in your icy footie jammies, nonetheless. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I don't think Scoot is arguing it will be nothing but puddles, but just that accretion maybe limited to more of the nuisance variety given the marginal temps...more of just an aesthetic appeal to afford you the opportunity to sleep snugly in your icy footie jammies. 

With the velcro dumper 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

With the velcro dumper 

The Suslac-slot....one of us needs to present that to the Sharks on shark tank "So sharks, who is ready to join me on this shitty journey"!?

[The 4 Seasons]

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I got the impression it was conservative based on this place....I hadn't seen other maps when I did mine. I agree not much snow SOP...the "up to an inch" is just to cover my ass because IP counts.

they love the NBM, and guess what the NBM looks like that, so no surprise

i just posted your fav storm btw, a new thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

they love the NBM, and guess what the NBM looks like that, so no surprise

i just posted your fav storm btw, a new thread

NBM sucked ass is in the blizzard....kept getting me like 18-20", and they followed it right off of the bridge.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I feel like they need to tweak that NBM because it is biased too much by outlier data.

[jbenedet]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I don't think Scoot is arguing it will be nothing but puddles, but just that accretion maybe limited to more of the nuisance variety given the marginal temps...more of just an aesthetic appeal to afford you the opportunity to sleep snugly in your icy footie jammies, nonetheless. 

You have the low level CAD drain that we’ve been missing pretty much all season…

Key prerequisite to getting beyond that 0.2” to quick melt nuisance variety 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I don't think Scoot is arguing it will be nothing but puddles, but just that accretion maybe limited to more of the nuisance variety given the marginal temps...more of just an aesthetic appeal to afford you the opportunity to sleep snugly in your icy footie jammies, nonetheless. 

Before he tries to put words in my mouth again, I guess it’s possible it could be major there… But right now a lot of the red flags for major icing there on checked off. At least IMO.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, jbenedet said:

You have the low level CAD drain that we’ve been missing pretty much all season…

Key prerequisite to getting beyond that 0.2” to quick melt nuisance variety 

We’ve been missing?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

You have the low level CAD drain that we’ve been missing pretty much all season…

Key prerequisite to getting beyond that 0.2” to quick melt nuisance variety 

I feel like low level cold has overperformed all season....

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

NBM sucked ass is in the blizzard....kept getting me like 18-20", and they followed it right off of the bridge.

its weighs a lot of the hi res garbage models like WRFs, SREFs, HIRESW, 3K, RAP etc and those were super amped and inside BM for a while pummeling all of SNE so it was no surprise it was very high until the end.

It was also way too high for Jan 25-26 until the end it came to reality, kept showing 20-30 for most of CT with ridiculous ratios 

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

We’ve been missing?

It’s been a year of CP overhead. Not cold tucks. Not in my hood anyway.

[The 4 Seasons]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel like they need to tweak that NBM because it is biased too much by outlier data.

The V5 is much more tame and its going operational soon to replace the current one 

[jbenedet]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel like low level cold has overperformed all season....

Airmasses have been cold and overperforming  but it hasn’t been a year of cold tucks. That’s my point. 
 

I’m almost all snow this year. Much different than prior years.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

its weighs a lot of the hi res garbage models like WRFs, SREFs, HIRESW, 3K, RAP etc and those were super amped and inside BM for a while pummeling all of SNE so it was no surprise it was very high until the end.

It was also way too high for Jan 25-26 until the end it came to reality, kept showing 20-30 for most of CT with ridiculous ratios 

Right, so you would think they would adjust the raw data instead of just copy and pasting to run with it.

[jbenedet]

It’s been too cold for big ice…

 

This event is different.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Airmasses have been cold and overpowering  but it hasn’t been a year of cold tucks. That’s my point. 
 

I’m almost all snow this year. Much different than prior years.

True, I think I recall one event that had a notable tuck..

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Before he tries to put words in my mouth again, I guess it’s possible it could be major there… But right now a lot of the red flags for major icing there on checked off. At least IMO.

What boxes are checked for major icing? Are there any ?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, jbenedet said:

It’s been too cold for big ice…

 

This event is different.

Okay, I get your point...agreed. We haven't had many messy events this year.

[CoastalWx]

NBM sucks. Not impressed by that model blend.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What boxes are checked for major icing? Are there any ?

Good NE winds and nighttime. Also good moisture. 31 vs 31.8 is night and day. That’s the question imo. 

[CoastalWx]

Also, you can tell we’re getting towards spring, all I smell are skunks. It’s gross.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Also, you can tell we’re getting towards spring, all I smell are skunks. It’s gross.

Dutch ovens under blankets ?

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Good NE winds and nighttime. Also good moisture. 31 vs 31.8 is night and day. That’s the question imo. 

I’ll say it for you.. congrats Union north 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NBM sucks. Not impressed by that model blend.

Yea, it's too raw....glad they have a new edition coming out.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Also, you can tell we’re getting towards spring, all I smell are skunks. It’s gross.

Yes first time this year. Thank God for fencing. Last thing I need is a doggie stink fest.