2026-2027 Super El Nino

[EasternLI]

Looking at the SST changes vs last year at this time would give you the impression this is an entire Pacific ocean event. Pretty wild. Which is interesting too because the entire ocean is really making all of the right moves towards a +IPO. Or interdecadal pacific oscillation. Which would include a longer term +PDO. The south pacific especially, but the NH is trying too apparently. Not much reason to think that wouldn't continue given everything either. Going to be a really impressive event to watch. Already is. Can we flip the longer term pacific too? It's been negative for quite some time. I envision that would take a monster event to set in motion. Or at least look like one. I could be wrong of course, but it so happens we have one... Fascinating. 

 

 

Impact of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific

https://www.nature.com/articles/srep12358

 

[GaWx]

 OISST relative in 3.4 rose a lot yesterday (~0.1C):

 

 What will tomorrow’s official weekly release show though? They’ve been lower than what these OISST graphs were suggesting. This graph suggests it will be +1.7C for the prior calendar week avg. However, they had it at only +1.4C last Monday despite this chart suggesting +1.6C. So, they’ve been low vs the graph. In reality, the graph suggests it warmed a little more than 0.1C since the prior week. So, we’ll see.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

It will be really interesting see how the Aleutian low develops with the rare July displacement into Alaska for such a strong El Niño.

This is the first developing super El Niño with such a low July PNA since 1972. While the sample size is very small, that event featured one of the most unusual winter Aleutian low patterns for such a strong El Niño up to that time.

Significantly colder era back then and this El Niño is much more intense. 
 

July PNA during developing super El Niños 

2023.. +1.15

2015…+0.76

1997….+0.56

1982…+0.97

1972….-0.76

Yeah, you know what's going on. I'd give the % chance of something like that happening like 5-10% right now. 

[raindancewx]

The PNA is negative to barely positive in July in a lot of the big El Ninos on this data set.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/pna.data

2023: +0.65

2015: +0.29

1997: +0.10

1982: +0.49

1972:   -1.13

July was negative in 2018, 1963, 1965, 2004, etc along with 1972

Was also negative in Aug 1997.

 

[snowman19]

The OHC is all the way up to +2.8C. We have blown away 1997’s record of +2.5C

[Stormchaserchuck1]

11 hours ago, snowman19 said:

@Stormchaserchuck1

I'm impressed at how much further west the subsurface warm pool extends vs 1997. This could mean two things:

1) There is more fuel for this Nino to go stronger - and perhaps stronger in Nino 3

2) The "Strong La Nina snap-back" for 27-28 may not be as probable as some may think. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Everyone was saying 1998-2025 SOI was such that it is probably biased positive now. This is about as respectable as a downward drop as you will see. Here's the last 2 days.. 90-day and 30-day are both below -20 now. 

26 Jul 2026	1011.41	1015.60	-31.64	-25.66	-20.20
25 Jul 2026	1011.59	1015.45	-29.61	-25.54	-20.06

 

This is turning into a top-5 -SOI event since the 1800s, so yeah it's probably not biased positive with AGW. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm impressed at how much further west the subsurface warm pool extends vs 1997. This could mean two things:
1) There is more fuel for this Nino to go stronger - and perhaps stronger in Nino 3
2) The "Strong La Nina snap-back" for 27-28 may not be as probable as some may think. 

We are breaking a bunch of 1997’s records. We are on the verge of easily surpassing 1997’s subsurface warmth. The OHC has broken 1997’s record, which was +2.5C, we are at +2.8C, this ongoing WWB is record-breaking, much stronger than the one that occurred around the same time in 1997, the associated DWKW is also stronger. This -SOI run is breaking 1997’s record. We are warmer in both region 3.4 and region 3 and we are virtually neck and neck in region 1+2:



WWB:




Region 3 is forecasted to go off the charts:

The 30C isotherm is further east than 1997 (east of the dateline) and still going: 

“2026 for the win!  Part of the present advantage is the ongoing westerly wind burst timed later than the corresponding one in 1997 (which was late May/early June). This year's summer wind event was longer and ultimately stronger. The 30C isotherm east of the dateline continues to support the extreme potential for this event.”

 

 

[LakePaste25]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I can't stand that cop-out style....just make a forecast. Is there luck involved, sure....but there is luck in everything...it's called chaos. If the Super Bowl is close and it comes down to one play, do they stop the game and just hand out "equal chance" ribbons to very player?

I don’t think it’s a cop out. If it statistically argues so (which is absolutely does for the mid Atlantic) there’s no reason to pretend that it doesn’t. 

[EasternLI]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Everyone was saying 1998-2025 SOI was such that it is probably biased positive now. This is about as respectable as a downward drop as you will see. Here's the last 2 days.. 90-day and 30-day are both below -20 now. 

26 Jul 2026	1011.41	1015.60	-31.64	-25.66	-20.20
25 Jul 2026	1011.59	1015.45	-29.61	-25.54	-20.06

 

You know... that timeframe is interesting and it's funny you mentioned it as I was looking through the H300 PDO index numbers again. In the monthly data, that was actually the last time it was appreciably positive. During 97-98. Greater than +1. And before that too. At times after that it has been above 0 to about 0.5 including during 15-16 but always fell negative again. It remains negative as of now, well as of June's number which was -2. A curious thing to add to this though is the MEI. Which appears to be tracking most similarly to 97-98. There's that year again and a record event of it's own time. Almost seems like that was some kind of turning point of sorts and now here we are just about 30 years later looking at some really intriguing metrics. 

 

H3 PDO: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/PDO_body.html

MEI:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

11 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

 

You know... that timeframe is interesting and it's funny you mentioned it as I was looking through the H300 PDO index numbers again. In the monthly data, that was actually the last time it was appreciably positive. During 97-98. Greater than +1. And before that too. At times after that it has been above 0 to about 0.5 including during 15-16 but always fell negative again. It remains negative as of now, well as of June's number which was -2. A curious thing to add to this though is the MEI. Which appears to be tracking most similarly to 97-98. There's that year again and a record event of it's own time. Almost seems like that was some kind of turning point of sorts and now here we are just about 30 years later looking at some really intriguing metrics. 

 

H3 PDO: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/PDO_body.html

MEI:

We have had a long term -PDO/La Nina pattern, call it a decadal pattern 1998-2025. It seems to have strengthened since 2016, and now in 2026 it's diverging from the S. Hemisphere/equator and the Northern Hemisphere. Up until now you could have said it was either, ENSO or PDO. The Southern Hemisphere Hadley Cell expanding during the time makes me think it was more of a decadal ENSO phase. But now with the N. Pacific significantly diverging from the SOI/ENSO SSTs,,, maybe it's something else related to the PDO. Or my personal theory is cold northern Arctic Summers could have a lot do with it. We also had 100-year low Solar 2001-2020. The max during that time was weakest since the early 1800s.