2026-2027 Super El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'll have a blog update within the next few days, followed by an ENSO update next week.

[raindancewx]

July now looks a bit like July 2012 nationally, near average/cool West/South undercutting a very warm East/north. Sort of the summer version of how a +WPO often looks in early winter. The look is forecast to flip in the 6-10 and 8-14 day periods almost to the exact opposite. I don't expect any of the big indices to remain locked in for the winter. For June, all the big Pacific drivers were of similar sign and magnitude to June 2012 - PNA, WPO, EPO. The Atlantic stuff (AO/NAO) opposite.

Wetter, warmer 2012-13, with blocking is my ceiling for the winter nationally. It's pretty cold for most of the US for brief periods, just not consistently.

You can see for right now when 2012 looked like a weak, east centered El Nino, the Pacific is similar. Atlantic is opposite.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Severe Weather Weenie Europe really beating the disturbed PV drum for next winter.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I've come up with 6 Solar analogs and 5/6 averaged positive NAO in the seasonal mean (one was very slightly negative), 3/6 had at least one month between DJFM that averaged -NAO and it looks as though the strongest signal is March.

My money is on Chuck's formula shifting more positive from here on out, but I don't expect it to be an overwhelming signal, like last year.

Last year was okay up top. My thought was because the sun was so active it acted more like a peaking solar cycle even being technically past the peak as on the way up is generallybetter than down. Maybe it's already been mentioned by another(s) on or off this Board idk. Just a hunch. If correct, an active sun might give a better result....just a weenie WAG!

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

July now looks a bit like July 2012 nationally, near average/cool West/South undercutting a very warm East/north. Sort of the summer version of how a +WPO often looks in early winter. The look is forecast to flip in the 6-10 and 8-14 day periods almost to the exact opposite. I don't expect any of the big indices to remain locked in for the winter. For June, all the big Pacific drivers were of similar sign and magnitude to June 2012 - PNA, WPO, EPO. The Atlantic stuff (AO/NAO) opposite.

Wetter, warmer 2012-13, with blocking is my ceiling for the winter nationally. It's pretty cold for most of the US for brief periods, just not consistently.

You can see for right now when 2012 looked like a weak, east centered El Nino, the Pacific is similar. Atlantic is opposite.

This goes along with the blocky March theme that I just mentioned....

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Last year was okay up top. My thought was because the sun was so active it acted more like a peaking solar cycle even being technically past the peak as on the way up is generallybetter than down. Maybe it's already been mentioned by another(s) on or off this Board idk. Just a hunch. If correct, an active sun might give a better result....just a weenie WAG!

Yea, last year was still close enough to the max that geomagnetic energy, which lags max by a couple of years and is most highly correlated with +NAO, hadn't really kicked in yet. My solar composite (top right) looked like the rest of my composites last year, which resembled the ultimate pattern.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Severe Weather Weenie Europe really beating the disturbed PV drum for next winter.

With +QBO? El Nino by itself does disturb the Stratosphere PV

[PhiEaglesfan712]

10 hours ago, GaWx said:

 

 After researching this carefully, the following CFSv2 forecast map that JB posted for 2027 actually may not be the coldest population weighted CFSv2 JFM forecast overall for the U.S. on the site predicted in summer, which goes back to the progs for JFM of 2012:

 

  Regarding the following forecast, which was made in the summer of ‘13 for JFM of 2014, the U.S. overall may be colder than the above map on a population as opposed to geographically weighted basis because the most heavily populated NE to upper Midwest is significantly colder despite the warmer S:

 

 JB was specifically referring to pop. weighted this far out as he said: “ Population Weighted, CFSV2 with Coldest JFM in hits archive

I went back thru all CFSV2 forecasts since 2012 on its site.

This is the coldest JFM it has ever shown from this far out“

Now, regarding a JFM prog made at anytime of year, which JB wasn’t talking about, this one made in early Jan for 2013 appears to be the coldest of any I found on either a pop or geo wted basis:

 

 Interestingly, the aforementioned recent forecast for JFM 2027 is not that much colder than the following one also made in summer for JFM 2016 (which similarly followed a super Nino peak) as it has a fairly similar pattern (just not as cold):

 

 The above summer of ‘15 prog for JFM ‘16 ended up failing miserably for most of the country as this is what actually happened:

 This miserable failure, itself, doesn’t exactly bode well for those like me hoping the cold on the JB posted CFS for JFM ‘27 will verify well since we’re  again going into a super-Nino.

Do you have the September or October 2015 prediction for JFM 2016?

That JFM 2014 prediction was spot on, lol.

[snowman19]

1997 is the best analog for this event, by far. It’s uncanny. This Nino is going to be stronger however