2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[Keith Central PA]

2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

someone tell me how the east coast is going to get a snowstorm with that vortex parked there all winter

Because patterns change in every winter for a time. It did in 83 and 2016 briefly and we got historic blizzards. To say it can't snow is a pretty bold statement no matter what agenda you have.

[forkyfork]

1 minute ago, Keith Central PA said:

Because patterns change in every winter for a time. It did in 83 and 2016 briefly and we got historic blizzards. To say it can't snow is a pretty bold statement no matter what agenda you have.

those events were not this strong or far east. the vortex isn't going to move

[forkyfork]

how is forcing going to shift west if the entire warm pool is in the east pacific?

[Keith Central PA]

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

those events were not this strong or far east. the vortex isn't going to move

So when it snows will you come back here and say you were  wrong? You predicting 0 snow for NYC I guess..ok we'll see in March if you were right. And if you are I will commend you forky!

[forkyfork]

50 minutes ago, Keith Central PA said:

So when it snows will you come back here and say you were  wrong? You predicting 0 snow for NYC I guess..ok we'll see in March if you were right. And if you are I will commend you forky!

you're avoiding my question

[GaWx]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

This has been the warmest October 1st to 22nd at Atlanta by a wide margin during a super El Niño.

October 1st to 22nd Average Temperatures at Atlanta

2026….68.6°

2023….65.5°

2015….64.9°

1997….64.5°

1982….65.2°

1972…..62.1°

 Thanks, Chris. Good find!
 
 I went further and looked at all ATL Octs for +1.3+ Ninos back to the late 1800s (24 of them) and found only three that were 1.8+ warmer than normal, which is ~where the full Oct 2026 is projected. But they were all only higher end moderate:

 

1918 (+1.4 Nino): 65.8 (3.1 AN)

1941 (+1.3 Nino): 69.4 (5.9 AN)

2002 (+1.3 Nino): 65.4 (1.8 AN)

 
 The full Oct 2026 is projected to come out to ~66.1F or ~1.8 AN, which would tie with 1899 for the warmest vs normal for any Nino stronger than +1.4 AN (I count 17 of them back to late 1800s). The warmest ATL Oct anomalies for El Niños stronger than +1.4 peak are:

 

1899 (1.8 AN)

1991 (1.6 AN)

2023 (1.4 AN)

1986 (1.2 AN)

1994 (1.1 AN)

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, roardog said:

They’ve been trying to go to a N Pacific low after day 10 for about a month now but it never materializes closer in time. I guess we’ll see if it finally does this time. 

They’re just delaying the inevitable. It’ll happen, whether it’s the last week of October or sometime in November. 

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

how is forcing going to shift west if the entire warm pool is in the east pacific?

shorter wavelengths can help pull the vortex west later in the season, but it’s also negated if the warm pool keeps shifting further east like it has been. Precisely why Feb 1998 didn’t get better. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

you're avoiding my question

I've answered this question, and your highly cerebral response was "I don't give a shit".

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, LakePaste25 said:

shorter wavelengths can help pull the vortex west later in the season, but it’s also negated if the warm pool keeps shifting further east like it has been. Precisely why Feb 1998 didn’t get better. 

Then how was it more favorable earlier in the season if the vortex was so far to the east? I had well over a foot of snow right before xmas... February had no method of cold delivery into the CONUS in 1998....I don't feel like that will be the case this during that particular potion of the season, though it will in the mean. Forcing is also stronger and more expansive not only to the east, but to the west.

I feel like people are getting too carried away with the magnitude and orientation of El Niño and are far too linear in their thought process.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Quick question....we have established that the climate is warming, so why is it news that this was the warmest October in a super El Niño?