2026-2027 Super El Nino

[bluewave]

14 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

It might not be as east-based as either of those two ENSO events, but there's still a lot of time before the anomalies peak. It looks solidly east-based, perhaps evolving into a basinwide event as it weakens. 

Yeah, we could have active forcing from the WPAC and CPAC over to the EPAC with how extensive the warm pool is forecast to become.

Notice how the pattern from the Great Lakes to the Northeast wasn’t all that different between 1997-1998 and 2023-2024.

Forcing either focused near the EPAC in 1997-1998 or more split like 2023-2024 between the WPAC and CPAC along with the EPAC yielded roughly similar results for the Great Lakes and Northeast. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

[forkyfork]

muh backyard snow

[snowman19]

All time record-breaking anomalies of almost +8C showing up off the coast of Peru
 

 

^ “And again!!! Another day, another record for the current #ElNiñoCostero: the sea temperature anomaly measured in #Paita, #Piura yesterday was +7.9°C. Data
@DHN_peru
All of this, while all sea temperature indicators have skyrocketed in the last week. Not to mention the last month.”

And a very pronounced (new) DWKW has formed in the WPAC from the current WWB wind stress:

 

[donsutherland1]

28 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

All time record-breaking anomalies of almost +8C showing up off the coast of Peru
 

 

^ “And again!!! Another day, another record for the current #ElNiñoCostero: the sea temperature anomaly measured in #Paita, #Piura yesterday was +7.9°C. Data
@DHN_peru
All of this, while all sea temperature indicators have skyrocketed in the last week. Not to mention the last month.”

And a very pronounced (new) DWKW has formed in the WPAC from the current WWB wind stress:

 

The ongoing and strengthening El Niño is already contributing to record warm ocean temperatures. Global sea surface temperatures are currently well ahead of those during the development of the 2023-24 El Niño.

[snowman19]

33 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The ongoing and strengthening El Niño is already contributing to record warm ocean temperatures. Global sea surface temperatures are currently well ahead of those during the development of the 2023-24 El Niño.

I don’t think the new EURO ONI/RONI projections are far-fetched at all given the massive SOI crash, the continued big WWBs, the new DWKW, the record warm subsurface, +IOD development, ++PMM, OLR anomalies, MJO/ERW constructive interference and the extremely rapid surface warming that has started. This event is showing signs of going into a “runaway” Bjerknes feedback loop. I would not be surprised if we are into a super El Niño by August 

[snowman19]