2026-2027 Super El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

El Nino is just not beating out this North Pacific pattern. Last +PNA month was January

[LakePaste25]

13 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

El Nino is just not beating out this North Pacific pattern. Last +PNA month was January

I think the sample size for pre-super Nino summers is simply too small. That rockies ridge is definitely coming from central pacific forcing. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

I think the sample size for pre-super Nino summers is simply too small. That rockies ridge is definitely coming from central pacific forcing. 

Yeah CPC always had above average temps for the east coast for the Summer and you could kind of intuitively tell that it would be such. The +603dm that some models are showing for the Rockies though is the typical -ENSO pattern that we have seen for the last few decades. 

June-July for warm Nino 1+2:

[LakePaste25]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah CPC always had above average temps for the east coast for the Summer and you could kind of intuitively tell that it would be such. The +603dm that some models are showing for the Rockies though is the typical -ENSO pattern that we have seen for the last few decades. 

June-July for warm Nino 1+2:

Still fairly weak correlations (compared to winter). I think the +AO/+NAO is a bigger contributor to all of this mid latitude heat rather than a non-coupled Nino response (it’s coupled). I don’t think we’ve seen this lack of high latitude blocking in previous super Nino summers and it may not be related to how the Nino itself is developing. Could be something else going on here entirely. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I don't think we've seen a North Pacific low anomaly for more than a couple days since the event began. 

[LakePaste25]

Not even disagreeing with you or claiming you’re wrong just putting different theories out there  

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

Obviously we aren't near peak in early July...goes without saying.

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, LakePaste25 said:

I think the sample size for pre-super Nino summers is simply too small. That rockies ridge is definitely coming from central pacific forcing. 

 I don’t agree at all with Jeff B. implying a connection of super-Nino and the current E US heatwave. The mean temp in July (and also in summer as a whole) comes out close to normal rather than hot in the E US when averaging RONI based super strong El Niños. Hardly any were hot. 1957, 65, 72, and 97 were slightly cool. 1982 and 2015 were NN. Only 1991 was hot. That’s just 1 of the 7! That’s enough for me to say that the upcoming super-El Nino in combo with GW is not the direct cause for the current E US heatwave as Jeff said. GW, by itself, obviously favors hotter heatwaves than when the Earth was cooler. But the supposed super-El Nino piece of this, itself, correlating to E US summer heat does not compute to me at all.

 I also don’t at all agree with Jeff calling this one of the most expansive U.S. heatwaves. That’s simply not true. Intense in the VA to Boston corridor? Yes. But not one of the most expansive U.S. heatwaves.

 

[snowman19]

The WPAC is already extremely active with TC’s for sure, but it looks like the EPAC is about to explode with TC’s. In addition to the trade wind reversal and MJO activity, this is going to cause relentless WWBs/westerlies in the weeks and months to come…and with another huge DWKW getting ready to load up, there is no more doubt at this point, this El Niño is going historic
 

^ “As we enter July, models anticipate the Atlantic to remain generally quiet hurricane-wise. El Niño is dominating the current and forecast conditions in the tropical Atlantic, manifesting as high shear in the Caribbean and less thunderstorm activity than normal.

By contrast, the eastern Pacific is expected to spring to life, supported by the El Niño background state. Watch the continuous cyclone activity (orange blobs) in this 35-day GEFS forecast, versus the rather docile Atlantic.”

[Stormchaserchuck1]

31 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I don’t agree at all with Jeff B. implying a connection of super-Nino and the current E US heatwave. The mean temp in July (and also in summer as a whole) comes out close to normal rather than hot in the E US when averaging RONI based super strong El Niños. Hardly any were hot. 1957, 65, 72, and 97 were slightly cool. 1982 and 2015 were NN. Only 1991 was hot. That’s just 1 of the 7! That’s enough for me to say that the upcoming super-El Nino in combo with GW is not the direct cause for the current E US heatwave as Jeff said. GW, by itself, obviously favors hotter heatwaves than when the Earth was cooler. But the supposed super-El Nino piece of this, itself, correlating to E US summer heat does not compute to me at all.

 I also don’t at all agree with Jeff calling this one of the most expansive U.S. heatwaves. That’s simply not true. Intense in the VA to Boston corridor? Yes. But not one of the most expansive U.S. heatwaves.

 

August will be a good test