“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[The 4 Seasons]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

"Therrreees the Demon"...I definitely invoked Bruce's spirit last night.

we're gonna get whacked 

[moneypitmike]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/02/severe-winter-storm-imminent-sunday.html

First Call:

So much weather. 

I'll be hoping the wind will keep my clear of the 1-2" we'll be getting here.

At this point, I think the ensembles can only be used for a sense of "is there room to move".  Everything says the limit's been reached for low placement.  QPF fields may still vary a little.

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

we're gonna get whacked 

Hi boys….I’m heading back from sledding this morning…let’s have a blizzard in SNE!!!  

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Hi boys….I’m heading back from sledding this morning…let’s have a blizzard in SNE!!!  

Missed u wolfie. You're the Yin to TBlizzs Yang. Balance is all out of whack. 

What happened no service up there?

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Missed u wolfie. You're the Yin to TBlizzs Yang. Balance is all out of whack. 

What happened no service up there?

Was in Quebec in the Gaspe’ peninsula until Wednesday night sledding…then we re entered the states, and saw you guys had it under control, so just lurked and kept quiet. I’m liking what I’m seeing though…very exciting to say the least. 

[The 4 Seasons]

RGEM improved came NW but it was more of the SE models 

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Was in Quebec in the Gaspe’ peninsula until Wednesday night sledding…then we re entered the states, and saw you guys had it under control, so just lurked and kept quiet. I’m liking what I’m seeing though…very exciting to say the least. 

Thanks for watching over us

[moneypitmike]

I don't think this GYX AFD is accounting for the tick back SE.  They do acknowledge surprise that the models aren't showing more along the Maine coast.
 

In summary, confidence is increasing in the coastal
plain seeing accumulating snowfall, with less confidence inland.
Timing has also become clearer with snow likely not reaching
our area until the early hours of Monday morning and lasting
into early Tuesday. Amounts remain highly uncertain, but with
hi-res models now in the mix we should be able to lock onto a
more certain track over the next 24 hours.

[The 4 Seasons]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I don't think this GYX AFD is accounting for the tick back SE.  They do acknowledge surprise that the models aren't showing more along the Maine coast.
 

In summary, confidence is increasing in the coastal
plain seeing accumulating snowfall, with less confidence inland.
Timing has also become clearer with snow likely not reaching
our area until the early hours of Monday morning and lasting
into early Tuesday. Amounts remain highly uncertain, but with
hi-res models now in the mix we should be able to lock onto a
more certain track over the next 24 hours 

Okx mentioned uncertainty and that's why they went "conservative" with 14-18 otherwise NBM is 16-24 and waiting for more continuity to go bigger

[moneypitmike]

6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Okx mentioned uncertainty and that's why they went "conservative" with 14-18 otherwise NBM is 16-24 and waiting for more continuity to go bigger

The difference is that GYX has to make the call between 1-2 and 3-7.. 

[moneypitmike]

Looks like GFS might be a little south........goodbye SE Mass--it's been nice knowing you.

At least I can enjoy the sound of the plow right now.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Looks like GFS might be a little south........goodbye SE Mass--it's been nice knowing you.

At least I can enjoy the sound of the plow right now.

Qpf is actually better.. EOR going to get destroyed 

[ineedsnow]

Woof!

[moneypitmike]

Good Lord.

[moneypitmike]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Qpf is actually better.. EOR going to get destroyed 

Yup.  My earlier post was that the low's placement had reached it's northern limit--the qpf field would still vary.

[moneypitmike]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Woof!

a couple tenths of that in the 128 area are from prior to the storm.  The 48-hour totals will control for that.

[H2Otown_WX]

When I called the winter a ratter, January 25th happened. When I said more whiffs and cold rain, this storm came back from the dead. I guess I'll just say something pessimistic and that ensures we get a KU. 

[moneypitmike]

Serious question here:

How would anyone make accurate accumulation measurements with this wind?  I'd think it'll be an exercise in futility.

[codfishsnowman]

I'd really like to see some more purple across west central and Western Mass and parts of eastern New York. This qpf cut off is vomit worthy....

We're going to have to have some deform magic or its ar tic sand and pictures from the south and east to look at

I don't know if I have ever seen the models hammar home valley deficits so intensely before....every model has it so its got to be right.

 

[The 4 Seasons]

5 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

When I called the winter a ratter, January 25th happened. When I said more whiffs and cold rain, this storm came back from the dead. I guess I'll just say something pessimistic and that ensures we get a KU. 

I mean you're the glass half full king you stay pessimistic but we love it.

We do, uh, have rather big storm on our hands..

[moneypitmike]

Last night's 6" brings me to 65" for the season. 

I'll probably finish around average (80-isih) while this storm will make many in SNE score the winter as an A+.

[The 4 Seasons]

The GFS machine is nearly identical,  mostly noise if anything.

GFS is a tick west and more robust. 15-30 region wide except N/NW MA berks cuts off sharply

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Last night's 6" brings me to 65" for the season. 

I'll probably finish around average (80-isih) while this storm will make many in SNE score the winter as an A+.

GFS also has another big one Friday 

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

GFS also has another big one Friday 

I'll be better off tracking that one. 

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

GFS also has another big one Friday 

Hopefully another 6-12er after this. Just looking for one big one in March to give this winter an A and at least 55 60".. assuming this one works out OK

[ineedsnow]

GEFS look even slightly better

[ineedsnow]

[ineedsnow]

West of 0z

[codfishsnowman]

5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I'll be better off tracking that one. 

Are you not way out in NW Mass anymore?

[moneypitmike]

I doubt I'll muster a snow day.  Even if if I somehow manage several inches here, my office in Waterville will max at 1-2.