2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 Actually, this post by Jeff B. is somewhat misleading imho as a monthly RONI peak of +2.7C wouldn’t be any stronger than 1982. Yes, an ONI monthly peak of +3.3C would by far be the strongest as he said. But RONI is more representative of the El Niño surge, itself, divorced from the CC contribution.

[forkyfork]

13 hours ago, GaWx said:

These annual ENSO threads have always included US winter forecast discussion.

so?

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Weve always discussed the weather in the ENSO threads. Im really going out on a limb here, but I have a feeling the Cansips not caving from its cold idea is what prompted that suggestion. 

It didn't cave last year or the year before either fwiw, and did pretty well with the BN temps forecasts.

[LakePaste25]

26 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It didn't cave last year or the year before either fwiw, and did pretty well with the BN temps forecasts.

I remember it doing pretty poorly early on before the 23-24 nino. If i remember it had a ‘09-‘10 redux with the canadian and -nao block and broad mid latitude troughing in CONUS. 

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Actually, this post by Jeff B. is somewhat misleading imho as a monthly RONI peak of +2.7C wouldn’t be any stronger than 1982. Yes, an ONI monthly peak of +3.3C would by far be the strongest as he said. But RONI is more representative of the El Niño surge, itself, divorced from the CC contribution.

It’s still notable that it could end up the warmest SST’s on record in that region. Maybe “strongest” is not the right word in terms of sensible atmospheric forcing.