2026-2027 Super El Nino

[GaWx]

-SOI is up to 87 straight days. Record is 1998’s 100 days. I don’t know if it will make it to 100.

-1015+ Darwin streak ended at 26 days, breaking old record back to 1991 of 20 days 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, Keith Central PA said:

Shocked the Euro is not a blowtorch for most of the country this winter..Maybe because of the strength of the Nino, people are expecting 97-98, 15-16.. Super Nino is always warm. Maybe its seeing other factors..will be interesting to see how this nino performs 

I am not that surprised since these seasonal forecast models can’t do much better than general climatology or correlations.

Never saw a seasonal model forecast an extreme pattern before it actually happened except for 2013-2014.

So I don’t expect the actual details to begin to emerge much before the model runs near the beginning of December. 

All we know for sure at this point is that this will be the strongest El Niño on record. All previous super events shared the one common aspect of warm winters.

But there is always room for variability with each new event in some regard to past ones such as ridge and trough locations. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

There is a huge statistical misperception. The odds of getting warm 5/5 times is not that low. Record breaking Nino's should probably be warm realistically 65-70% of the time. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

This is an even stronger east based event than 1997-1998 was. The charts below are for what actually verified in C and  F departures for that era.  It was more extreme than general El Niño correlations. 

 

 

So we are going to base this Winter on the 91-20 average? I can tell you right now that will be warm. I would rather do the most recent 30-years. 

[mitchnick]

Some Euro January temp maps off WxBell courtesy MA forum. Top map is from the July forecast and bottom is August's.