2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[LakePaste25]

39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Beyond 15 days the weeklies have been defaulting to El Niño climatology. The forecast from the start of October illustrates this point.

Hopefully, they start releasing the new bias corrected versions of the weeklies to the public so we can see how much skill they have compared to uncorrected version. 

Notice how more of a spilt low pattern between the Aleutians and California developed than the default to October El Niño climatology. 
 

New October 19 to 26 forecast 

 

Old forecast defaulted to October El Niño climatology 

 

 

Not going to lie, it’s frustrating to not see the pattern materialize as I think it’s causing false hope that will ultimately get crushed and creating opportunities for grifting

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right, I'm not saying it's the "golden ticket" for winter, but it certainly doesn't hurt...this also ties into what I am talking about in the northern Pacific later in the season. Not to mention that this particular block in unprecedentedly strong as modeled.

We are just going to have to wait until we get through December and January to see what happens in February.

The issue with the seasonal models is that they default to an El Niño climatology package in February which incudes many weaker events.

2023-2024 and 1997-1998 didn’t necessarily follow the typical February climatology.

This event is much stronger than both of those so we should probably keep expectations low and if we do better than those two years in February it’s a nice surprise. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We are just going to have to wait until we get through December and January to see what happens in February.

The issue with the seasonal models is that they default to an El Niño climatology package in February which incudes many weaker events.

2023-2024 and 1997-1998 didn’t necessarily follow the typical February climatology.

This event is much stronger than both of those so we should probably keep expectations low and if we do better than those two years in February it’s a nice surprise. 

My expectations are low, but not that low..I'll take the over on both of those seasons for snowfall at my locale..especially 2023...1997 will be close. There are pretty clear differences that have been discussed which should cause this season to behave differently than those ones later in the season. That said, early season will probably be worse. I expect a quick recovery after that block...

[GaWx]

 The most similar that I found to what the Euro Weeklies are forecasting late Oct-late Nov were 2016-7, 2009-10, and 1979-80 with the last two being El Niños:

2016 La Niña: similar late Oct/early Nov though late Nov weaker

2009 El Niño: not as weak late Oct/early Nov and weaker mid Nov vs 2026 (dip ~2 weeks later than 2026)

1979 El Niño: not as weak late Oct but early to mid Nov similar to 2026 although late Nov much weaker vs 2026

 

[stadiumwave]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 The most similar past first half of Novs that I found to what the Euro Weeklies are forecasting late Oct-late Nov were 2016-7, 2009-10, and 1979-80 with the last two being El Niños:

2016 La Niña: similar late Oct/early Nov though late Nov weaker

2009 El Niño: not as weak late Oct/early Nov and weaker mid Nov vs 2026 (dip ~2 weeks later than 2026)

1979 El Niño: not as weak late Oct but early to mid Nov the most similar to 2026 although late Nov much weaker vs 2026

 

 

Appreciate the research!