2026-2027 Super El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, all of the data is available in this post above. Check how closely CANSIPS resembles Modoki data set.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Basin-wide, similarly to this...1982-1983 was very east-based, and even that had some fierce winter mixed in. December was pretty snowy in my area and of course the Feb blizzard....something to keep in mind given it was the one very strong warm ENSO without a pronounced +WPO, and we seem to have seen a decadal shift the north Pacific over the past couple of years.

1982-83 was a classical backloaded winter in the mid-Atlantic. In addition to the February blizzard, there was a snow/freeze event on April 19-20. Places as far south as North Carolina got a hard freeze.

[40/70 Benchmark]

EURO def. in the CFS camp by the look of NDJ, which is what I would expect.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I binned my El Nino composites by weak, mod, strong and intense.....the CFS looks exactly like the "strong" composite at 500mb (1957, 1965, 1986, 1987, 1991, 2009, 2023).

 

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EURO def. in the CFS camp by the look of NDJ, which is what I would expect.

 

[GaWx]

16 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

1982-83 was a classical backloaded winter in the mid-Atlantic. In addition to the February blizzard, there was a snow/freeze event on April 19-20. Places as far south as North Carolina got a hard freeze.

Regarding super strength El Niño seasons, 1957-8, 1972-3 and 1982-3 were all fantastic to historic in the SE overall relative to climo in terms of wintry precip. Also, Feb of 1889 had a major snow in the SE. 1965-6 had historic cold in late Jan. In addition, Jan and especially Feb of 1958 were quite cold! Most importantly, they are usually wet, which we so desperately need to relieve the drought!

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wouldn't resign yourself to a lost season-just accept that we likely aren't getting much in the way of sustained cold.

Hey personally while I love sustained cold, don't have to have it. The snow is the bigger thing for me. I just don't want a 72-73 or 97-98 1.2" snow total...it seems super niños are boom or bust where I am.

[Keith Central PA]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Def. a risk with a pumped STJ....see 2016. More often than not, that is more of a worry for NNE.

72-73..Southeast did well with snow. What happened in NY Metro was either supression or just not enough cold air when precip arrived. Tons of rainstorms. 97-98 was similar