2026-2027 Super El Nino

[LakePaste25]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

A +PDO coupled with a super Nino is just 97/98. A -PDO could cause deconstructive interference which makes the pattern much more variable. 

It interferes by *weakening* the SE trough and making it *even warmer* meanwhile a 97-98 type pattern increases the chances of a big snowstorm via the active southern stream. That winter came very close to multiple KUs that barely missed the cold air phase. 82-83/15-16 produced one and had +PDOs as well. 

In my several years of tracking weather it has always been preferable to have a +PDO and is backed up by evidence. “-PDO means less el niño so it’s snowier” is such a wrong way to view it. You *always* want a +PDO in the East, and hopefully it flips and we get that! 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I think somewhere close to neutral PDO is the best scenario for a robust el nino. Strong/super el ninos have busted when the PDO was highly negative or highly positive. A near neutral PDO is the sweet spot (see 1965-66 and 2009-10).

[LakePaste25]

PDO correlation

+PDO = more troughing in the east. 97-98 would’ve been an extreme torch without the +PDO. 

 

[FPizz]

4 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Pretty obvious it wasn't going to be a Modoki from early on given the unusual off-equator WWBs and strength of the subsequent WWBs near the equator. It was catchable by late March-early April and dead easy call to make by late May.

I think he was taking people saying how it could become one too seriously, but he also must follow a bunch of weenies because I haven't really seen anyone with a degree say it only some hopeful hobbiests pondering about it.  

[csnavywx]

22 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I think he was taking people saying how it could become one too seriously, but he also must follow a bunch of weenies because I haven't really seen anyone with a degree say it only some hopeful hobbiests pondering about it.  

Twitter feeds some of these folks to me too (I assume algorithmic engagement bait doing its thing), but yeah, agree that most of them are hobbyists.

That said it's not totally hopeless if the forcing moves far enough east to sneak in some stuff late in the season. And we're kind of in a n=1 space if it comes to say, the warm pool making it to 120W (instead of 160-140W, heck it's *already* at 160).