2026-2027 El Nino

[snowman19]

These are the mechanisms causing the record-breaking WWB and accelerating El Niño development:
 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Only super event with normalish snowfall in my area...still warm, of course.

Are the only super events 1877-78, 1982-83, 1997-98, & 2015-16?

 

 

[nycwinter]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Are the only super events 1877-78, 1982-83, 1997-98, & 2015-16?

 

 

global ocean temps from previous super el nino were cooler then what is forecasted to be this year super el nino. the 82 one global ocean temps were much cooler then normal..

[GaWx]

7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Are the only super events 1877-78, 1982-83, 1997-98, & 2015-16?

 

 

Add to those using a peak of 2+ RONI for 1950+: 1888-9, 1957-8, 1965-6, 1972-3, 1991-2

[snowman19]

The SOI has crashed to strong negative. -33 today. The 30 day average is now negative

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Eric Webb's list has 1877-78, 1888-89, 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16 listed as super el ninos. Those are the only years when both the ONI and RONI were above +2C. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

If we are going to go high end, I just assume the RONI not lag the ONI......I would prefer to take my chances with both in sync and try to pop a huge GOA low. I understand the risks with east-based and such, but keep in mind that I'm conceding a mild winter and am just looking for a window to get a good storm. My largest fear is some El nino/cool ENSO bastard-child, along the lines of 2023 that won't pop a se trough.

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If we are going to go high end, I just assume the RONI not lag the ONI......I would prefer to take my chances with both in sync and try to pop a huge GOA low. I understand the risks with east-based and such, but keep in mind that I'm conceding a mild winter and am just looking for a window to get a good storm.

1982-83 was an east-based super El Niño and we had the megalopolis blizzard. That said, I do agree with you that if we do go super, which is looking increasingly likely, it’s going to be a mild winter