2026-2027 El Nino

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Remember, 1982 didn’t reach this level of heat until October. Plus even 2015-2016 only peaked at 1.91 and not until October.

15-16 actually peaked at 1.97 in August:

2015    8     0.99      1.43       1.97
2015    9     1.04      1.48       1.80
2015   10     1.04      1.51       1.91

[GaWx]

^Thanks. It’s no doubt an extremely warm OHC for so early thanks largely to the very rapid rate of warming earlier this month. That’s why I posted the comparison. However, I feel it’s also important that we keep in mind that this, like ONI, is a measure that is not “relative” to up to date ocean warming. So, in that regard, it’s a bit overdone to the warm side just like ONI is a bit overdone to the warm side in relation to RONI.

@bluewave @snowman19

[GaWx]

 The relative weeklies centered on last week were released this morning. They as expected based on following the dailies show a slowdown in the rate of warming in 3.4 and 3 (from 0.4 the prior week to 0.1 last week). Also, note that Nino 4 cooled 0.1. Nino 1+2, which is more volatile since it covers a much smaller area, cooled 0.3. I expect that this cooling there is just a blip that will reverse soon:

Date………………...1+2………3………3.4……..4

08APR2026         1.1       -0.2       -0.3        0.2
 15APR2026         1.2        0.2        0.1        0.6
 22APR2026         0.9        0.3        0.2        0.5

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

[GaWx]

 The latest BoA relative was just released. As expected, it cooled way down from the April Nino 3.4 prog of +0.6 as it is now a much more realistic -0.2 (that actually will likely end up slightly too cool as I expect it verify -0.1 to 0.0). However, despite that marked cooling of April, it warmed for its Sept prog from ~+2.35 to +2.6. Also, this is the first run with Oct, which it has at ~+2.85.
 
 On the one hand, one should keep in mind how much it overdid ONI in 2023. OTOH, this latest has RONI near the level it had ONI in 2023. So, although we should be aware of a quite possible warm bias at play here thus causing the RONI prog to be overstated, we should also be aware that it is currently implicitly progging ~0.5C warmer RONI vs 2023. Keep in mind that RONI peaked at only ~+1.5 in 2023-4. We’re very likely headed to a significantly warmer RONI peak in 2026-7:

BoA RONI prog from 2 weeks ago: a ridiculous +0.6 April and a +2.35 Sept:

 

Today’s BoA RONI prog: much more realistic cooler -0.2 April but Sept a warmer +2.6; first run with Oct (+2.85):

[PhiEaglesfan712]

OHC peaks - strong/super el ninos

1982-83: 2.07 (October)

1986-88: 1.22 (January 1987)

1991-92: 1.98 (February)

1997-98: 2.56 (October)

2009-10: 1.75 (November)

2015-16: 1.97 (August)

2023-24: 1.45 (November)

[snowman19]

 The relative weeklies centered on last week were released this morning. They as expected based on following the dailies show a slowdown in the rate of warming in 3.4 and 3 (from 0.4 the prior week to 0.1 last week). Also, note that Nino 4 cooled 0.1. Nino 1+2, which is more volatile since it covers a much smaller area, cooled 0.3. I expect that this cooling there is just a blip that will reverse soon:
Date………………...1+2………3………3.4……..4
08APR2026         1.1       -0.2       -0.3        0.2
 15APR2026         1.2        0.2        0.1        0.6
 22APR2026         0.9        0.3        0.2        0.5
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

I agree that we are going to see big warming coming up with the massive DWKW that has just begun propagating east from the WPAC and the continued WWBs.

Also, already seeing signs of a strong +IOD forming with the robust cooling around Australia. That’s going to constructively interfere with the ongoing Nino development/Bjerknes feedback

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

OHC peaks - strong/super el ninos

1982-83: 2.07 (October)

1986-88: 1.22 (January 1987)

1991-92: 1.98 (February)

1997-98: 2.56 (October)

2009-10: 1.75 (November)

2015-16: 1.97 (August)

2023-24: 1.45 (November)

If the new CFS has a clue, there may not be a big disconnect between the traditional ONI and the RONI. It has the RONI peaking at around +2.7C and the traditional ONI peaking at around +3.1C in the November/December time frame. If (IF) correct, it would set a new RONI record, which currently stands at +2.5C for the 1982-83 super El Niño 

[GaWx]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If the new CFS has a clue, there may not be a big disconnect between the traditional ONI and the RONI. It has the RONI peaking at around +2.7C and the traditional ONI peaking at around +3.1C in the November/December time frame. If (IF) correct, it would set a new RONI record, which currently stands at +2.5C for the 1982-83 super El Niño 

I have the most recent CFS RONI mean peak at near the 1982-3 record of +2.5 rather than +2.7:

It is the monthly of Nov that peaks near +2.7, which is near the 1982-3 monthly peak of +2.69 (Jan peak):

 

 So, the most recent CFS has warmed to a 1982-3 redux in strength.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

CPC has +8c anomalies in the central-subsurface, -150m, as of Apr 23. 

[snowman19]

9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

CPC has +8c anomalies in the central-subsurface, -150m, as of Apr 23. 

Yep. Subsurface anomalies are over +8C now. We have left 1972-73, 1982-83 and 2015-16 in the dust. The only El Niño even comparable to being this warm this early in the subsurface is the 1997-98 super El Niño. And the record DWKW has just begun to propagate east

 

 

 

And there are more WWBs to come….

 

 

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

21 hours ago, GaWx said:

^Thanks. It’s no doubt an extremely warm OHC for so early thanks largely to the very rapid rate of warming earlier this month. That’s why I posted the comparison. However, I feel it’s also important that we keep in mind that this, like ONI, is a measure that is not “relative” to up to date ocean warming. So, in that regard, it’s a bit overdone to the warm side just like ONI is a bit overdone to the warm side in relation to RONI.

@bluewave @snowman19

I like to rely more on the ECMWF Nino plumes model than the CFS but we only get one update a month. My guess is that it will show another increase in ONI with the May 5th release as it initializes the current near record OHC for so early in the season. 

It may be that the Nino 1+2 regions not fully cooling off from the last very strong event in 2023-2024 could have something to do with the El Niño coming on so strong with only a 3 year gap between events.

Notice that 2025 was the first full year following an El Niño so strong that stayed warm off of South America. Go back to the previous higher end events since the early 1970s and you will see they all significantly cooled compared to what happened in 2025. Also note how much warmer the entire North Pacific remained.

 

[A-L-E-K]

On 4/21/2026 at 11:21 AM, A-L-E-K said:

lots of denial itt

 

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

 

Get ready 2 not torch in May per latest EW. No denying that!

Next 4 weeks:

 

[snowman19]